Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 22/6/2013 08:31

I fear the hype will increase as the share price falls BAG. You see it's all the fault of the BOD/NOMAD for poorly worded RNS's.

Next step is a protest letter with hundreds of names.

I've seen this behaviour before. It ends with BOD terminating the once helpful "communications" with shareholders.

You're praised to heaven as the share price rises, then damned as it falls.

When will BOD's learn that cosy relations with a rabid bulletin board will only last whilst the stock rises.

Another sign of inexperience I fear.

[writz] 22/6/2013 08:31

Festario, I agree with you on still being around in 2015. I'm in GKP (though not so much right now!) simply for the takeover. Here it's the opposite: I bought in because I saw a big future for the company, and so for me the prospect of a T/O is a threat to be averted not a goal to be reached. I hope that reflects the view of the BOD. And if so, I'm willing to withstand the trauma of losing a little jam today in order to secure a whole load of jam tomorrow - if that's what it takes. How far "keeping under the radar" during a market correction assists or undermines our cause is, of course, a difficult question. But if we're going to be here collecting a dividend in 2015, it will be because PIs and IIs both see the logic of the IOF business plan and believe it can happen to the point of delivering, in the near to medium term, for greater returns than they'd get by accepting an offer.

[baguette] 22/6/2013 08:09

I think its time to be honest and realise that because there will be widespread disappointment among shareholders at the the continuing delays, the share price could easily fall back to 120/130 range. I am certainly gritting my teeth and expecting this. Hey but you never win or lose until you sell.

Lets accept that io3 may not be commissioned and usefully productive until September. Not sure how io4 could be 30 days or so later but lets say early November. The wording of comments in the RNS about 5 & 6 is vague and does not mean that those plants will be anything more than design agreed or something less than installed anyway. So we will have 4 plants operational in 2013. That may not be enough to support the current share price let alone a big uplift in from where we are.

However if we can get a new good CE on board, get patent approvals, obtain the water approval and with io3 and 4 in place everyone will be feeling a whole lot better and will have learnt to deal with more modest and more realistic share price expectations for 2014. Maybe those things will help us back towards the mid £2-£3 range by year end but lets not expect any more please.

What we have arrived at is the realism of business- having lots of opportunities is great but managing them is not easy and what we have is a group of very experienced people but human and they have probably overhyped themselves a bit in the past and found out that reality is a hard boss.

Can we dispense with too much hype for now please and just accept the probability that the share price could drop a fair bit more so either hunker down or trim your holdings. I will not.

[peterz] 22/6/2013 07:33

Ansana - I do agree. Our dismay about the 'poor' RNS and negative communications about our excellent company should be made in writing and weighted by shareholder number. If our company have genuine reasons why they are avoiding being clear and upbeat to the market they could communicate this through one trusted shareholder - Sg.

[pcjoe] 22/6/2013 00:39

Maca 1212 - Re your comment below

"One thing is certain - I don't see the 'oilers' continuing to pick up the whole tab for brine disposal on wells that are trending towards non viability on oil and gas production while IOF gets to keep all the profit, and that's without the landowner's cut."


Just a thought re wells nearing the end of their commercial O&G lifespan - In the Miss lime - as you point out - this period is apparently characterised by higher levels of brine being produced - Not sure of the economics but IOF may be able to pick up these ageing wells for a song in the future - The price of Iodine in a few years time might well be worth a Frack or two - Just an idea....

[n3tleylucas] 22/6/2013 00:33

"A short statement followed by those who wish to submit their names would suffice."

This is how it begins.

[festario] 22/6/2013 00:31

SuperG, you are being rather cryptic about these 'stones' that you have unturned.
This has always been the most transparent board up to now, whats going on please?

If you can't divulge on here, please email me.

[festario] 22/6/2013 00:29

Retraces are inevitable, the steepness of it has wiped out my profit completely.
I can accept that, as I understand the value which WILL be added in the weeks and months to come.
However, I was also expecting some in the YEARS to come too, but talk has swung firmly in the direction of a takeover today.

I cannot reconcile this with the comments of IOF senior Execs only a few weeks ago when asked when dividends were likely to come on stream.
The answer was 'probably not in 2014, but expected in 2015'
Now which is it? Are we to be a viable producer in the future, creating wealth for shareholders? Or a 'here today, gone tomorrow' outfit being made ready for takeover at a quick premium?

I sincerely hope it is not the latter, as I am not here for that. It has unpleasant parallels with GKP if that is the case.
I would like to see IOF grow for decades to come, and building up in value as it goes along.
I'm sure the IOF employees would not be too happy at being a takeover vehicle only.

[ansana] 22/6/2013 00:11

My turn been out most of the day....
Why the disquiet because we don't know how far the share price will fall. A poor RNS the loss of the CEO, bloodbath on the general markets and slippage have caused our own share price slippage.

We are led to believe that
1. The patents are in the bag but they don't have absolute confirmation yet.
2. Virtually all the leases are in the bag but they haven't got absolutely all they want yet
3. The technology is proven
4. Water in the bag but they don't have absolute confirmation yet

IO3 is being constructed on site as I type and presumably IO4 is being fabricated.
They claim to have low capex, opex a stable market in which to operate and the latest hyper brines.

The PIs and Institutions until now have been compliant and supportive, all the resolutions were passed at the AGM and we continue to hold and add to our collective share holding. This holding runs into millions of shares.

While I can understand that the BOD want to be absolutely certain of the water, the leases and the patents before they shout from the rooftops about ppm's and mt per plant I can't help but think that if they continue giving the impression that they are plugging away by producing pedestrian news releases they may lose the support of some of the Institutions and many PIs. They can't afford to lose either. Look at L&G last week whose best interest did they have in mind when they dumped their shares direct into the market? not ours and not IOF's. Chris by all accounts was beside himself at the AGM because of the lack of information. The Iodine market is complex, and I think a nod, wink and Mutley chuckle cast in the direction of a few is a very odd way of disseminating information. None of us are short on expectation but what we need is a bit more evidence of delivery. For the company to continue growing we need new buyers. We seem to have plenty of sellers at the moment and too few buyers. Given the no news is due for x number of weeks and the lack of a CEO people are simply taking their money off the table. The buyers will come back as we get closer to news or the board decides to release an RNS on something that has a bit of the party atmosphere Scrutable was talking about.
So what next, if PIs feel that the Board have affected the share price
we should let them know how we feel. I understand that some of the Institutional investors have already said as much to IOF. SG has also told them its time to say more. Although SG is our spokes person this may be the time to add weight to his communication so they can be in no doubt about the strength of feeling. I suggest a list, we created a list of names very quickly when we were talking of an alternative board. A short statement followed by those who wish to submit their names would suffice. Given that SG has worded something already to make the link and our support clear we should perhaps use that or a version of that.

We can but hope that it makes them a little more thoughtful when they draft the next RNS.

Night All.

[hitsha3] 21/6/2013 23:55

not worry but want you're opinion, it is alwas good to get you're opinion, so what do you think.

[hitsha3] 21/6/2013 23:53

have still got our target for year end.

[hitsha3] 21/6/2013 23:51

SG, what happen this week is just the temporarly hitch, what do you think?

[superg1] 21/6/2013 23:45

Nev

Toyota aware , NO. Others maybe, but due to innocent digging and questions.

No stone is left unturned. Sometimes it isn't what's under the stone that counts but the stone itself. A 'doh' moment for me, as in my foraging I missed something, something very good..

[n3tleylucas] 21/6/2013 23:11

(BTW, wonder if we should have a bit of misinformation in Spanish and Japanese at the top of this BB?)

You mean a bit more?

[maca1212] 21/6/2013 23:11

sg,

Agree that produced water generally increases with well age, in fact it is a major contributor to the decision by the oil and gas companies to shut in wells and move on.

This quote:

"Lee et al.(2002) report that U.S. wells produce an average of more than 7 bbl of water for each barrel of oil. For crude oil wells nearing the end of their productive lives, water can comprise as much as 98% of the material brought to the surface."

From the report here:

hxxp://www.ipd.anl.gov/anlpubs/2004/02/49109.pdf

Highlights the issue, I cannot however see this (increase in water) in any way aiding IOF's mid stream business model if it is based on not carrying any part of the water disposal costs.

At 400ppm and $70 per kilo the iodine content in a barrel of brine is worth circa $4 at 100% extraction rate efficiency. Getting rid of the barrel of water might cost a lot less than this (in 2002 from 1 cent), but it could potentially cost more (as high as $8)!

One thing is certain - I don't see the 'oilers' continuing to pick up the whole tab for brine disposal on wells that are trending towards non viability on oil and gas production while IOF gets to keep all the profit, and that's without the landowner's cut.

M

Edit: BTW for those that are interested I was mistaken regarding the Kansas brine analysis, it covers samples from 8614 wells and can be downloaded from here:

hxxp://www.kgs.ku.edu/Magellan/Brine/

It has one sample showing iodine at 2080ppm, one 969ppm and 54 (from 8614) more with ppms above 0. Whether this gets you excited will clearly depend upon which end of the telescope you are holding.

[writz] 21/6/2013 23:00

Corrections are always a bit nerve-jangling. but this isn't a bottomless pit. We know an extraordinary amount about the company and its short and long term prospects. L&G have been selling down - but large blocks have been bought up. The rns, which reminded us that there's a bit of unaccounted risk in getting brines while the O&G companies dig more holes, has the virtue of keeping IOF as much under the radar as it's possible to be in this wired up world. (BTW, wonder if we should have a bit of misinformation in Spanish and Japanese at the top of this BB?). Oh, and the DOW finished 41 points up.

[n3tleylucas] 21/6/2013 22:38

There's a gap from 6/7 February ... 119.25/120.00.

[monty panesar] 21/6/2013 22:32

Dig,

If they had of said is IO2 running at 1t per day and IO3 would be running a month from now the price probably would be at an all time high irrespective of markets so IMHO filling the gap talk is coincidental rather anything else.

Monty

[madchick] 21/6/2013 22:26

I don't suppose anyone asked at the AGM where they stood on a potential takeover? At one point, I thought CF seemed quite keen to raise the issue but he then got diverted.

At the end of the day, the BoD will make the decision and they have declined (so I have heard) a bid for two quid in the early days. I don't doubt that the BoD will get the best price they can which I suspect would not be what most PIs would consider as a low bid, although I am with SCRUT in that any bid is a low bid to some extent (although I believe any accepted bid will give us the money now say at least one year earlier than we could realise it by waiting and keeping IOF; just guesswork based on my belief in the BoDs savvy).

I am also wondering whether the lack of CEO in place is a reason to remain under the radar. It's going to be difficult if they get the limelight and offers come in before they've managed to find a new CEO. Would a new CEO really want to come in just to negotiate the buy-out of the company? I'm actually in favour of still remaining under the radar for a while until the company is properly staffed (and let's hope they find a suitable person soon).

I'm unsure why CF didn't mention the benefits of AIM rules for takeovers when asked whether we move to FTSE if they were looking to be taken over?

I wasn't going to post on takeovers again but I did want to raise that issue with the CEO and state that I don't believe we will have a "cheap" takeover in the sense that I feel many are imagining/fearing.

[diggulden] 21/6/2013 22:18

If we move up from here, now that the 'gap' has been filled, I swear I will dedicate some solid hours to learning about charting!

[eeza] 21/6/2013 22:15

Gap on chart is now filled.
Funny how that always seems to happen?
SP was recovering well until AGM statement and now 30p+ off - all due to putting out an update which read like a profit warning.

[monty panesar] 21/6/2013 21:30

rb,

Agree management maybe being a little too cautious.

MP

[monty panesar] 21/6/2013 21:26

Putting things in simple terms the rollout is approx 6 weeks behind where it was expected to be. So what has happened? The price has fallen back to where we were 6 weeks ago.
Apologies if I am being blunt but that is the picture as I see it.

[rogerbridge] 21/6/2013 21:23

Monty, I agree with you 100%, but they should not de ramp either. I am sticking with IOF and I suppose it will give me the chance to snap up a few more soon.