Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[worraps] 01/8/2013 16:30

Spot on, freshvoice. Very refreshing.

[freshvoice] 01/8/2013 16:02

The worry I have with all these projections of run rate by year end is that the co has not hit any of their targets for output yet.
All we have are excuses, oil in water, wells shut down, no electricity,
Weather and supply problems for grp units. Surely these were ordered some time ago?

I will feel happy when a unit is reported as

We produced over 20mt of iodine from IOx last month,

Until then it is all hope.(and extrapolation from research)

[diggulden] 01/8/2013 15:45

If you take IO2, producing 800KG a day as per RNS in H2, at 90% run time, gives 129MT for the second half of the year. That is assuming it is running at an average of 800kg's a day from 1st July to 31st Dec with 10% downtime.

IO3 online at end of Sept, so 3 month production at maybe 600-800KGs a day depending on brine, with 10% downtime gives 49MT on the conservative measure.

So IO2 = 129MT for 2H
IO3 = 49MT for Q4
IO4 = Maybe 30MT for Q4 if no delays.

IO1 will probably do 25MT in H2, then another 50MT from recycling with higher Opex over the year.

Plus 50MT so far this year.

That gives 2013 production at 358MT but with a likely exit rate of 1000MT (on a conservative view).

[bogg1e] 01/8/2013 15:45

Depends on the roll out i guess, if we can get IO#3-6 that may add enough output to take us to 500 tons.

Interestingly, on the basis of IO#1 alone, the share price got to about 200p, overvalued yes, but gives an idea as to how far the share price can be pushed. I fully expect every solid piece of progress to be met with price ranges that would equate to a p/e of 25 through to 50, based on the new revenue figures each update will enable us to extrapolate. By Q4 we will hopefully have the water asset and 4 plants in operation, so although i find it hard, as we all do, to calculate production and revenue for 2013 i don't think it matters much as frustrating as it is. And that hasnt stopped me from still trying to calculate for 2013, I still persist!

[che7win] 01/8/2013 15:33

Cheers boggle, I expect 100mt from io1 and recycling.Io2 should do 120mt second half so say 250mt for all production this year?

[jpsmithson] 01/8/2013 15:32

Been looking at this for sometime as it seems to have been mentioned or ramped on just about every other board over the last 6 months. Often being quoted as AIMs only success story.
When it was at £2.50 it didnt seem to have anywhere to go as everyone was either in it or knew about it. To be frank some of the assumptions and speculation of output and profit seemed completely detached from reality, almost hysterical.
There will be delays and problems on every single one of these plants, they will always need to be shut down for a multitude of reasons that spread sheet multiplications cannot predict.
This is a great looking business and now that a dose of reality is setting in a present entry price seems reasonable. Reading todays RNS I am estimating a total production figure of somewhere between 350-500mt for 2013.

[jarvis4] 01/8/2013 15:31

Orslega

Yes, I have been following the board for a while. Thanks to all whose varied views and ideas are making this thread worthwhile.

Like you I am up to my ears in CGT liabilities in Blnx (grin) but if it succumbs to a low ball then I may well join this merry band....hopefully not for a good while though. No offence intended.

[chrysalis99] 01/8/2013 15:25

We may have the capacity for 1500 mt by year end, but it looks as though there may need to be some allowance for the buildup of brine supply volumes given comments today. So lets not set ourselves unrealistic expectations with subsequent disappointment. That's all getting a bit dull now and is doing nobody any good.

[rojer108] 01/8/2013 15:22

It shouldn't of reached 220p. It was a artificial momentum with no bases. Hope to see it at a realistic valuation of 100p

[bogg1e] 01/8/2013 15:21

Che as a point of interest the production rate and exit rate are actually the same thing for IOF. An exit rate is the production by a given deadline, eg april 5th for tax or the company's chosen yearly accounts period, eg. May 17th. In IOFs case the production year and accounting year are identical; jan 1st to december 31st.

[iof multibagger] 01/8/2013 15:20

strong finish in to the close 1.40p last chance

[che7win] 01/8/2013 15:16

I think you mean an exit rate of 1500MT at year end which is still on track but an uphill task from here.

[bobsworth] 01/8/2013 15:09

Cheers Bogg1e and noli.

So no immediate news on the water front then.

Here's hoping for some completed news soon, like appointment of new CEO, patents granted, IO#2 upgrade completed and all before testing and commissioning completed on IO#3 end of Sept.

Love that word completed!

[orslega] 01/8/2013 14:58

Am guessing that as no update on CEO this morning, the likelihood is that they must be close to appointment. Hopefully that will steady things.

[bogg1e] 01/8/2013 14:57

orselga, i got in and out of blnx a few times. The big offput is the reputation blnx has amongst its employees. A lot of negatives from their programmers who claim that the management is somewhat fickle; constantly changing their projects before completing them and therefore very wasteful of time and money. Between the two my money would be on IOF. FWIW.

[iof multibagger] 01/8/2013 14:56

Was very pleased to get a fat lump at 1.38p today thought they would never
come down to that again. Very nice chaps good luck

[orslega] 01/8/2013 14:53

Jarvis - welcome!

Yes as you know I have taken a good chunk here and have picked up quite a few on the dips - what does that remind you of!lol Yes precisely my thoughts, disconnect overdone imo although the share price did get ahead of itself - todays RNS essentially was a good update, some timing issues but still looking good in medium term. Long term, like blinkx (10 bagger)there is some serious money to be made.

Toss up between IOF and Blinkx for ISA Monday. Well IOF it has to be as I have CGT with blinkx.

Keep an eye on Iofina - just starting to unfold - all about delivery now, everything else in place - you have obviously been following and no doubt seen some excellent posters contributing to this board. Thanks to those guys and girls - you know who you are.

[iof multibagger] 01/8/2013 14:52

IF YOU DONT GET IN JOEY YOU WILL BE FARTING IN 2 WEEKS, WHEN ITS £2 THEN. ;)

[bogg1e] 01/8/2013 14:52

IOF multibagger, the BOD originally claimed that 2013 output would equal 1500 tons. That aint gonna happen. Probably closer to 500 tons. But by q3 2013 ie NOW, we were supposed to have about 800 tons output, not 62!!! Im not even bearish, I'm a long term and highly optimistic holder and find myself defending the negatives!

[iof multibagger] 01/8/2013 14:51

TARGET IS CLEAR £4 BY XMAS!

[iof multibagger] 01/8/2013 14:50

JOEY SHUT UP! FILTERED BACK TO IOF £4 EASY BY CHRISTMAS.
IF YOU HAVENT GOT ANYTHING GOOD TO SAY OR CONTRIBUTE
THEN GO AWAY AND STOP DERAMPING.

[joeywald] 01/8/2013 14:48

For god's sake where do these people crawl out from?
iof multibagger and ROJER108 filtered.