Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 22/6/2013 22:08

You must learn to walk before you can run.

[madchick] 22/6/2013 21:50

che - yes, good point, I guess they do have to operate as if there will be no bid, and everything (talk of divis, designing large plants etc) could be smoke and mirrors.

I still don't think the BoD would ever accept a bid for four quid. And I think they can easily show that they can get more than this and persuade the IIs. If need be, it would be very easy for them to say more publicly about their ppms, their seismic data, the helium, what the water is worth, their costs etc, the range of sites they have and how many signed up etc, and thus demonstrate what they are sitting on. I really do not think that a bid for 4-5 quid would ever be accepted (although I truly hope I never live to regret saying that!). I don't expect ten quid this year, but any bid would have to be a premium, I would think, on what we could realistically expect by the end of next year, given that ramp up can continue to happen even after that and next year's stuff will be pretty much already planned and maybe even ordered.

Also, it will all take time - due diligence will have to be performed, other bids may come in and then each bidder will have to try to second-guess the others. Whatever happens, it should be interesting. I think IOF will still be here in 2014, even if under offer. I expect a lot of back-and-forth.

In addition, although we have the PI holdings listed here, there is no guarantee that all those PIs will back any given bid, so in terms of a takeover, I don't think the PI holdings will hold much sway (even if we assume people are reporting correctly). That was just an extra thought thrown in!

beer - yes, I note superg's change of slant. Not sure if he knows something or is just uttering his opinion (all I am doing is uttering mine :-))

[gadolinium] 22/6/2013 20:52

As usual I am playing catch up with the posts here, but am not sure if macca's query regarding Iofina's achieved iodine prices/opex and the nature/quality of their product was answered. (post 3000):

'My question regarding the sub $10 IOF opex cost is what does that deliver? Cake? or prill that commands a much higher sales price? It would appear to me that the opex is going to be substantially different across plants, mini-plants and pods, given the variability of supply experienced in Q2 in what should be the current lowest cost and most stable of these options (i.e. multi-well, pipeline connected plants like IO#2) I would question the ability of anyone to quote a future blended opex cost outside of a fairly broad range.'

------------------------------------------------------------
According to the US geological survey, commercial crude iodine normally has a minimum purity of 99.5% to 99.8%, depending on the supplier. I presume it is this material in prilled form which commands the widely quoted ca. $60/kg price tag. Atacama claim their prilled product complies with ACS, USP and BP standards which implies a purity of not less than 99.8% and no more than 0.005% bromine or 0.01% of nonvolatile matter.

hxxp://www.siroccomining.com/s/ProductSales.asp

At the PI presentation Jeff Ploen stated the output from the iosorb plants was 85-90% pure iodine 'mud'. He stated this was sufficiently pure for most uses in house as a chemical feedstock. He also stated that for commercial sale this would normally need to be purer and in prilled form, but they were also examining the possible market for the crude 'mud' product. I presume this crude product would not command the premium $60 price and conversely if the material were to be purified and prilled to international standards in order to achieve $60/kg this would mean an increase in opex from the widely quoted ca. $10/kg (edit) which I presume refers to the opex for the crude Iosorb output.

It may also be worth bearing in mind when comparing opex between Iofina and other producers that these other producers are probably quoting their opex for pure prilled iodine compared to Iofina's opex for crude Iosorb product.

[hitsha3] 22/6/2013 19:32

Well i am not going any where i am staying here with IOF.

[worraps] 22/6/2013 19:13

All of my posts express my excitement about this company. I have always said this is my best investment that I have ever had, or probably ever will have. I have not said that anyone is lurking or being a predator with IOF, I merely mentioned something that took place with one or two other companys that I have been involved with, and I have no intention of mentioning which companys they were here, if you don't mind.

I do not want to see any takeover of IOF, not for some considerable time yet. There are far too many good things that I want to see develop, over the next five (hopefully) years or more. I think a team such as IOF have, Lance in particular, deserve to see the full fruition of all that they have worked so hard to achieve.

Of course, as has been discussed at length here today, and yesterday, other people out there may have other ideas! Superg himself has stated that he thinks things may happen far sooner than many of us would like or envisage.

Please don't misinterpret my mentioning my experiences of one or two takeovers in the past, which were in my view 'dirty tactics'. I am not suggesting that anything similar is happening here. At least I very much hope not!!

My view is similar to others today, it has been a bit of a 'perfect storm' of circumstances that has brought the shareprice down. And I am with Scrutable, I don't think it will be very long before these disappointing days are behind us. It's one of the aspects I like about IOF, and that's it's ability to recover. It has happened before, and it wasn't long before we were smiling again.

As has been said earlier,.....chill.

[che7win] 22/6/2013 18:49

Madchick,
IOF has to perform as a business with long term goals, a bid may never come. If the company stopped doing anything you suggest, they would destroy long term value.

£10 will not happen this year, not where we currently are. A takeover this year would never reach anywhere near that price IMHO, the company needs to continue to deliver and be open with their potential.

I don't think a takeover approach would go for any more than £4 right now, too many investors would take the fast buck.

Remember, at this stage the company needs to be seen to be delivering on its potential, more roll outs needed and a lot of hard graft ahead.

All to play for.

[n3tleylucas] 22/6/2013 18:37

What I mean SCRUTABLE, the confidence to buy is ... compromised. They think it will fall further, so they ... wait.

Isn't it beautiful?

[dcgray21] 22/6/2013 18:34

If so worraps then we should see an RNS to that effect once shareholding > 3% . Would confirm your suspicions one way or the other.

[beercapafn] 22/6/2013 18:28

Worraps. Starting to see a pattern..

[worraps] 22/6/2013 18:18

deleted due to misinterpretation.

[n3tleylucas] 22/6/2013 18:16

SCRUTABLE,

This game is all about confidence.

[beercapafn] 22/6/2013 18:11

Madchick.. humm,
"BTW" remark...have you stumbled over superg's change in outlook and focus. Interisting. ?

[warrensearle] 22/6/2013 18:11

On SQM.. at the investors presentation it was mentioned by jeff of the excellent relations with SQM with lance visiting and "many of their staff" having been over for training etc. is this because Iof were a customer of SQM or are the close links being fostered for a potential future acquisition - just thinking aloud

[madchick] 22/6/2013 17:52

che - I know it's only opinion, but I really think IOF will not sell out for less than 10 quid. This is partly based on the reports from the PI meeting where I think 10 quid was mooted (or did I remember that wrong) and a little theory I had a year ago that IOF had intimated a 20 quid target to SG based on the number of times he seemed to suggest this as a target or something like that - but I could have read too much into that! Either way, I think most people will think this is not "cheap", but I will. I really do not see IOF taking a deal in the 3-5 quid range and, like Scrutable, I am worried that most people may see anything over 8 quid or so as a good deal.

I still live in hope for independence based on the following:
1. Why bother designing the bigger units if they intend to sell up (but I guess it could be argued that they are proving a point / create fear and thus add value to the takeover)?
2. If they intended to sell up pretty soon, couldn't Lance have just eeked out his stay as CEO a tiny bit longer?
3. If they intended to sell up in the near term, why not just promote a CEO from within rather than do a head-hunt? Is it really worth hiring someone for just 18 months to sell off the business? They already have consultants should they really need it.
4. IOF doesn't have to be eaten up just because other companies won't want IOF to stay independent - with II support (and PI support) they should be able to defend themselves against a bid IF (big IF) the Bod want it. BTW, if the BoD do want a bid, I would not force them to keep it as they would not have the motivation to do well if they were forced to keep on.
5. Why mention dividends in 2015?
6. Why line up white knights (if true)?
7. Why even say they might consider a full listing - why not just say that the AIM rules were better and leave it at that?
8. Why was CF so insistent that they WILL have plants in texas if they are going to hand over to someone else after IO.6 - I thought he was strangely insistent on this point (IIRC, his point was that the ppms may not be so good but the volumes would make up for it)?

Hmm, that will do for starters!

BTW, I was a bit surprised at CF's comment that by havnig a prilling tower (if that's the right term), they were basically copying SQM and this would make SQM take notice. I kind of get the feeling there's a game being played here (that I don't quite understand)? He was also very firm (IMO) that the Japanese would be a threat but NOT SQM.

[madchick] 22/6/2013 17:50

che - I know it's only opinion, but I really think IOF will not sell out for

[scrutable] 22/6/2013 17:30

I wonder how many people have tried to correlate price falls with Sells. During the last week an out-of-balance of 10,000 has been sufficient to pull the price down each time. IMO the fall has less to do with the RNS or Bernanke or the tightening at the Chinese Central Bank than it has to with L&G still having a million shares to offload. They have clearly wrecked the sensitive balance previously in favour of buyers by hitting the sales column with !0,000 or 2x5000 three time per hour. This is not the selling pattern from PIs.

My broker friend does not agree and suggests that the market weakness has been exploited by market makers squeezing out the very large number of SBs in this stock. Why else have IG and Spreadex closed their doors on buyers of IOF other than they have exceeded their normal maximum positions. A selling pattern particularly prevalent last week was several successive x2000 or 2500 ie the pattern I have created on thge several occasions I have had successively to deleverage to protect my overall holding

When it's over the share price will just as quickly return in chunks of 5-15p/day till we get back to 235p and higher.

[superg1] 22/6/2013 16:52

Maca

I like the check everything view, I'm just 2 years down the line so fully understand.

Bag your last line.

'give me the facts man !!'

Exactly, that's the point, 'we' know what they are, but iof need to say it, with no more radar avoidance.

Always chilled Square 1,

[square1] 22/6/2013 15:01

Everybody needs to take a chill pill. Lots of going round in circles- posting and reposting stuff that's been gone over many times. Take a step back. Let this bb quieten down. There is much ado about nothing. Everything is fine. If your unhappy sell, if happy relax- a couple of months down the road things will be very different.

[monty panesar] 22/6/2013 14:52

Good post bobby shilling. People seems to be getting their knickers in a twist over nothing. This is a great company with a great future so not quite sure why people are fretting over a bit of a pullback in price. Welcome to the stock market!

[worraps] 22/6/2013 14:52

The word 'ping' is becoming very exciting.....it's going to mean a great deal when it happens, can't wait.

[plasybryn] 22/6/2013 14:49

It is difficult to go against the share price trend and the charts. Lost momentum and a bit of unease creeping in.

Perhaps best to wait for more concrete evidence of deliverables (hard numbers) and competent CEO to drive roll-out through.

[naphar] 22/6/2013 14:38

Scrutable, in case you do not see it, you have a private Message (envelope next to logout button)

[chrysalis99] 22/6/2013 14:10

Common sense seems to be prevailing. Short term share price movements are difficult to rationalise, let alone predict. In the longer term the share price will reflect profitability of the company. We are privileged to have plenty of information to allow a reasonable assessment of the future performance of IOF (more than any other investment that I own), so let's leave the Board alone to fulfil the potential here.

[n3tleylucas] 22/6/2013 14:01

The default setting appears to have undergone a 180 degree turn. It's now "good news if it tanks, I'll buy more thanks". A week or two ago it was "there's no supply, just how high?"

You can see how much this amuses me? Surely?