Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[diggulden] 28/6/2013 19:16

Certain links are allowed by non subscribers. There is a 'white list' thread somewhere where users can submit URL's that they would like to link through. Wikipedia has obviously already been accepted.

[maca1212] 28/6/2013 19:15

Hmm,

ADVFN reversed policy on links?

Amazing......

[maca1212] 28/6/2013 19:14

madchick,

Ta, not sure if I'm the right person to thank, if you want to fry your brains a little more google "securities lending".

This (as always with Wikipedia) may not be 100% accurate but gives a reasonably good overview:



PI's generally do not see the benefit (unless they are either shorting or benefitting from a bear squeeze) but taking a wider view it's not all bad.

M

[bogg1e] 28/6/2013 19:01

madchick cheers.

[madchick] 28/6/2013 18:29

OH, forgot to say thanks to - was it maca? - for giving the details on lending shares and shorting - I remembered on reading it that I'd heard before that institutions even get paid a little for lending shares out, so it was nice that at least I had correctly remembered the broad facts on that. So, maybe I'm not yet completely doolally!

[madchick] 28/6/2013 18:25

boggle - my understanding is that we will get the six month figures in Sept as usual. I don't remember the statement that it would be earlier, but that's not saying much because I have the same problem as you. I distinctly remember someone saying ages ago that IOF in the early days rejected a two quid offer, but can I find the evidence? No! It's most frustrating! Maybe we are all going a bit doolally!

For some reason I have it in mind that a mini (hello Lib!) will go in towards the end of the year, but since they have already mentioned, in an RNS no less, that they have identified some hyper brines, maybe even the mini one could come out earlier than expected? Still, would be happy just to hear that IO.2 is at full tilt and some of the milestones with the plants actually being met. I think that would help the share price a lot.

I'm still really surprised at the sudden re-rate - we can say it was forced positions etc, but if the market really thought iof was worth closer to 2.50 than 1.50, we should have seen a bounce back. Hence my feeling that at the end of the day, the markets want to see some actual delivery. I managed to buy some on today's dip (and I'm a bit annoyed at my lack of discipline because I really shouldn't...). That RNS also completely destroyed my hypothesis that the directors couldn't buy due to current lack of transparency as to true potential. At least that's one question answered!

[malachey] 28/6/2013 18:24

I believe they are delayed trade buys from tuesday and wednesday. That's what lse is telling me anyway..

[superg1] 28/6/2013 18:22

Haven't the time to read through the post right now, and spent the day on the Royal Porthcawl course. As someone said it is the only valid reason to visit Porthcawl.

Had the odd Q re my view.

Same as always, subject to delivery on the plant roll out, it's way under the value it will show via revenues from plants.

The ability of the tech has been demonstrated, and we are in the early stages of a transition to become a major iodine producer, plus the extra assets.

That value will show through as we go through the next 6 months or so.

What the market, and share price does, is a different matter, and is no threat to the business.

I still believe IOF will be gone within 18 months. There is no way big companies could let them run and disrupt their businesses.

Others would see IOF as a great acquisition due to it's all round prospects.

[diggulden] 28/6/2013 18:13

Worraps,
Just in the interest of balance, I don't believe both of the late trades to be buys. The 300k maybe, but since the trade price is well outside of the finishing range, I suspect it was a worked buy or sell worked throughout the day, so no way of knowing which it was, as we only know the average price.
The 143k looks like a sell to me, just based on the closing price of the action that day, but again, there is no real way of knowing.

[retiree] 28/6/2013 17:52

Macca I have it that a new law is being put in place in ND so probably waiting for that to be clear then it will be done.

[rock star] 28/6/2013 17:47

Macca

I agree water has largely been over my head however hopefully it will become clearer over the next few weeks. It seems ND has been put to one side but Montana could be 200k itself. Presumably they have been liasing with Halliburton as well on the locations. Until we get more clarity I attribute zero value to it but nevertheless it remains a good potential revenue stream.

RS

[worraps] 28/6/2013 17:34

Late trades :-

300,000 BUY 25th June
143,688 BUY 26th June

[maca1212] 28/6/2013 17:17

Rock Star,

"The water project will also gain credibility once the permit is granted enabling the market to factor in earnings from this lucrative market."

I'm not necessarily so sure about that, it would appear that development of water marketing in neighbouring North Dakota has not followed the projected genteel and serene path that one might take away from IOF's announcements. I suspect they are actually a little late to the party and will need to have sharp elbows.

As this report outlines there is already significant 'under the counter' trade in fracking supply water in montana, and pretty anaemic enforcement apparently (although the report is clearly biased on that count).

hxxp://www.worc.org/userfiles/file/Oil%20Gas%20Coalbed%20Methane/Hydraulic%20Fracturing/Gone_for_Good.pdf

M

[n3tleylucas] 28/6/2013 17:06

Bogg1e,

Well they updated production numbers before the AGM, so I can't possibly see any new numbers until September. Have a good weekend.

[maca1212] 28/6/2013 17:04

Hmm,

If they are still running at sales rate of about 50 tons of product a month and the current guidance is correct (i.e. io1 and 2 producing cumulatively at circa 300Mt/annum) hopefully the worst case scenario is probably that they will have produced and used about 100Mt (i.e. 4 months at 25Mt a month) of their own input product in H1 2013's output - probably about a third of their input requirements?

I would think that some impact from that if it is replacing bought in product at circa $40 a kilo should be detectable. Last years average cost of product per kilo was just shy of $25, so given the softening in iodine prices and their own guidance of $10-15 for their in house production, I would have thought that an average cost per kilo input should be in the range of $14-$18.

Obviously the lower the better and all supposition at the moment, also I don't know whether the recent guidance figures include anticline or any other pod deployments?

M

[bogg1e] 28/6/2013 16:50

Cheers Net. Right ok. So there's no immediate reason to expect any update on earnings before september then. Who knows we may get some snippets bundled with other announcements, such as a new CEO, etc, but i seriously doubt it as they are holding such cards close to the chest as it were. Good weekend all.

[rock star] 28/6/2013 16:48

I think the phrase "mid-summer madness" springs to mind after the events of this week.

A year ago when I researched this company I estimated once the rollout of the IO plants commenced the price should appreciate in the region of 10-15p per month. Due to the rapid expansion of the Mississippi Lime in the last 12 months the potential for IOF has risen significantly and so I have now to re-adjust my expectations for the coming year as the company has just started the "acceleration phase".

From September when IO3 comes on line I am looking for the share price to start to ratchet up 30-40p per month(based on each new ML plant producing £10m profit pa) as new high ppm plants commence production every 6-8 weeks.

In the meantime we can expect news that Io2 is optimized in the coming few weeks once the Mid-States summer drilling campaign comes to an end. This short term pain should benefit IO2 recovery rates in the medium term as the new wells will almost certainly contain richer brines. The water project will also gain credibility once the permit is granted enabling the market to factor in earnings from this lucrative market.

So far just over a year in to what looks a great 3 year investment. I have no doubt patience will continue to be rewarded.

[n3tleylucas] 28/6/2013 16:32

Bogg1e,

Margins should become a little clearer in the interims mate, as bought in I will have been used up, but I guess it will take the 2nd half to really see what plants 1 & 2 have actually produced & sold via IC, and we'll see the real margins then. So maybe early 2014 in an update, or wait 'til finals in May.

[writz] 28/6/2013 16:17

retiree, thanks.

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 16:16

Has someone given Super G the day off today???

[worraps] 28/6/2013 16:14

Ha, Ha, skylite.....I'll have to remember that next time I'm feeling crushed by a big shareprice drop......"It's because we care"....nice one. If only it was that easy!

[uppompeii] 28/6/2013 16:12

freshvoice - that was the only angle not mentioned short of the company appointing Richard Trevillion as CEO.

[skylite] 28/6/2013 16:10

Worraps it's been a chastening week for shareholders, or most of them anyway. Naturally emotions are running a bit high.

As my old rugby captain used to say when he pulled teammates apart when arguing after an unexpected loss - it's because we care!

[retiree] 28/6/2013 16:09

gyrations today - the market absorbed the selling (just)