Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[madchick] 30/7/2013 17:23

Good to hear the updates. I don't blame people for being cautious about claims because if we look only at what is certain (ie, RNSd and completed), then even IO.2 isn't yet up fully as far as we officially know and we were expecting it in January, so if we factor in the same time lag for IO.3 and IO.4, there is a logical, cautious conclusion that these could also be delayed equally. As was said at the AGM, they could spend forever always looking for a better ppm as the data are always changing, so at some point they just have to go for it. I'm not saying that I am of such a pessimistic view regarding the remaining IOs, but it's a perfectly reasonable stance.

Anyway, happy to hear that they are still planning six in OPERATION for this year and that everything is going on track. Just a bit of a shame about the SP, but in a year's time, we will be worrying on a completely different scale, IMO.

No point in being in shares if you don't enjoy a little drama along the way! However, even I would like to see the current share price direction start to turn back round to forwards. As others have said, just a matter of patience.

[plasybryn] 30/7/2013 17:16

I can confirm that I have also now had a response & Sam has confirmed Roll-out continues as anticipated. So fair dues, the share price must be cheap!

[che7win] 30/7/2013 17:10

Hitsha,
I think the market will reprice here when the market gains confidence.

In one sense, IOF must deliver on the timelines they have given for 5 plants commissioned by year end, I don't care if IO#6 is this year or next, it will be close to year end and it is immaterial which year but meeting or surpassing deadlines is always taken well by the market.

5 plants:
#1 and recycling: 100Mt
#2: 350 Mt
#3: 300 Mt
#4: 300 Mt
#5: 300 Mt

Run rate: 1350 Mt x 0.01345 = ~18p EPS at year end. If they do six plants next year (CF said expect 6 plants to be in by the end of this year and the target is a further 8 for next year) then:

2014:
6 plants at say only 200MT (to be ultra conservative) and Include #6 commissioned Jan next year and a mini plant = 8 plants

Run rate 2014: 1350 Mt + (8 x 200) = 2950Mt x 0.01345 = ~40p EPS at year end 2014 (with 25% upside possible if each plant commissioned in 2014 is 300 Mt).

With a doubling EPS, surely a P/E of 25 = £10 share target in 18 months on those figures should be achieveable. At that stage, we won't care if the odd plant reduces in volume from time to time.

As I say, below £2 is a steal IMHO.

[hitsha3] 30/7/2013 16:33

I always get replies. He is a good man. I think we may be on the way up from now.

[che7win] 30/7/2013 16:32

Yes,
I remain of the opinion that below £2 is a steal, will be happy to continue to hold in the long term, certainly would be anxious if I was out at this price as it will move swiftly on any good news.

One other bit:
"IO3 and IO4 are both still on track and the company still plans on having 6 plants in
operation by year end. "

[bogg1e] 30/7/2013 16:31

hitsha cheers

[bobbyshilling] 30/7/2013 16:28

Well there you go then, just as I reckoned, no problems. Very good of Sam Huebner to reply to you, and thanks for posting it hitsha3.

[hitsha3] 30/7/2013 16:28

Things will be ok, just bit of waiting game.

[croc8] 30/7/2013 16:26

As i said earlier, patience is required.

[beercapafn] 30/7/2013 16:24

thats almost an RNS.. love the naivety. ..

[che7win] 30/7/2013 16:14

I've also received a reply, reassuring that things remain on track and glad to have a reply :-)

One part: "IO2 continues to experience improved brine water and extraction efficiencies"

[hitsha3] 30/7/2013 16:06

We will release material information through the appropriate means in due course. We are still on track to have 6 plants in operation by year end.



Regards,

Sam Huebner

[che7win] 30/7/2013 14:53

Danster,
SQM is in some trouble with lithium also in Chile, the Chilean government is reviewing their concessions.

[diggulden] 30/7/2013 14:51

Busy on L2 at the moment.

[danster4] 30/7/2013 14:46

SQM have taken a plunge!

[urbanyeti] 30/7/2013 14:45

Fact - they are a minimum 41 days into IO3 build.Fact - it is a 60 day buildFact - IO4 build is only 30 days behindFact - the high ppm means 500t plus when fully operational.

[n3tleylucas] 30/7/2013 14:43

"let us try and stick to facts here"

Okay, the roll-out has been hit by delays & production outages. FACT.

That is an INDICATION of future events here.

[wilfy75] 30/7/2013 14:43

Many thanks Gents. Just bought yet more - happy to average down and if the shorters happen to be right and we're heading towards 140 I shall buy yet more at that stage and be delighted to do so!

It seems to me that the problem with trying to short this company is that it's really very solid with a proven track record and (as I now know it to be) a profitable business model. On top of that successful Iodine producers are typically bought out and any bid surely must be comfortably above the 300+ level as bidding speculatively below the 52 week high is madness and there is so much upside here.

I do hope I'm not wrong (obviously) but I'll be as long as I can possibly psyche myself into being on this!

Oh yes, also think some of the falls in AIM stocks are with an eye on 5 August when I suspect that there will be an almighty bounce as people pile back in. I'm also long (though not nearly AS long!) NCT and OXS both of which are doing far worse than they should. BILN's not coming down like I'd like it to though ...

[n3tleylucas] 30/7/2013 14:41

"Investec forecast 4.82p EPS this year and 24.12p next year."

That 24p is the biggest bloody laugh of the year! It will be slashed!

[croc8] 30/7/2013 14:39

Ramu, all the latest information from the BOD is that IO3 and IO4 will be up and running sept/oct. There is nothing to contradict this, and there are no delays. IOF are making money and installing the new units. Any suggestions otherwise are deramps or miscommunication on this BB or others. We have all seem problems with other AIM shares, and other BBs, but let us try and stick to facts here. There are no delays to the current plan as outlined by the BOD.

[che7win] 30/7/2013 14:34

Wilfy,
Investec forecast 4.82p EPS this year and 24.12p next year.

That is a foreword PER of 6.86p and PEG of 0.02

So 500% growth expected with P/E 6, the market is nervous, but even half this growth and we are cheap and that's the official broker note, others expect more.

Share target 230p as seen here:

hxxp://sharedealing.nandp.co.uk/broker-views/IOF/Iofina-news

[orslega] 30/7/2013 14:32

croc8 - precisely - stick with what has been announced - 6 weeks ago - 19/6/13 AGM statement.

"In Oklahoma site construction on IOsorb(TM) IO#3 has commenced and will be completed in Q3 2013, with IOsorb(TM) IO#4 scheduled for completion circa 30 days after IOsorb(TM) IO#3. Lessons learnt from IOsorb(TM) plants IO#1 and IO#2 have been incorporated into the design, providing the Group with a standardised plant process and construction. Operators for the new plants have been largely recruited and are currently being trained on the existing facilities.

Bids for IOsorb(TM) plants IO#5 and IO#6 fabrication are being reviewed, with completion scheduled for Q4 2013.

In addition to working up the design for the Group's mobile plants, a review is being undertaken on the potential of utilising larger units, capable of handling up to 50,000 barrels bbls per day of brine at temperatures in excess of 100 degrees Fahrenheit. For the mobile units, the Group has identified new sites which have hyper iodine content but low brine volumes"

[ramu kumar] 30/7/2013 14:30

Croc8, just being conservative. If you're seen all the previous posts, assumptions, forecasts etc., we are running behind time for various reasons - some very justifiable like relocations etc. However, we are still behind and it is my opinion that only 3 plants will be FULLY commissioned. Like to be proved wrong.