Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 17/12/2013 07:55

This is the calm before the storm... get ready.

[1madmarky] 17/12/2013 07:48

Was hoping for more fixed plants for next year, but if they knock out half a dozen mobile units that should make up for it.

[orslega] 17/12/2013 07:47

"Current planning now envisages construction of up to three additional full size plants in 2014 beyond the plants currently in construction."

Current planning, so I guess that could easily change things.ie more plants....under promise over deliver is the message....much preferable imo

thought this was interesting development....untapped territory...

"While the Group continues to secure additional sites for Iofina conventional production plants, the opportunity to take on closed down oil and gas production sites which have high iodine levels in the produced brine is being examined. With the success of Iofina's technology, this approach could well prove to be commercially attractive from iodine production alone with no capital cost for wells"

[jasisdad] 17/12/2013 07:45

The market have over reacted negatively to the last few "positive" rns so who knows what will happen now. Still holding as don't need to sell. But don't think I will look at share price for a while!!

[n3tleylucas] 17/12/2013 07:42

This is the company profit warning I expected.

Hammer Time.

75p is now on.

[naphar] 17/12/2013 07:40

No idea noli. Maybe they are just trying to be realistic given the number of plants they managed to deliver in 2013, it could be that tower delivery will still be an issue, but since it does not tell us no idea. And the mobiles are in addition.

I sincerely hope this is a matter of under promise and over deliver, but I will look at it from the basis of they should do in 2014 what they have planned to do.

It's actually quite a clear RNS, although lacking the numbers people want to get, I does clarify things left blurry at an earlier stage.

[noli] 17/12/2013 07:38

If i remember correctly, iof filled a big order in march/april with the build up of the last inventory, it looks like they are filling it again.

[noli] 17/12/2013 07:35

Is the reduction in the number of plants due to the cost of a prilling tower. Any thoughts?

[grahamhacker] 17/12/2013 07:29

DcgrayYes, but I was anticipating on my numbers that another 6 units would add a further 700-1000. The numbers now depend on what a few mobile units will produce, but in reality mobile units will produce much less than fixed units. We'll have to wait & see but IOF are keeping exact amounts close to their chests.Perhaps I was hoping that production levels might have gone up a tick. Still good prospects for 2014, but derampers will out in abundance!

[dcgray21] 17/12/2013 07:21

Graham - output remains at 700-1000 for the 6 units . There will be 3 additional next year + to be determined number of mobile units . Seems like IOF may have decided the model works best with a heavier weighting to the mobile side .

[grahamhacker] 17/12/2013 07:14

Disappointing rns. Only 3 new units in 2014 & output remains at 700-1000. Real profitability delayed to 2014

[stockonomist] 17/12/2013 07:13

Sounds like a profit warning ?

IOF - pronounced Ooof..


Overall revenue in 2013 is likely to be comparable to 2012 levels. This is due to expected 2013 shipments at Iofina Chemical now being delayed into 2014. External iodine sales which were previously expected in 2013 are now expected to commence in 2014, resulting in an inventory build-up. To the extent that iodine produced by the Group is used in the production of iodine derivatives and not sold outside the Group, the value of such iodine production is a component of the derivatives revenue at Iofina Chemical and will not appear as raw iodine revenue from Iofina Resources. The Group's overall margins benefit from using iodine produced at Iofina Resources, due to its advantageous production cost. Considering the lower revenue expectations, EBITDA excluding share option charges, will likely be similar to 2012 levels.

[square1] 17/12/2013 06:47

I am surprised that some still expect exit rates of 700mtpa by YE and given this was based on 6 plants do not see it as achievable myself. However, with IOs 4 & 5 coming on stream in early 2014 there will be a decent production growth in the first Qtr. It is clear to me that the Company is not going to achieve the very bullish numbers often quoted on here, the share price is clearly saying that, However, that doesn't mean the shares aren't cheap on what they are ACTUALLY achieving. If people are disappointed by exit rates in the 500s mtpa at YE with a positive outlook for 2014 then they are barmy IMO. I am positive, but realistic. I think the shares are cheap and will go higher but please, stop kidding yourselves that the 'dream numbers' are going to be achieved. What we'll get, I'm sure, will be good in relation to where we are now, with plenty of growth going forward.

[ramu kumar] 17/12/2013 01:57

No info from BOD on build progress IO4/5.

No info from BOD on production output (is IO3 fully commissioned, IO2 & IO1 up and running at optimum levels?).

No info from BOD on margins (sales less opex).

No info from BOD about helium, oil etc. etc.

No info from BOD if water application is minor glitch or otherwise.

However, we have lots of info on Chile, Japan, world stats on iodine consumption, GDL, GDG, talk about world iodine domination, 32000mt etc. etc. when we are not even certain if we'll do 700mt this year!

Then you find posters painting a rosy picture about potential output, ridiculous P/E, astronomical profit figures and world domination in Iodine!

Guys, we cannot continue to be blinkered - this guy's ramblings, irrelevant reasons, excuses, diversions has to be seen as one big ride. Then you dream and dream and dream and lose all sight of reality - c'mon, we are not even sure about 700mt this year.

Talk about diatribe, this guy deserves an Oscar - don't agree with me then just look at the share price over the last 6 months. I was taken for a RIDE and don't want the rest of you to suffer the same fate. Fortunately, I did diversify at the right time and that was pure luck and therefore can sit out the massive paper loss in IOF.

We want figures from BOD on output, net profit, cash flow, concrete orders confirming forecast sales, capex, long term liabilities, patents etc., not ramblings based on nudges, winks and the long awaited PING!

SG, you started this thread but you do not own IOF - you were extremely churlish to ban good posters like frog, even more arrogant to continuously run down GDL,GDG and other stocks and adopted an extremely superior tone when you cannot even write correctly - half your posts are either deliberately vague or you really cannot be bothered to construct a sentence to convey a clear message.

Whilst I appreciate everyone's investment strategy is his or her own decision, it will be remiss of anyone to say YOUR posts did NOT affect anybody's investment in IOF. So my polite request is please do not post anything if you are not certain of the facts - I think most of us here are a bit tired of your nudges, winks, vague sentences etc. Oops, I forgot the infamous PING. Thanks.

[superg1] 16/12/2013 22:36

Riki

The brokers have the opex forecast hence the mention of them in their notes.

Obviously individual plants, will have different opex levels based on production levels, so the actual overall level will take time to work through in full year results.

All we have for now is guidance of $10 to $20 per and in another case $10 to $15. I totally agree that actual opex would be better. For sites like io2 we may be under $10, but that needs to be balanced against lower ppm sites.

They will have surely based the forecast on the average production rate anticipated

[bobbyshilling] 16/12/2013 22:11

Rik, We do have some figures to go on; they have been posted many times and we can work them out through logical conclusion. It is just for the moment they have not been rns'd , but if you wait for that, you can expect to pay a lot more for the shares, so once again I say it is up to the individual to make decisions on what we know, and can reasonably expect using that info.

[wizard2020] 16/12/2013 21:54

Jackabite filtered

[rikivilla] 16/12/2013 21:41

Bob - why do you say ill informed when we have no figures to go on - if we do then please point me in the right direction?

[rikivilla] 16/12/2013 21:21

Fair enough CE but how the h*ll(sorry) can we value the company in its current state until we do?

[crosseyed] 16/12/2013 21:13

What might turn out to be the case is that an upgrade of plants might be what will happen in practice to incorporate technological (and computing control) improvements over time. Of course it is very early days, but already it has been reported by IOF that IO#2 and then IO#3 have benefited from technical improvements derived from operational experience.

Thus, the essential, and expensive, initial components (towers, collection pipelines, etc) would not need replacement or modification but other componenst might be added, replace or modified.

I would therefore expect that early plants might undergo a series of capital spending justified by enhancements to production.

c

Rikivilla,
Do you really need to use profanities in your posts. We have recently had far too much of that.
c

[superg1] 16/12/2013 20:51

GH

The two existing players in the US (tech can't be used for new sites) have been around for 25 and 35 years in the same area.

Individual oil wells can go on for 40 years. the iodine content doesn't decline anything like oil production drop off, it much more of a slow process.

I hear iochem, who have been in OK for 25 years, are seeing a ppm decline and are having to put the produced water back into the same level, to keep pressures up. They have been in that same area for that time.

On the site they say they have 16 producing wells at 300 to 400ppm

[naphar] 16/12/2013 20:45

Graham, crosseyed,
The FRP towers were said to have about a 15 year life. The Ti ones were longer, but given the cash generation of a plant, the expected speedier delivery of FRP towers and the ability to make them larger (the Ti ones were as big as they could ship), the move to FRP made sense.

Other parts such as lumps etc may well have a shorter life, other parts longer. Keep replacing pumps etc as and when they reach end of life and 15 years should be possible.

[1madmarky] 16/12/2013 20:26

I would have thought 10 to 15 years depending on how long it takes for the oil flow rate to drop to a point where it's uneconomical. At which point iof could take the oil lease and continue. However the Japanese have been extracting iodine from the same location for quite some time. So guess we will have to wait and see. Don't think it will be an issue for us somehow.