Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[grahamhacker] 15/12/2013 09:57

This may have been presented before but I can't find.I'm trying to get a handle on the big picture on the profitability of IOF. In their rns half yearly report dated 25/9/13 it was stated that with #1-#6 fully operational annual production would be 700-1000 mt pa. (Assume 800)Using numbers already provided this equates to a gross profit of £14m* pa. Can anybody confirm my approx numbers as they look very low & perhaps 800mt is not 800,000 kgs?*Mkt price £25 ($40) per kg Opex £8 ($12.5) per kg Gross profit £17 per kgCalculation for units 1-6 pa:*Say 800mt pa output x £17*per kg gross profit = £14mMany thanks for any help

[monty panesar] 15/12/2013 07:24

Great to see that Iodine prices are still around $50/kg. Not that it affects IOF that much since all production is going through IOC right now.

[rybnikcat] 15/12/2013 01:01

superg1

Just catching up on posts at this late hour.

I have immense respect for your research and analytical abilities, but you owe frog1 an apology. How could you suggest he take his posts to another thread? No matter whose posts he reminds you of, he has not written a single thing that any reasonable person could object to.

Although I am grateful for the abundant information that you provide about IOF and its competitors, your own contributions are not perfect; some sentences use such poor English that cryptic skills are needed to decipher them.

[superg1] 15/12/2013 00:15

And in Friday's news

Ramp up of Chilean production expected to slow in 2014 as costs hit margins

Iodine prices have remained steady around the $50/kg mark in December and are expected to do so for the rest of the year, sources have indicated to IM.

Prices for the mineral slipped steadily throughout the first three quarters of 2013 before settling in the $45-55/kg range in September,...


That's all that can be viewed on the industrial minerals website, as we know the 'ramp up' has already hit the buffers with SQM closing mines, and Sirocco suspending operations, it looks like this is the bottom, and lows 40's mentioned is not coming, based on that info. That's break even or loss making for some.

I suppose they would have to sell the low quality iodine for less, so whoever that is may struggle.

[superg1] 15/12/2013 00:07

On pricing in recent times, I knew i'd read it somewhere, Ioditech, their last news update from Sept-:

'In a new twist to the Chilean iodine market, some material currently being offered by a few Chilean mines is below traditional quality standards, and the sale price reflects this lower quality. This type of material is deemed unacceptable for use in complex products made by some manufacturers. Prices for this lower grade iodine are considerably less expensive and are a real benefit to those companies that can use it.'

That may explain something I heard about Algorta and Cosayach prices all over the place.

The poor iodine issue came up re a Chile miner earlier this year, I believe it was Algorta, so I wonder if it was them this time around.

However the report says 'a few' Chilean mines.

[napoleon 14th] 14/12/2013 23:35

bag - not unreasonable, but then didn't AIG (the US insurer)
supposedly know their business?

[superg1] 14/12/2013 22:25

Silver

Not a red herring , non core, but not rejected. Those are words used many those that don't understand 'draft'. Not a point of hope or anything else, just a fact

Smile on a passport photo or dare to cross the line in the signature, and your passport application is rejected. Send the Krays look photo and ta dah the passport is awarded.

The iodine is core that is true and should be lucrative. I'll keep digging away at Chile to see what the iodine mines there dump next.

[baguette] 14/12/2013 22:11

Someone on here a few days/week ago said that Ennismore were betting against IOF getting water approval and this may or may not prove to be true although the current situation indicates they were shrewd enough to smell something. More concerning is that they are still holding out even with io4/io5 builds expected within weeks and some update on io2/io3 output expected soon - do they know something else we don't. Surely they could close right now with a handsome profit so why risk more.

[silverpen] 14/12/2013 21:20

Additonally, Ennismore (as far as I understand) has not close its postion so there may be more volatility before the inevitable rise.

[silverpen] 14/12/2013 21:14

Has everyone lost the plot!
How many more derampers do we need?
The reason for the fall in price is simple - low volume of trades at the present time encourage huge swings in the market.
Margin calls exacerbate this x fold. The water permit is partly a red herring as this was never truly factored in to the price.
The fundamentals for this company are still there. Nothing has changed other than perhaps the IOF bod not being more bullish. Not the right time to hide your lamp under a bushel.
I know that under expectation spooks the market but there is a real backbone to IOF and Superg has given many excellent posts and research to support this.
Come on IOF bod give a strong RNS to this.

[noujay] 14/12/2013 20:11

Many thanks Jackabite you truly are the gift that keeps on giving!

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 20:06

Noujay

dear oh dear!! you just don't get it, do you? lol I would not take advice of Superhyperbole if my life depended on it.

Tell, you what, you run along now and I will spare you the red neck.

[monty panesar] 14/12/2013 20:06

In 3 weeks time we will be able to say it is on a conservative P/E of less than 3 for next year!

[che7win] 14/12/2013 19:42

Of course, IOF is a growth stock, further to my earlier post, a forward P/E of 10 applied to 19p EPS just isn't realistic.

A P/E of 15 applied over the next 6 months at some stage means 300p as a target.
If water does get granted, another 50p on top.

Don't listen to the derampers, they have no argument when it comes to the figures.

[hitsha3] 14/12/2013 19:36

No worrys mate.

[festario] 14/12/2013 19:25

Hitsha, thats the best post you have made in a long while my friend.My only regret is not listening to SuperG's so called ramping a year earlier. I would have been massively in profit. I'm not, but I will be again, as I was before my own greed took over.

[superg1] 14/12/2013 19:19

hitsha

Two options filter or this approach -:



lol

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 19:13

bronco

tut tut, that's no way to behave is it? NL is a good poster and stood up to the master ramper.

[freshvoice] 14/12/2013 19:13

Jackabite
so how much iodine do you think they will produce next year?
Any?
500kg
800kg
1600kg?

[broncowarrior] 14/12/2013 19:11

Is jackabite the new nestleylucas without the charm or wit?