Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 23/5/2013 14:32

Yeah, about a 10% swing here atm ... wait for the real break, my guess is that that gap will be filled, with 169 being the key to future moves.

[titus10] 23/5/2013 14:21

Buying the dips in a rising trend is obviously a good practice and it seems that many of us are looking to do that at the present time.

In post 25808 on the old thread I expressed the view that whilst there were signs of momentum loss the bull trend in IOF looked solid to me.

As a chart has been shown above which, being arithmetically-scaled, gives a distorted view of trend development over the time period covered (drawing straight lines to fit points on such graphs is the kind of tea-leaves divining that gives TA a bad name), the following points may be worth making, since it seems we are serious investors here with much at stake.

1. Since the present major uptrend began in early October 2011 price has advanced at a mean rate (sum of least squares regression analysis) of 333%p.a.to date.

2. Since end-December 2012 (i.e. the point measured from on the chart in post 212 above) the similarly-evaluated uptrend measures 943% p.a., so overall it has been accelerating. Some respected technical analysts see acceleration as a trend ending signal of unknown determination (a clumsy way of saying it's ending but we can't say when!).

3. Without going into analysis explanatory details, I now find that in the short term (say the last couple of months) trend strength is indeed weakening, as confirmed by several indicators, which diverge from price since the 11 April top.

4. Fwiw, my shares investment analysis system looks likely to give (me) an intermediate sell signal imminently - i.e. a profit-taking advice, rather than an exit or short signal.

5. Whilst in the last three days price has moved just below the mean uptrend line since the start of this year (i.e. the price running through the centre of all prices in that time - effectively the true trend), it is still well within the uptrend channel created by 2.5 standard deviations 'confidence lines' around that trend. So that uptrend is not threatened at this time.

6. Looking similarly at the main bull trend since Oct 11, price remains well above the mean trend line and well into what some analyses see as 'overbought' territory.

My thoughts, based on the above realities:

- I see less pressure right now to grab price dips for position building as, on balance, there may be better opportunities ahead for that.

- We may be entering a period of price consolidation, such as occurred between March and June 12 and Oct - Dec 12.

- None of this looks like threatening the major uptrend. I shall not be selling myself, and having come late will continue to look for opportunities to add. I'm not much concerned whether the gap up on 7th May carries a 'breakaway' label or whatever: if it got filled I'd be helping to fill it!

Finally, sorry my posts tend to be so long (very unfashionable). You could always get rid of a pestilential chartist with a barrage of thumbs down....

[superg1] 23/5/2013 13:59

I assume ATUK is stagnant due to this line in the trading update in Dec

'results for the year ending 31 December 2012 will be materially below market expectations and slightly below those reported for the year ended 31 December 2011. The Board stresses that this is not lost revenue, rather revenue that has been marginally delayed and therefore falling into the subsequent year.'

So many on there will be waiting for the year end results before the next move.

They say the payment would have been in Q1 this year so many waiting to see I suspect. An interesting little quiet share that could see good gains or be taken out for it's software assets.


FUM I think will see some significant gains as it moves into 2014, with surely £1 plus towards the year end. I think the CE mark won't be that far off and have viewed various rns content on the subject which seems to support that view.
The CE mark given should see a jump in the share price.

It is a given imo, it's just timings are unknown.

The other factor is CRF which gets significant comments in a note. Sept seems to be the date for yes/no re that.

A no isn't an issue as PI's are in for csd near term. A yes would be a positive as it's thought to be a big revenue earner. Being a cosmetic product the route to market should be swift.

[n3tleylucas] 23/5/2013 12:37

Yeah that's the trend, so some traders will target an exit/entry at a certain % either side.Swing.



Hedge.

[nevmyers] 23/5/2013 12:04

SG
I'm still looking at ATUK they don't seem to be moving much in either direction, not sure about long term possibility's. Did you ever invest in these or are you still watching them also, I'm back in FUM now I feel they will move sooner rather than later, things look more positive under the new deal.

Nev

[superg1] 23/5/2013 11:26

Sav

Square1 did cover similar points a while back.

Whichever way it is, sells or shorts, it provides a churn and the still hovers above the lower section of the trend line, so a bit of consolidation ready for the next move up is good.

[n3tleylucas] 23/5/2013 11:01

That will confuse a few SavvasN lol ... I think most on here simply see shorting as some kind of immoral tactic to lower the sp, they never even contemplate the hedging strategy.

[savvasn] 23/5/2013 10:54

Could mentioned Ennismore short be a delta hedge on the convertible rather than a naked short per se?

[superg1] 23/5/2013 10:24

Retiree

It's the sort of thing I don't mention, but I had contact from them and had comms.

Prior to that seeking Alpha made contact. They both are digging away and will be keeping an eye on IOF.

They are doing some digging re the oil side of things too.

[johncsimpson] 23/5/2013 10:15

I have an excellent report on Bison Energy, a Denver based company providing land title services in North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. They are currently being touted as an IPO is immenent. The report is entitled Born in the USA. Bison is heralded as a play on US fracking and is ramping up to supply water and sand. Yes, I said water!

I'll endeavour to make it available if anyone is interested.

[n3tleylucas] 23/5/2013 09:41

"going on Summer hols soon and don't want to keep checking"

Why wouldn't you want to check? Does a holiday prevent a simple look at your shares every day? Good morning.

[ramu kumar] 23/5/2013 09:41

Thanks guys, have taken your comments on board and will reassess in a few weeks. This is a fantastic BB, better info & advice then my broker!

[diggulden] 23/5/2013 09:38

That's just made me think, when I went on hols last year the share price was about 42p, what a difference a year makes eh. Happy to be holding!

[superg1] 23/5/2013 09:35

If you set stop losses and supplies are short, mm's can easily drag the price back to snap up your holding.

It has happened a few times on Iofina over the last 18 months.

However looking at your timings, I expect us to have moved on and up from here.
Best to reassess in few weeks.

[diggulden] 23/5/2013 09:33

Ramu, your risk appetite is a personal decision, I guess the question is at what level can you sleep soundly at night? I made the mistake last summer of closing my SB position before I went on hols to Florida, only to find I couldn't re-open the position again as IG stopped taking longs!!

I personally won't run a SB on any AIM company with less than a 50% stop loss, if I am in for the long run. If it's just a short term trade (2-3 months) I usually use 20%.

[ramu kumar] 23/5/2013 09:29

1 - 9 July

[superg1] 23/5/2013 09:23

When are your hols Ram ??

[orslega] 23/5/2013 09:22

imo if you are in here for the long term here any stop losses are vulnerable - particularly on AIM and a stock like IOF - my advice would be not to bother with a stop loss......you want to return from holiday and see your shares still there! Anything could happen during a two week Summers hols, particularly if there is a big demand for shares. Have seen MMs pinging PIs stop losses many times.

Obviously each investor has their own risk profile so just my take. But am sure you can get a guaranteed stop loss through your broker if that is your plan.

[ramu kumar] 23/5/2013 09:08

Can anyone advise on levels for guaranteed stop loss for IOF - going on Summer hols soon and don't want to keep checking, thanks.

[the librarian] 23/5/2013 08:46

Can't be many shares around where everyone is hoping for a price drop :), perfect timing peter, it seems to be a rare event in this game!

[peterz] 23/5/2013 08:45

Scrutable - thanks for info.

Ramu - I guess I was lucky to have got in quick then.

[scrutable] 23/5/2013 08:33

looks like a fairly small player chancing his luck this morning to short x5 times at 5000 in quick succession, first thing, after seeing the FTSE opening down 100 after a similar fall on Wall Street.

he/she succeeded in driving the price down for a few minutes only to see the buyers piling in for a cheap top up, in thanks.