Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 09/9/2013 23:57

che7: thanks for link. Product list shows iodine compounds (not surprisingly) but with 2 exceptions: sodium selenite and zinc selenite.

Anyone know why?

[che7win] 09/9/2013 17:25

Wait until they find out whats on their doorstep...

www.ajay-sqm.com/resource_iodine.aspx

[che7win] 09/9/2013 17:05

On iodine purity, commercial crude iodine normally has a minimum purity of 99.5%. Impurities are chiefly water, sulfuric acid, iron, and insoluble materials. The USP XVII specifies iodine content of not less than 99.8%. The Committee on Analytical Reagents of the American Chemical Society allows a maximum of 0.005% total bromine and chlorine and 0.010% nonvolatile matter.

[che7win] 09/9/2013 16:25

Argh, STVG up again.

[superg1] 09/9/2013 15:04

Bog

Should get CEO news and potentially IO3 finished in that time, so we'll just have to see.

[bogg1e] 09/9/2013 13:58

thanks phoenix and sg. So this sub 150p static sideways channel is just indecision then? Hmm, like you phoenix i don't think it will last long. Just over two weeks to go til the interrims.

[superg1] 09/9/2013 13:46

Bog

I heard there are no major sellers but just the odd one at that price.

[phoenixs] 09/9/2013 13:24

Bogg1e, Certainly looks like it to me, but when it breaks up it will change from being a resistance level to being one of support. Don't think we have long to wait now.

[bogg1e] 09/9/2013 13:16

SG, cheers, wish i had extra funds short term just to buy in, but hope you get your target.

Is there something going on behind the scenes regarding 150p? The resistance strikes me as odd, it doesnt feel like a tug of war between bulls and bears, it looks to me like the break out is trying to force its way through. Is someone trying to keep the price down?

[rovi57] 09/9/2013 11:15

bit strong for you Superg " Bunch of Wombats " indeed lol

[superg1] 09/9/2013 10:29

Bog

FUM should hit media wise in the coming weeks, results should show the plan and they are this week.

I'm expecting £1 plus by the year end, but it could be sooner if an insti or two start to buy.

Good old IGNIS, bought on the highs, and got rid of them on the lows, so if anyone thinks insti's have better knowledge, then that is an example of a bunch of wombats.

[superg1] 09/9/2013 10:26

Che

I haven't looked deeply che, but there is something in the US system about technology credits which may apply to IOF to re their iosorb tech.

[bogg1e] 09/9/2013 10:26

Sorry off topic. FUM doing well. Dont have any (no cash) but was tempted to t trade after sg1 made me aware of it and Hurricane said a good september was on the cards. Was tempted to buy at 62p, now 75 to sell in a matter of days. Oh well! (good luck FUM holders btw)

[che7win] 09/9/2013 09:48

Superg,
the relevent bit in the Annual accounts is here:

"The Group has accumulated tax losses of approximately $15,022,809 (2011: $13,891,622) carried forward which may be deductible from future taxable profits subject to agreement with the relevant tax authorities.

The Iofina Chemical operation, located in the U.S., will likely be the first location that will report Federal tax expense. This tax rate will be a consolidated rate for the Group, which will be based on an escalating tax scale. Initially we would anticipate this tax rate to be approximately 22%."

I noticed the comment in the Ioditech report on poor quality supply, interesting.

I can't help thinking that IOF could increase their recycling of iodine a lot more in future too; this is around 1/3 rd of Japanese output.

[superg1] 09/9/2013 09:07

Yes Che

re tax I understand they collected a decent pot to offset on the acquisition of HS chemicals.

On the iodine quality front, I did note in that Ioditech report re the poor quality iodine from a few Chile sources.

I will dig out the IOF reference which quotes plants producing high quality iodine.

I'm just wondering if in the scramble to get in the game, the smaller players have been processing poor quality Caliche (clays in it). It is known as a problem in some areas in Chile.


On the SQM front, they had two areas coming to an end of their resource viability. I have since heard recently they have closed two mines.

[che7win] 09/9/2013 07:57

Selling price of iodine per kg currently above $50 kg.
Estimated opex for IOF $10 - $15 per kg so around $35 to $40 margin.

Scenario: Lets say estimated selling price was $40
Opex: $20, so half the margin of the above.

Profit: $20 per kg or $20m per 1000 tonnes.

We are on track for annualised rate of 1500 Mt by end of 2013, increasing by 250MT minimum every two months after that.

1500MT equates to $30m profit, £20m. Little tax at this stage, but from the annual report, it looks like tax might be around 25% or lower.

Add in chemical division and water profits and we would be making around £20m after tax on this scenario (even including assumed tax), supporting a share price of 160p at P/E of 10. If we grow at 20% a year, P/E of 20 means a share price of 320p.

Even with these extremely pessimist figures, the share is underpinned and undervalued IMHO.

Now calculate for OPEX at $10 and add 50% to the above profits, then adjust the selling price upwards and recalculate.

Now compare to Chile operators with costs above $30 kg, they can not stay profitable at our price points. For instance, did you know truck drivers in Chile are being paid $80,000 plus another 25% bonus?

www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-05/in-chiles-copper-boom-miners-spread-the-wealth

That's what we mean by disruptive technology, we can keep rolling out at just about any price and make a profit.

BTW, IOF have marketing agreements with other companies for some of its products, I did plenty of research over the weekend e.g.
www.iofina.com/perch/resources/iofina-chemical-viachem-press-release-final.pdf

Also, the annual report 2012 highlighted the tax rate will be much lower than my previous assumption. It also adds colour to the experienced teams handling the rollout...

[silverpen] 09/9/2013 04:48

Roboben
If you click 'movers' next to the 'top holders' in the link you will see Old Mutual have increased their stake to 6.28 million shares!

[n3tleylucas] 08/9/2013 23:36

What happens when the bond can't be repaid? Is this senior debt? Do Stena have any claim on assets? Find out, this is important.

[roboben] 08/9/2013 23:10

Silver pen - The same page quotes Old Mutual's holding as zero, which it claims is 4.94 percent. A tad unreliable?

[silverpen] 08/9/2013 21:45

Superg1
Only my second post but please refer to the FT link where you will see Iofina has 39% of its shares held by IS's with BlackRock holding just under 5%

[superg1] 08/9/2013 20:24

Pug

We don't need an rns to know who is doing what. That's just the way it is.

Old Mutual added quite a few in the last few months.

If I was going for a lucky guess I'd say AXA had been selling but don't have a lot left, they may be out by now.

In fact there is no serious supply as far as 'we' know

[pugugly] 08/9/2013 19:40

SG: Timing re Blackrock ? No rns that I can see within the last 6 month. Found L&G were were selling down, also Clients of Hargreqaves Hale - Old Mutual buying price uncertain as rns on day of spike down also ref to a CFD

[superg1] 08/9/2013 18:20

Wieldy

There is a growing interest in IOF which doesn't get shared on here, as will be seen in the coming weeks.

Blackrock and others have been adding.

The chem div results will be just fine, and I sense IOF will be entering that delivery stage.

Many want CEO news and I doubt they will be disappointed.

[monty panesar] 08/9/2013 16:40

Unfortunately the ST describes it as iodine exploration which is wrong as it is iodine production.A big difference as there is nothing hit and miss about their business model. Plants are only going in where they know there is iodine in the brines.