Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[baguette] 14/12/2013 10:06

Just concentrating on iodine. For PI's surely the issue is whether we believe io4 & io5 are just waiting for towers etc.

I re-iterate that if Management care about PI sensitivities they should give guidance on output from io3 as it seems that is the first of the "new wave" plants of the future and absolutely fundamental to our future.

I am itching to know if it is working well not only from the point of view of its concept and engineering but also as it relates to the customer's interface etc. - this can only be judged by some output figures. So many things can go wrong and until we are given some information it is easy to believe the worst.

Until we know that, it is hard to even be sure that io4 & 5 will be built in Q1 14. This is a concept and a growth company for which frankly very little has been fully tested in the delivery phase yet. Its either still a great opportunity or a growing list of excuses.

[rogerbridge] 14/12/2013 10:02

I believe anyone who was frightened into selling would have done so by now. However it looks on paper, you do not loose money unless you sell.
Those selling short have to buy back and if an II or two decide to take this opportunity to start buying, the shorters who have taken a position recently will quickly be under water.
Personally, I do not like seeing my paper profits shrink, or for seeing friends and family who have holdings watch their holdings reduce in value. Having said that I firmly believe in the IOF business model and I am quite prepared to wait for profits to explode upwards and the share price to follow.
We will see what happens next week when I have more funds available, if the price does retreat I will be in for more.

There seems a fair amount of animosity on this thread, I hope people keep their emotions out of their decision making when investing. Fear and greed are one thing, hatred is another, it can quickly turn into it hurts me but it hurts him more. Logic goes out of the window.

[frog1] 14/12/2013 10:00

Does anyone know where I can find how much of the iodine produced goes to IOF Chemical and how much the maximum capacity of the chemical division is. Until this point is reached, Iodine production will drive down the COS figure as % sales for the derivatives as opposed to driving the top line directly. Until this point, as all/most revenue will come from derivatives which from interim statement derivatives are higher margin anyway, the increased sales of derivatives will need to be calculated and then the savings for use of in house iodine used for forecasting revenues and profit rather than just using selling price of iodine against cost of production which I have used for the rough/simlified calcs I have used so far.

Also does anyone who has been to an investor's presentation know of the plans for the chemical division i.e. is the strategy to focus on Iodine production or to use the iodine produced to increase production of the derivatives? Will the chemical division be expanded?

[che7win] 14/12/2013 09:49

The fall is similar to June, forced margin sellers fleeced with a bit of shorting thrown in.

Still, it has allowed the likes of myself and others I know to grab more at bargain prices.

Forgot to say, I expect an update on production won't be far off, maybe next week. Let's face it, anything mildly positive to neutral will have a stampede of buyers with all those sellers wanting to recover positions.

[n3tleylucas] 14/12/2013 09:41

This tapped 158 on Wednesday, and closed 141.25 a day later. Did somebody know something? And why did this close at 124? Surely if 'all this' is merely a paperwork exercise, and non-core, the bounce should have been greater?

Is there something else looming?

[che7win] 14/12/2013 09:34

Monty,
5 plants commissioned by end of next month would equate to a run rate of around 1200 MT.

At iodine $45kg selling price, that's 19.2p EPS ignoring tax which should be minimal next year.

So, if we do no more than place two ordered towers rumoured to be delivered to Oklahoma already onto the already built 4 and 5 plants in January, we make 19p EPS before tax.

19.2 EPS and nothing priced in for any further roll out next year. Nothing for plant 6 to plant 12, no growth, nothing else! We surely will have another 3 to 5 plants rolling out tripling production but nothing is factored in.

Don't forget, we are part responsible for the Chile pain. We are no longer customers for 300MT of Chile iodine as we are supplying ourselves. For us, it means higher margins.

The market here has panicked, dropping because others perceived that fellow shareholders would sell on the water news and margined holders have been forced sellers.
The arrival of trolls smelling a short term profitable trade is quite obvious. They tell their lies about the company having debt etc hoping to maximise their trade. Newcomers arrive, negative views, next thing they're buying shed loads, I've seen it all before.

Take a look at a stock called PER. It has revised earnings after the profits warning this week of 10p EPS, it bounced 20% yesterday even on forward P/E of 20.

The rise here will be swift when greed takes over.
For long term holders, the company is already delivering, we know that, so relax and let the market find the correct level.

I would suggest that three plants operating with another two awaiting towers before imminent completion and another 2 expected next quarter means the short term noise should be ignored.

Water is a side show below 170p, ignore it, even though it has a chance of being granted.

PS: Crazy, your article is excellent, well done.

[monty panesar] 14/12/2013 09:02

Yesterday seems a storm in a tea cup to me. We only know about the Montana Water application as it is on a government website. In North Dakota they company are getting on with their application but don't have to comment as it is behind closed doors.

Reading shareknowledge article it looks like we have 2 new plants coming on line in next 6 weeks.

It seems some short term traders left the party which can't be a bad thing in the medium term.

[the librarian] 14/12/2013 08:55

What a pleasant fellow, have a lovely christmas.

[mr paul b] 14/12/2013 02:12

Jack off , what's your problem ?its obvious your loosing shed loads on GDL.so please take your tedious drivell someware else , because you are clogging up this thread with your monotonous clap trap

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 01:40

jagsta

you miss the point but that's fine. I have no gripe with you, it's your master sooperpooh!!

The big dump master!! superdump!! Him and his gangs days are numbered as far as this company is concerned. The claims were horrendous!!!!

£6 he shouts....I say £1 in double quick time then the panic on a level never seen here before as the debt and the cash burn filters through.

I can picture scenes of anarchy, people jumping out at any level to conserve what they can when it all becomes apparent that the debt and cash burn is to much.

They say the love the fact that iodine prices are falling, yeah!! cause that will help the bottom line, cash burn and debt lol

It's all coming home to roost like the big daddy chicken superpooh!!

[jagsta386] 14/12/2013 01:16

Ha you're loving it just tell what you've lost

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 01:10

pmsl

Get some sleep, you're going to need all the strength you can muster for when this tanks on Monday!

[jagsta386] 14/12/2013 00:55

Superg superg superg superg

[jagsta386] 14/12/2013 00:53

We're you been when we needed you there's a bullish update coming in the week you gonna be around

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 00:52

give me yours :)

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 00:52

jagsta

here you go muppet 999

[jagsta386] 14/12/2013 00:41

The truth u muppet

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 00:08

brhukatee

Your right, the panic will set in @ £1.00 because that's a psychological barrier that if breached will trigger a multitude of sells. The shorters are at work and are not letting this go as the debt mountain and cash burn play nicely into their strategy.

I can see the £1.00 coming very quickly and then the capitulation phase will set in and all hell will break loose.

[brhukatee] 13/12/2013 23:50

Ennismore will surely drive this down from here, the real panic will come as it approaches 100 pence I think? The company will to be fair on previous form try and rush out an RNS to steady this sinking ship but based on their previous woeful efforts it may well be another own goal and a match winner for Ennismore?
Anything but a Happy Xmas for all holders I think.

[jackabite] 13/12/2013 23:24

Someone say my name?

ah, yes they did. Bob why the need to highlight I am filtered lol is it to prove your loyalty to the messiah, the one and only superpooh?

[bobsworth] 13/12/2013 23:14

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