Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[scrutable] 28/6/2013 01:05

there is a disconnect between the value PI's who follow IOF closely accord to the company (approx £300m)and the values held by 'outsiders'(aprox £200m)

This is what supports the confidence of shorters PLUS possibly the advantage seen by institutions who want to buy in but only at a deeply discounted figure and which have driven the share price down to 150p.

The remedy is for the company to put out a timely, first half year Trading Statement and confirm for the first time in a Press Release (and via Investec Analyst reports) the facts they placed in the public domain at the AGM, but are nevertheless not widely known.

These are crucially the news that:
1) an additional brine stream has been added to IO#2 (in June?) and thereby raised production from 0.7mT to 1.0mT p/month which now acts as a benchmark for minimum expectations of subsequent plants in the roll out.

2)that the change in location of IO#3 from alongside IO#2 in Texas to Oklahoma,
which led to a three month set back to the roll out schedule, has brought the installation to a source of brine streams of much higher iodine content prevalent locally in that State, and to an expected production very much higher, thus making up fully for the lost tonnage.

3) that against the known iodine spot price realised for raw iodine of $58-$63/Kg, the exceptionally low opex from the patented IOF iodine reclamation process of $8-12/Kg produces noteworthy profit margins to which can be added a further $10-15/kg for the value added by processing and marketing up to 800mT p/month of iodine derivatives (which is the current capacity limit of IOF-C)

4) that the company roll out schedule until end 2014 has been increased by a further 4 plants up to a total of 14 (including the two pilot plants now fully operational) to double capacity originally planned for 2014

This information will add dramatically to analysts estimates of the value of a constantly rising production rate over the next 18 months, and lift the capitalisation of the company, detering possible low ball offers by opportunist asset strippers, to which the company is unnecessarily vulnerable.

I have been in touch with Lance and Jeff by phone and e-mail on this subject, and got the impression that they sympathise with it, and that it may have been partly responsible, with others' representation's for the RNS re the fracking Water Conference, which immediately added support to the share price on Tuesday.

[n3tleylucas] 28/6/2013 00:45

"Shorting is also anti-capitalistic and damaging to the overall growth of the economy."

Winner of today's Most Ridiculous Comment of the Day ... and we're only 45 minutes in!!! LOL

I'm so confident that won't be topped today! LOL ...

[festario] 28/6/2013 00:30

Shorting is as ridiculous and as dangerous as spreadbetting long on shares.

Shorting is also anti-capitalistic and damaging to the overall growth of the economy.

It is at the mercy of brokers and SB companies who set the rates, in the same way bookies set their odds. The majority will lose, its a mathematical certainty.
Both rely on the loaning of shares or money.

The only difference being that Spreadbetting long is betting on a positive result, whereas shorting is purely negative, and those who practise it thrive on the poor performance of a share, and the losses made by others. Purely cynical.

[uriney] 27/6/2013 21:53

Supreme mo,

Got your PM, thank you, couldn't respond as I am not a paying subscriber, licking my wounds from Monday however my shopping trolley has had extensive repairs carried out and is ready to go, waiting for the dust to settle and then bargain hunting shall begin, this weeks games will be a distant memory in 6 months from now as long as IOF deliver the roll out as planned.

Uriney

[obbig60] 27/6/2013 21:52

It is hard to believe they didn't make use of Mondays carnage to make a fast buck

[diggulden] 27/6/2013 21:50

The Medici, I think you are wrong, but happy to be corrected, the last 'change' was on the 18th. That report should be up to date as of 3pm yesterday due to the new short disclosure rules.

[plasybryn] 27/6/2013 21:50

What does anyone think of the Annual Report & Accounts document? Interested to get any feedback particularly from Accountants.

[the medici] 27/6/2013 21:48

supreme mo: that's as of the 18th. They are likely no longer short now after monday's attack.

[supreme mo] 27/6/2013 21:39

Ennismore now 1.01% of company's share capital short

[eeza] 27/6/2013 21:28

@madchick
Lending out shares is perfectly legal, must banks and brokers do it & justify it because they make a small commission. Whilst it is legal it is totally immoral, IMO, to lend out shares ( and worse where consent has not been obtained ) and most especially on AIM which has young Co's where liquidity is a real issue and could seriously compromise the firm's future.
But those considerations are obviously minor, and secondary, to the making of profit by the banksters concerned.

[eeza] 27/6/2013 21:19

The point about the short interest is that it is historic, those shares have already been sold - it is already in the price - but at some point they have to close the short by purchasing the shares back, and that is not yet in the price.

[nick2008] 27/6/2013 20:38

Retiree - Thx for 4015

[bogg1e] 27/6/2013 20:33

testuser cheers.

[pigeon1] 27/6/2013 20:30

Don't tell me - they are trying to stay under the radar

Absolutely fed up of that line myself..

[pigeon1] 27/6/2013 20:29

I must say i'm not at all impressed with the web site

Completely outdated stuff on Atlantis and natural gas under Company owned production - nothing about Miss lime etc

No presentations

Broker notes haven't been updated

[madchick] 27/6/2013 20:22

I'm pretty sure that your shares can't be lent out without your permission. It's not PI shares that are lent out (I think it is some institutions who give permission) and it's an urban myth that you can stop the shorts by everyone putting on a really high sell price to stop your shares from being lent out. They can't be lent out. I'm pretty sure of it (and it makes logical sense to me - people can't borrow your car for a day without your permission, so why would it be allowed for shares?).

I've been trying for about an hour to find the post where someone gave the story of IOF refusing a bid of £2 in the early days (it was news to me at the time, although I had heard the rumour that it would happen), but to no avail. Lib - I challenge you!!! :-)

[testuser123] 27/6/2013 19:53

bogg1e, i don't think it comes from regulatory data (although there is apparantly a requirement for disclose of large short positions now). I think markit have a deal with euroclear. see hxxps://www.euroclear.com/en/web-apps/stock-loan-data.html

[n3tleylucas] 27/6/2013 19:43

Meet Chinese Singles!!! LOL ... now I don't go on those sites! Is anyone else seeing the ad te the right?

[n3tleylucas] 27/6/2013 19:41

btw, looks like SMD have stopped the free service, pity. Didn't cover IOF, but was a good tool for shorting info. Shame.

[testuser123] 27/6/2013 19:37

Actually that's a good point Dig, the next couple of weeks should give us an opportunity to check the validity of that chart. According to the chart there was no change in short interest on monday which doesn't seem very plausible. I'll keep an eye out and see if a drop appears which confirms how much lag there is.

[n3tleylucas] 27/6/2013 19:30

testuser123 27 Jun'13 - 19:14 - 4047 of 4049 0 0

bogg1e. N3tley is just reposting stuff from here

------------------------------------------------

LOL ... don't be silly testy, that free feature used to be on the free page of Data Explorers flippin' years ago ... until they stopped it and eF got it, we weren't all flippin' born the day we looked in here! LOL

[bogg1e] 27/6/2013 19:28

Cheers dig. Do shorters have to declare their positions? If so, immediately after borrowing them or after x days? Or are these figures extrapolated some other way? Tia

[diggulden] 27/6/2013 19:25

Boggle, just further on from Testusers post, we know the information on the shorts is not up to date. We do not have an exact, but suspect it is 10-14 days behind.

[bogg1e] 27/6/2013 19:23

Net, test cheers. handy! So 2.4 million shorts = approx 2% of the company. Hmmm. Not a nice thought.