Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 14/8/2014 18:25

VMH

I was thinking we may get no more or just one more now all 6 are running just to confirm all is well, after that I'm guessing things will return to normal news flow. I suspect the nomad will insist on it.

Some I follow don't seem to have any at all, and when they do release news it says nothing.

One is near 4 times it's price, and none of the promised contacts, events and timeframes have been met at all, 6 months late.

Oh and I'm still waiting for that GDL, promised early Q1 2013 update on that test well, that saw 100 million shares bought.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 18:15

As I said still a few here that haven't got the first clue about the business and position re each plant.

I forget how many posts were here about io4 low brine as it is built on a high spot. Then the countless questions about how they were to fix it. At the AGM there was talk of a pump being put in somewhere to fix the issue.

"IO#4 is currently being upgraded with a booster system which will be placed on the Operators SWD site and will be capable of delivering 30,000+ barrels per day of brine to the plant. The upgrade is expected to be complete in mid-August"

If that was all they managed this month that would have been great. But no, the long standing issue at io2 was resolved. I believe some brokers think io2 is a second hand unit. No it's NEW, it just had some chemical holding tanks and other bits already there, a whole 1 to 2 years old before they put the brand new io2 in.

And now it's better than ever with significant production upgrades from next week.

In the words of Mr Lenigas. I couldn't give a rats clacker who buys or sells, if you like it, buy, if you don't like it, sell.

If I like a share I buy some, If I don't, I don't buy, if I'm in and I don't like it anymore, I sell, simples.

The key point for me was that they needed to keep io1 to 3 going to ensure they met the required iodine supply for the chem div. I considered that when io4 to 6 are producing I can relax. They need 25 to 30 mt per month for the chem div, they had inventory, they got through it and on top of that did near record revenue for the last 3 months in each month.

Come the next few months they may achieve 40mt and 50 mt plus per month. At that point either they can meet any new chem div orders as they can supply the goods, or gain off-take agreements for the raw product as they can supply it.

They are now in a position where they can build an inventory to a level to cover any issues and sell the excess.

As you can see as mentioned with RB and lithium, agreements can be for years, and you don't have to supply up front, just during the period.

[verymaryhinge] 14/8/2014 18:04

"Monthly updates are good for the company" - LB doesn't agree.

[neddo] 14/8/2014 18:02

got over my little moan , smiling again.

[neddo] 14/8/2014 17:35

just what excuse can they use next month, I hope they don't need any?

[hew] 14/8/2014 17:06

Mr Big, we are not all in your position.

Monthly updates are good for the company as a discipline and as a frequent reminder that those who own it are to be reported to. And good/essential for most of those on here I believe. Some may not need them of course.

[1madmarky] 14/8/2014 16:39

Umm monthly updates... I fully approve of them. They are keeping our feet firmly on the ground. If we had not had them and just went by the 35-45 range then our expectations would have been 15mt out for this month alone. Then at some stage later on there would have been an almighty WTF. The updates are keeping both the management and the share price honest. That has got to be a good thing. Hope we get them during the winter months so we can equate the impact of the weather on production. Marky

[ansana] 14/8/2014 16:12

Well Spike those that read the RNS carefully this morning will realise that IOF have made improvements at existing locations. The greatest producing months are ahead of them so I choose to be as excited about that as I am sure they are. I anticipate that downtime will improve, recovery efficiencies will improve and costs will continue to improve. IOF have now produced more iodine in 2014 than they did in all of 2013. Is it such a surprise that the price has recovered. It's only a couple of weeks until the end of the month. Someone out there is hovering up the shares. So pleased I didn't sell today.

[spike_1] 14/8/2014 15:07

Back up to 60/62, well well well!

Let's se if we still have a seller at 60?

[19bells] 14/8/2014 14:37

Fantastic share price recovery!!! Fingers crossed it holds up. If it does proves the strength and progress

[mister big] 14/8/2014 13:53

It's a small developing business - the management need to be judged on medium term goals ( I disapprove of monthly updates for that reason . A quarterly update btw would have read as bang on target !
Anyway I'm happy that they are delivering on objectives and if they produce 50mt in August that's good news

[ammons] 14/8/2014 13:33

Less volatility?

Well it cant get any worse!

Freshvoice, you forgot the one about unexpected diversion of the brine!

"The site experienced downtime due to maintenance, power/electrical outages, and low-flow from the Operator. The Company is addressing issues with truck deliveries and has identified several truck routes that have been diverted for reasons 'un-approved' by the Operator."

Roll on the mobiles........

[mister big] 14/8/2014 13:06

Events dear boy events , the more plants you have the more stability you get . As someone in the mining industry it's not so easy - however half way through August they will know the likely outcome so 50mt is a nice move forward.100mt for last three months will run rate trending higher .
I think it's encouraging all six io are live and we will see less volatility .
On track

[freshvoice] 14/8/2014 12:51

Hutt
They always have reasons
It'so not my fault gov honest


I recruited idiots to run the company
They put the plant in the wrong place
There's oil in the brine.
The oil company keeps drilling wells and messing up our supply
The weather is cold
The weather is hot
There are thunderstorms
The electricity company can't connect power
Those Chileans are pushing the price down
Someone removed the filter
Someone forgot to clean the filter
Someone recruited expensive staff we didn't need


Are there any new ones we can use next month?
I am beginning to sound like Nutters! Better go and have a drink.

[neddo] 14/8/2014 12:42

hutt,
well said ,exactly, I was a 10 bagger once , here, now one and a bit,

[superg1] 14/8/2014 12:40

Neddo

So a complete upgrade at io2 turning into it's best possible potential, complete solution to the brines at io4 achieved post huge moaning on here re that issue, IO3 better position that it has ever been in, Io5 started, io6 started, and company excited about it, all achieved since the last update is not progress.

A few weeks and a 600mt forecast rate, v sod all and falling apart 3 months ago.

Sounds real bad, lazy sods.

Meanwhile back at the Barder HQ. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[huttgl] 14/8/2014 12:19

I'm not a great believer in IOF predictions as they don't have much of a track record in meeting them. That said they ought to have a bloody good idea of what they expect to produce in August as we're halfway through the month already.
Facts are:
May 40.5 mt
June 30.6 mt
July 24.5 mt
Before anyone says it, I know they have given reasons - they always do.
No mention of mobiles.

[1madmarky] 14/8/2014 12:00

Yeah first of the mobiles at IO 2's location would now make sense assuming that the brine supply will be sufficient to warrant it.

[senden11] 14/8/2014 12:00

A very fair retort neddo, however, this set of projections seems to be on an infinitely sounder footing.

[wester1] 14/8/2014 11:58

Whilst July is very poor, we have clear guidance for the present month. Since when did the stock exchange look backward? Only where they dont believe management's guidance. That is the call each holder needs to make.

If you trust them then the present price is imo a bargain. If you dont, then sell up and extricate yourself as the price has been steady despite the July figs. Anyone who has been here for a while should know the management we now have, and be comfortable that we are on an upwards trajectory. I am holding and looking to add.

[neddo] 14/8/2014 11:56

phoenixs

I seem to remember a lot of projections that failed over the past, promises, promises ? I hope this one is right?

[phoenixs] 14/8/2014 11:50

neddo,
I disagree with you. Whilst production is not what I had hoped for, the August projection is good, end of August run rate projection is better and going forward to September, it all looks set for 50 mt+ per month. I think that all is set fair for the future.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 11:46

Ansana

There are some major updates in that which I and a few others understand fully.

I'm a bit of an elephant when it comes to remembering information, but tell me your name of the first tee and I've forgotten it by the time I'm sticking the tee in the ground.

EG

io2 there is no doubt it is a stonking plant and it has been carrying huge responsibility for months, now we learn it was doing very well, but no where it's best.

The figures with just io1 and 2 running (others didn't exist) for 1 month were and average of .85 mt per day, with some hitting 1mt.

We knew them io1 was .15mt per day (1 mt per week), that means io2 was on .75 per day.

They said, at the same time up to 50% higher was anticipated.

Today they say immediate better production and anticipated significant improvement come next week (post operator improvements).

So come next week it seems io2 could be at a rate of at least 1mt per day.

The arrival of 3 to 6 has been a painful wait, but now all are running.

Io1 does .15 or more I suspect.

For the 1.7 to be hit then they need .55 from 4 plants.

io4 got it's brine redirection and they previously stated around 20k bpd going to that. A ppm of 100 is near .3 mt per day.

No idea re 3 and 5 they are running but no clear guidance on bpd. It must be ok and profitable as if they weren't they wouldn't run them

6 says excited re prospects, good quantity and good quality brine. Io4 is good quantity but no excitement comment.

That tells me io6 is a high ppm site and if it fits ppm rumblings then will contribute very well if it runs smoothly utilising all the brine there.

So 1.7 mt as an exit rate and 40mt this month is not a bridge too far on decent run rates.

The situation at io2 and 4 has significantly improved.

with the 2 new plants running, and io4 sorted, the pressure on io2 has lifted. They have got through the critical period, meeting all their need and inventory in place, with excess production about to hit.

It is overall a fantastic update. I'd give up 10mt of production any day for them to sort the oil issue at the SWD where IO2 is. That loss will pay back within a month or two due to the upgrades.

In theory that means Midstates will sort all their SWDs where IOF can then put pods or other plants.

Now we now what they have been busy sorting out.

IO2, IO4, IO5 and IO6 all ticked off the list, nothing left to improve their other than wait for more brine as the frack action drops off.

Now they can start to think about and concentrate on the move re pods and other plant/s

Pod sites said to be 200 to 1000ppm.

I'm happy.

Had it been 40mt this month it would have been a full house and tbh I'm very pleasantly surprised re the upgrades at io2 and 4, and excited about the potential at io6.

Had it been a full house, the only difference would have been the amount of sellers/traders cashing in their recent gains.

Those that sold, saw 25mt, looked no further, and pressed sell.

[neddo] 14/8/2014 11:28

not what I expected, and the same old names making excuses? winter coming, and if you have never been to that part of the world, not very nice.