Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 29/6/2013 09:59

What shorting scenario? This hasn't fallen over 100p in 14 trading days because of short selling. Stop making excuses for an overvalued stock plummeting.

[skasher094] 29/6/2013 09:53

Fire aside did ASOS go through this same shorting scenario
Early days
Would be interesting to see some corrolations

[superg1] 29/6/2013 08:45

I don't see any point in personal attacks on scrut.

re posting I have no desire to spend every minute of the day posting, and had been trying to escape that.


I have always said the turning point for IOF will be mid this year. They are now in the process of the rapid roll out, and in OK, which was my hope and in the prime area.

Once I heard what was said at the AGM, I re-appeared here with the view that IOF will be taken over by a big player. I have said for some time I expect water to go post rights achieved, either entirely, or on a JV as IOF as a sleeping partner.

I was hoping they would be able to hang onto the iodine side, but if plants are as good as they seem, then IOF iodine will be gone too, but not cheaply as they are contract rich, and can demonstrate lucrative growth.

After the AGM I clearly said I intend to reduce the research and post less as I believe IOF will be gone to a decent bid within the next 18 months.

I have long posted about how bad it is for the main suppliers in Chile. I did see a post about another company (copper mining I think) that are turning their back on Chile. The iodine market is a strong sector, but the supply sector is hitting very tough times. It makes IOF very attractive to some very big companies that use iodine, like Dow and others.
Why would they buy in at $60 a Kg when they could produce their own for $10-$15 and rip customers away from other chemical div's.

Take Io chemical div, we know at that unit they say they can go to 800mt, but have land to expand.

That could be a 25% plus increase in another big players market sector, at margins they could only dream of.


A few warned re over-posting, and I tried to encourage a reduction in posts as we were going around in circles, so it's best to lead by example. Now some worry we don't post enough ???

All that happened here is a badly written rns, following the resignation of the CEO.
All that happened when the US gov scared the market, and China did it's best to do the same, jitters kicked in and off we went down.

The bounce came and the enthusiasm returned. However when you get those dives and bounces, it's a traders dream.

IMO PI's buy and take the price up, and they sell on having bought low, knocking the price back, and the cycle goes on.

The only way to defeat that is to sit tight until they can't achieve what they want. Funds are buying, but imo they won't chase the price, they will happily sit and pick off what is available. trying to buy in numbers would just cause the price to take off and the cycle would continue.

Take TW's sudden charge of heart, while I know IOF is a fab company, I take the reasons for his view with a pinch of salt.

So no you won't find me on here pumping out the same info that I have done. It's there, the business plan is fantastic and very lucrative, but the whole market has people sitting on their hands.

At some point this will all settle and IOF will start a solid move again. I always say 'assuming delivery' and always have. So now we are in a period where we are waiting for-:
io2 to get new brines and a production upgrade, with io3 and 4 being built near term.

I believe those 3 plants in terms of revenue potential and profits carry a value well above this share price, but the overall market seems to be in control at the moment.

I rarely say buy or sell on here, I just share research and say DYOR. The business prospects look fantastic, I can't say anymore than that, but delivery is needed and looks set to arrive in H2.

You can find me on on other shares in big spats, and look which way they all went.
Plenty called me a fool, for challenging posts about gold would race through $2000. I think there one well known tip team said gold would push through $3000 and they had one of those long boring clips about it.

Now some talk of a retrace to gold to $900.

In other words all the experts have no clue what will happen, but those experts make plenty of money from subscriptions, buying shares, then tipping them etc etc. Then sell and put out their sell tip etc etc.

The point being is to DYOR, I'm very happy with the IOF business. It is not in the same position as many hype shares of the past.
It actually has a very good business, and can suddenly multiply revenues and profits, being a serious take out target.

Hey ho perhaps TW has realised that, and he is being genuine.

Don't forget this little old BB was saying watch any investments in Chile in any sector, while the experts in the market, were piling Billions into it.

I could have made loads shorting SQM, as we predicted they would see a crash in the price due to Chile issues.

For the last few weeks, analysts have been saying Buy SQM... over-sold, but then it drops some more, and they say the same again.

At some point they will be right, and that's the bit they will point to in the future, the tip to buy just before it rises, but they will forget to mention the 5 previous tips to buy, on the fall.

So my point re IOF currently is that no doubt there are short term traders around gagging for PI's to buy, and chase the price into the 160's where they will exit, watch it drop, then start again. PI's are renowned for buying on the highs on surge days on any shares.

So the closer the range stays the more difficult it is for them to profit imo.

Check out other big change shares, you get the bounce up and down wedge chart until it it narrows and settles and they buzz off.

So Dyor I for one don't want to feed the pots of those guys. What they do, doesn't change a thing re IOF.

IOF have the all the cash they need to do a roll out, and with potential earnings way beyond anything that went before.

So imo for shareholders ignore the emotion games and just focus on the business. Each can decide, whether they buy more, hold, or sell, it's always been that way.

[the librarian] 29/6/2013 07:21

I will not get involved in the arguing that is going on, hence staying away from the board.

One thing I will say regarding the situation is that the only people badly affected by the drop were the people who were using s/b's and T's, if you have 'real' shares, or it's invested in your SIPP, then in twelve months time you will be very happy with your investment. At the moment it's a bear market and they are prowling around looking for food and IOF has supplied that.

Scrutable's Black swan came into the picture, if anyone could have predicted it all, i.e. Lance, delays, poor RNS, attack on the s/b's etc; in short order then they are indeed a clever person. This is a good growth company, they are employing more people to keep up with the work that they need to do, they have money to move more quickly with the roll out, they are not buying in Iodine.

Read the old RNS's, they have set out the path for the future, base your investment decision on that.

[skylite] 28/6/2013 23:37

It's still entirely possible Scrut has been investing longer than he's been alive :-)

[kcowe] 28/6/2013 23:36

I believe in the company and its abilities to deliver on all its potential... does not mean that im not mindful of the markets... i posted a few months back my experience in 2008 dragon oil went from 600 to 100 in 8 months nowt wrong with the company .. the market imploded .. i not want to be holding stock in these markets medium term with that kind of volatility in mind happening again... so i will trade... if i miss out so be it ... plenty of other ops around .. we all have different strategies ... good night good weekend to you all.

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 23:35

Wayne lumped in his entire SIPP the day before the big fall - impeccable timing :)

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 23:33

Or long term investors not panicked by volatility each to their own

[skylite] 28/6/2013 23:32

And a footnote to my last post. Yes he seems to have got burnt but this is a man's game (so to speak)and whilst we had a board full of Oh Woe Me posts, not one from him; just a brief insight into his determination to build his holding back up on the back of lessons learned. At 80 odd, with all his investing experience and still admitting to learning lessons, well, classy and humble.

[uppompeii] 28/6/2013 23:32

Well people who only check the share price only once a month or so are either fools or have rural internet connections.

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 23:29

Sky. Wayne is 74 so I'm not sure that is true

[naphar] 28/6/2013 23:29

Wayneduncan, I posted in response to that post by scrutable questioning his analysis.

People are quiet, I can see that too. On my part, I work a full time job, and avoid posting during the day as much as I can, unless I have a day off when I might respond a bit more, or pose my own questions etc.

For anyone who has been to the PI presentations and or AGM, ignoring the share price, the potential of this company does not seem to have changed, in terms of raw iodine production potential (some even believe it has increased). There have been some delays. The AGM RNS could have been worded better based on what I heard at the AGM.

In terms of share price, we are roughly where we were at the end of feb I think. Maybe that reflects the delays.

Short term, we could go higher, we could go lower. No one knows for sure. Long term, where the share price will be depends on delivery of that potential output and the sales prices and margins associated with that. I am probably more conservative than many others on what price we might achieve for raw prill iodine, and the margins involved. But we all have to do our own research and conduct our analysis.

If we produce and sell in some form 1000mt of iodine (edit: in 2014) at $50 per kg sales price with $25 per kg average cost, with $/£ of 1.5, that's £16.7m gross profit. If I assume that the margin from iofina chemical covers the other company costs, that £16.7m will fall to bottom line profit. That would be 12.85p per share profit, which at PE of 15 would make the shares worth £1.93 on a forward looking basis. I think that's conservative, others will surely disagree one way or another. I invested for the potential as I see it, but no-one said it will go up in a straight line.

Just my thoughts. And the above numbers are just one set of lots of possibilities, I am not forecasting that result, just using it as an example.

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 23:25

Kcowe the point is do you believe in the companies ability to deliver or notIf they do the share price will move higher quickly once this is proven People could learn a lot from the Cheltenham lot who bought the story bought the shares and only check every month or so what the price isIf Iof deliver they will be rich if not then they won't If you beleive the story wait and see it won't be long either way

[kcowe] 28/6/2013 23:21

skylite what is that supposed to mean.... who can take the pain longest is the winner lol... the DOW dived in the last couple of minutes on heavy volume... monday we could be under pressure .. this isnt a buy n hold market its a traders market ... iof have had a great run up n the story is great ... but the market turns sour n it will , do you think iof are immune lol ... last week proved they not,any weakness will ensure any nervy holders not having sold on the first dump will on the next dump just to protect short term profits .. its the way of people.n what we do. .... just my musings.

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 23:20

Leverage Wayne

[skylite] 28/6/2013 23:16

I rest my case.

[diggulden] 28/6/2013 23:14

kcowe, maybe, maybe not.. who knows.... all idle speculation here at the moment.

It's back to basics for me, if you like the company and think they will achieve the rollout plan, then buy or hold, if you don't think they will achieve, sell, short or don't buy.

Simples.

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 23:12

I doubt it he's 89

[skylite] 28/6/2013 23:11

He'll be here longer than you mate.