Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 02/9/2013 22:17

Boggle Don't read this, for the others it's fine.



There are recent articles but this one explains it well. An old tech that they see as suitable for the tight shales.

[molatovkid] 02/9/2013 22:10

SuperG et al....I think you make real strides as either an investor or trader when you start to think for yourself. You have to be able to learn from your mistakes and develop self discipline.

[phsycho] 02/9/2013 21:51

Oh I dunno Warren.. always good to know u have spelt ur name correctly on the pavement...

[warrensearle] 02/9/2013 21:48

Traders use TA like a drunk uses a lamppost - for support not illumination

[superg1] 02/9/2013 21:37

Scrut

I thought the facts suggest that most investors lose money, traders too. If that is correct then the answer is to avoid all TA, tips sheets and investment advice, otherwise you become an average investor and are doomed to fail.

For the shirt few years that I have watched shares I have noted a common trend and have mentioned it many times.

WB sums it up with his, be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

If the stats are right, it's only then that you can increase your chances of investment success. So following all the experience and advice to invest, statistically will lead to failure.

[scrutable] 02/9/2013 20:54

titus

Off topic with sticky oscillations for which I ask fellow Pi,s for their indulgence.

Engineering Science made me prepare statistics for Finals - certainly not in search of precision - the very opposite - the mathematics of imprecision perhaps.

In the struggle to predict the future we have to exploit probabilities. Never any certainties about. It's all about reducing the probabilities of Loss. If we as investors don't aim for that and succeed it is we who are lost.

[xippy] 02/9/2013 17:35

Likely to vwap, volume weighted average price.

[investmentguru] 02/9/2013 16:46

Maybe 'they' are waiting for the Janitor to fix the Radar?

[worraps] 02/9/2013 16:37

......so can you tell us when 'they' WON'T be keeping it under 150p? Thanks.

[superg1] 02/9/2013 16:33

I'm chuckling, as I was on the phone earlier stating 'they' would try to keep it under 150 at the end of the day. lol

[titus10] 02/9/2013 16:32

SCRUTABLE

I'm clearly ageing faster than you as in my 84th year I can no long distinguish China from Russia. Thanks for your gentle correction.

Yes, fractals: same concept - newly minted. Nothing new under the sun.

Your "sticky" has intrigued me for some while. We are taught to seek precision - especially as engineers - and so much of the rubbish sold as 'technical analysis' for fortune hunters in capital markets is about drawing straight lines on crooked plans (a linear scaled price chart, as I so often observe, distorts the relative value of changes on the vertical axis, yet straight lines go on getting stuck on bent scales by neophyte analysts, just as 'fundamental' analysts can project calculations and convictions so insistently, defying an unknown future).

Nature is more generous, building in variations in the possible ways to get somewhere, dependent upon unforeseeable changes in inputs and influences. Dinghy racers in a bay understand that, as do many hunted animals, beset by a predator.

So the oscillations which prevail throughout our environment may be less predictable than we might like, but, treated with the understanding that can grow from working with, rather than against them, can become useful enough in due course, one finds.

So much seems to become lost, or invisible, in the age of the sound-bite. I'm glad to have been born and educated to cogitate.

They say there's more than one way to skin a cat. Ruefully, perhaps, yes: Warren Buffet, just four days younger than I and almost infinitely more successful than I've been, did it his way rather more effectively. But I like what the study of market activity, shorn of all the blather, has taught me about how living creatures act and interact on this globe. And it's enabled me to make a reasonable living, rat-race free, since my 30s, for which I'm truly grateful.

[warrensearle] 02/9/2013 16:31

IOF in need of some CSD - cannot maintain a rise !

[che7win] 02/9/2013 16:08

Engelo,
You can actually detect icebergs a lot of the time, if a stock refuses to decline in the face of sells or vice-versa, that is a telling picture. I quite often try dummy buys/sells to gauge how much the market is willing to trade.

I'm no expert, I have a crude way that works a lot of the time for me. It's just one way to get an edge and that's what's needed, I find the market will always find a way to humble you. It does not hand over profit easily!

It's important for me to find the turn in the market, giving not only me confidence to buy profitably, but others to come on board.

[engelo] 02/9/2013 15:58

che7: snag with watching in real time is that some trades take longer to report than others ;-) And watch out for icebergs: or perhaps you cam diagnose them from the trading pattern?

Think we'd agree that to-day's atmosphere is a whole lot healthier. Imo there's a big psychological factor in a new month. For short term traders (none on here of course) 'Later this month' sounds reasonably close, 'next month' sounds impossibly distant :-).

[che7win] 02/9/2013 15:36

Writz,
I tend to watch the trades in real time, but only when I think their is a chance to make a profitable trade or when I'm trying to time a buy into a stock.

[scrutable] 02/9/2013 14:05

titus

I like the way you have just described the patterns: ripples inside waves which form inside the tides.

All self similar like fractals

I have long described this picture as of 3 Russian dolls one inside the other inside the largest, but your language is more explicit. Thank you.

I find these oscillations repeat - and are therefore very predictive once you allow that they are 'sticky'- ie not smooth - and do so until trading volume compels a break through, when they restart between two new steeper trend lines.

[writz] 02/9/2013 14:04

Che7win (and Titus) - thanks for your thoughts - fascinating stuff.

Che7win, do you literally watch and feel the trades going through in real time, or is your analysis based on retrospectively reading the volume on the intraday chart?

FWIW, I find it hard to divorce my reading of buying/selling patterns from the wider context. For example, we've just touched a rising trendline from 2011, which is a point at which one would expect buying to increase if probably-positive news is imminent - a good time to buy the rumor if nothing more.

So I guess my question was about how much confidence one places in the price action itself (and how reliable and visible that information is). Since other influences can come to bear (news leaks, panic, triggered stops, aggressive market makers), I find myself wanting to go behind the price movements to see what the other human psyches out there might be responding to.

[worsleybird] 02/9/2013 14:03

Lets not forget we have a whole new band of buyers now entering the market who did not in the past buy AIM shares. I have noticed on RNS's recently sellers clearing out or topslicing after the RNS and the void being filled by buyers - the price then continues to tick up steadily.

Different strategies for new times.

[jointer13] 02/9/2013 13:52

another one who appreciates it as well noli...well done.

[rogerbridge] 02/9/2013 13:51

Thanks Noli.

[bogg1e] 02/9/2013 13:50

Indeed, Noli cheers for the hard work.

[spike_1] 02/9/2013 12:58

noli, my continuing thanks also - Mike

[engelo] 02/9/2013 12:51

noli: many thanks for your links. Must have taken ages and lots of blind alleys to find them. Looking forward to reading through in detail.

The whole picture is evolving month by month: if IOF were a pure oil play it would be pretty exciting :-))

[noli] 02/9/2013 12:24

Also this re Nisku: Maybe weil are on to something new.

Possible Sweet Spots
Potential sweet spots in northeastern Montana most likely will be associated with solution of salt within the Prairie Formation. The Prairie Formation is about 1100 to 1200 ft. below the Bakken Oil System (Figure 26). Solution of Prairie Formation salt is well documented in the literature and numerous fields (e.g., Tule Creek, Volt, and Hummingbird, Canada) were formed by multistage salt solution. The solution edge has migrated from west to east more than 60 miles (Figure 27). Unfortunately, most of the solution occurred during Devonian time. Note there are several large solution voids within the preserved limits of the Prairie, most notably the Humming Bird Trough in Saskatchewan and northeastern Roosevelt County, Montana. Numerous other voids, that are a section or two in size, are too small to be depicted on the map.