Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 14/8/2014 11:19

Some excellent details today:

"The Company is expected to exit August producing 1.7 mt/day under normal, or expected, operations. Total August production is expected to be 40mt. The Company reiterates its full year production guidance. The Company had revenues for the Period of c.$2.7 million."

So we should average 1.3 MT per day over the month, we know IO6 is starting up this week, IO5 is probably ramping up and IO4 will be boosted.

So the exit rate this month is expected to be 30% higher than the average production over the month (1.3mt to 1.7mt).

We are now getting to a run rate of 600 MT plus per year, I hope the Chemical side can expand alongside as it seems to be doing so we can take advantage of the vertical model.

All looking promising if they can become more consistent, the changes this month look like we are getting to that point of good optimisation:

"We accomplished several critical tasks in the latter half of the Period and first week of August to position Iofina in an advantageous position to achieve maximum production for all plants. "

September potential (30 days) - we know 50MT+ is possible, I look forward to see how these changes affect the monthly total.

[bobsworth] 14/8/2014 11:17

Hurray! We have 6 plants in production and 50mt a month on the cards! Iam happy with that!
Considering all the hurdles and fracking hells that have been presented to Iofina this summer by the O&G operator I think Lance and his team have done a brilliant job in coming up with long term solutions to offset these interruptions and boost brine supply.
With 6 plants now built and the brine supply interruptions now coming to an end, let's hope Lance and his team will now have more time to focus on the planning detail needed for Iofina to expand quickly should the expected demand come in early 2015.
With strong interest in long term supply maybe now they will have the time and confidence to even commit to an offtake supply agreement or two with all the expansion planning that will entail.
Glad we are moving forward again & looking forward to their next development!

[phoenixs] 14/8/2014 11:03

Bogg1e,
They have had an inventory. The production through August will more than meet their monthly needs so they will be building inventory again to sell outside of company. In house usage around 350 mt pa.

[bogg1e] 14/8/2014 10:58

If they only hit 24 tonnes then will they have enough in inventory to cover any temporary shortfall in iodine at IOC?

[che7win] 14/8/2014 10:49

IO4 production could go up 2 fold? I would understand 100% increase, but twice current production potentially, that's hard to take in....

". IO#4 is undergoing an upgrade which will potentially increase production by 150-200%. "

[ansana] 14/8/2014 10:47

Exactly SG you get a picture of the real and substantive changes IOF have been putting in place for the last few months when you read their previous RNS releases. They have been preparing for the time when the fracking disruption will diminish. It's been a balance between upgrading for the future and satisfying Mr Market, Mr Market is rarely ever satisfied. However, we have a buyer and some interest in the company again so that too is a pleasant change. Someone or an Insti realises we are going in the right direction. Interest is returning just as production is about to be significantly increased, funny that.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 10:15

There were a few potential news items there fresh.

IO4 brine flow situation now resolved by the fitting of a booster pump. I assume in the pipeline system somewhere by Chesa, to combat the gravity feed issue due to the way the land lies. That is not just about IOF but Chesa making full use of an SWD.

RNS 2

Io2 swd entirely updated by the operator significantly reducing oil issues that have plagued us in the past. Now Io2 can operate to it's maximum efficiency and we have seen immediate improvement with significant upgrades next week.

RNS 3

Io5 powered up and producing utilising all brine available.

Io6 slight delay but good quality and good quantity brines, excited about the production potential.

Expected to hit an overall 600mt annual rate within 2 weeks with further optimisation expected as the frack schedules reduce as the summer period ends.

RNS 4

Chem div, near record revenues for each of the last 3 months in spite of the sharp drop in iodine prices.

The nomad decides what goes in a release and whether an rns will be released. The company provides what releases it would like, and what is in them.

The nomad will say no to some rns releases, and get the delete button active re content.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 09:59

On a different matter. I've been tracking Iquequi where the iodine capital is as pre and post the April big earthquake they have been experiencing decent continued multiple quakes (5.7 yesterday)

Note the BBC report just out



They tell Nature magazine that the levels of strain in the rocks of the region are still hazardously high.

And the researchers say communities should prepare for the possibility of future events being much more energetic even than the 1 April rupture.

Both teams say that the 2014 quake, together with its sequence of foreshocks and aftershocks, was insufficient in scale to remove all the strain that had built up in the rocks since 1877.

"Only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude [greater than] 8.5," write Dr Schurr and colleagues in Nature. In terms of the energy released, an 8.5 event is almost three times as big as an 8.2.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 09:50

Fresh

Listen to Lenigas links.

An MM is very happy and on the second coffee which tastes much sweeter having taken some off people for 54/55 and 56p, having paid 60p for them recently.

It's blatantly obvious a buyer has been there and is still there, so the 25mt micro view provided a perfect shake opportunity.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 09:33

Io2

Due to go full tilt next week on record rates, IO2 is a lucrative site and now looks set to do what we said it would do all that time ago.

Io6 They are excited and if you read the rns it is receiving good quantity, good quality brine

That tells me it's the higher ppm site of the io3 to 6 run, with good bpd levels = good production

IO4 pump put in and the brine redirection problem sorted. Many made a big issue of that problem, but now are slow to applaud the fix.

io5 running and taking every last drop of brine available.

io3 best running yet but still awaits frack disruption end.

Even with all the chaos, last 3 months revenue on iodine floor prices look equal to over 40% of what they did in total for 2012 or 2013 when the prices were a lot higher.


Yeah 30mt, 35mt or 40mt would have been great, and unfortunately some saw 25mt and didn't read the rest which is highly promising, or consider what the monthly revenue actually amounted to under the iodine price circs and historical revenue.

Now it will be very interesting if we get that iodine shortage come Q1/H1 2015, in theory it should happen, if it does inventories will be wiped out. Not that it seems SQM and others have been building any, they have been cutting back.

RB have inventory, news later today re Q2 and maybe where they are re funding.

$50 mill needed is the suggestion, but they are up to their neck in debt already. Iodine revenue supposedly keeping the lithium production going in the last few weeks.

[freshvoice] 14/8/2014 09:30

Oh and 5 and 6 whilst now ok did not hit the promised date. Now we know why the report was delayed. It would have been difficult to say we produced less than 30 and the two new plants are late.

[freshvoice] 14/8/2014 09:27

I can' the that optimistic
The monthly figures are
40s
30s
20s
Always jam tomorrow, will they hit the annual target?
They are having to up the future monthly needed at each RNS.
disappointed.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 09:05

Some interesting figures

H1 2012: $7,667,162

H1 2013 $11,556,468 (around $4m more than 2012)

Revenue 2013 $18,931,230 meaning around $7.4 mill for H2


This year for where it's reported in detail (not checked Jan to March news yet)

May production
The Company had near record sales for the month which demonstrates good demand for our products.

June production
The Company had near record sales again for the month which demonstrates good demand for our products."

July production
The Company had near record sales again for the month which demonstrates good demand for our products $2.7 mill reported.


Near record record sales reported for the last 3 months and $2.7 mill reported for July.

3 x 2.7 gives $8.1 mill for that 3 month period. That is more than H1 2012 and more than H2 2013.

2012 was the big iodine price hike period and now for the last 3 months IOF report near monthly record rates.

If we take near record guided by $2.7 mill then the last 3 months amount to 42% plus of the entire revenue for 2013.

As for frack disruption IOF did say it would be around in this period but today they also said

"We are on track for production guidance and are looking forward to the fracking schedule becoming less of a factor as the summer months come to a close."


So it looks like 40% of their best ever yearly revenue in just 3 months, when the iodine market is seeing crashing prices.

Iofina press on with increasing production, increasing revenue and costs reducing.

Everyone else in the business is seeing reduced production lay offs, reduced revenues, mines closing, court cases, managers imprisoned, $70 mill court order, $6 mill fine, $9 mill claim, plus a US city case ongoing, tax hikes, tax favours closed, rising costs, etc etc etc.

For those that understand the business and sector, it's all looking very pretty indeed.

For those short-sighted the mms just flushed some out with a smile.

[bocker01] 14/8/2014 08:56

With 6 plants up and running, risks are spread and 40 tons becomes the new disaster level of monthly production.

[pigeon1] 14/8/2014 08:55

I was a bit worried on first read this morning, but market choosing to focus on the guidance for August which is an encouraging and reassuring step up. The fact that we are today 14th Aug and this is the first time he's guided, makes me think that this 1.7mt target will be comfortably beaten - otherwise why do it? It could actually be well and truly smashed if IO2 is really flying as Superg points out.

The steady buying this last few weeks and solid reaction today also makes me think something else is going on here but i've no idea what that is.

[senden11] 14/8/2014 08:50

SP bouncing back quite strongly...with forward-looking figures like those provided today, what an absolute bargain!!

[captain_kurt] 14/8/2014 08:48

"We accomplished several critical tasks in the latter half of the Period and first week of August to position Iofina in an advantageous position to achieve maximum production for all plants"

Not long before we are re-testing 60p again imo

[rybnikcat] 14/8/2014 08:40

Despite unexpected glitches, which are bound to occur, isn't it nice to have management who seem to know what they are doing, unlike the last lot who appeared to be blundering around in the dark?

[rhwillcoll] 14/8/2014 08:36

Nice to see the AT buyer at it again this morning: the gobbling-up
machine. For anybody with a nose longer than a fortnight, that was
a great RNS.

[garfield31] 14/8/2014 08:34

Timing of update excellent - allowed sensible information about future production as well as past months production. Far preferable to an update which was just limited to July's figures. Very positive content and much encouraged.

[orslega] 14/8/2014 08:33

ansana - well put

[superg1] 14/8/2014 08:28

And the other point

July near record revenue $2.7 mill

They said near record last month

So June/July over $5 mill revenue, probably $5.4 mill

May/June production = round 70mt x $40 per kg iodine price rate $2.8 mill.

So the chem div revenue is near double the production rate they hit.

Excess iodine will obviously go out the door at the going rate, unless they see increased chem div orders.

They plan to get costs down further, the higher the iodine output, the more the opex drops v fixed costs.

The end goal is high teens, when pods appear on higher ppm lower costs the opex level will continue down. If another plant appears on a similar io2 site opex will go down.

[warmsun] 14/8/2014 08:24

Thank you MMs...got some more below 58p!

[ansana] 14/8/2014 08:23

Given they are 14 days into the month and stating the target of 40mt for August they must have a pretty good idea they can hit it. The future is a great deal brighter than it was just a few months back. What Lance has said he will do is happening month on month. We have known not to expect a massive amount until August they have had to correct the the enormous problems created by the past management who did us all a favour in the end and walked away. The need for substantive changes was made clear at the AGM. August is here so now it begins, plant changes and improvements have been made so we can expect improved production and greater production consistency going forward as the fracking programme has less impact. Lance knows what the market expects. Lance delivered before he will deliver again.

[superg1] 14/8/2014 08:16

ammons

Did you sell ?

They just reported that in 2 weeks time they will hit a 600mt annual rate.

Did you read the rns.

Io2 back on 18.7 k bpd did .7mt per day. They just said, it has immediately seen increases due to the changes, and should see significant increases next week. The brine at that site is higher than it's capacity.

IO3 best run time yet, still awaits frack disruption before it gets to optimal output

IO4 Now sorted with a pump to get maximum brine flow, a matter that many had been worried about.

IO5 power sorted on time. A matter that some thought would get delayed.

IO6 a slight delay, but now running, and they are excited about the prospects of io6. From rumours re ppms either io5 or 6 is on ppm rates materially better than io3 or 4.

Given that io1 and io2 (on 18.7k bpd) were doing an average .85mt way back, the changes at io2 looks like it means that plant is going to start moving to it's full potential which I have as over 1mt per day on it's own.

The io2 comments today finish off a cloud of confusion for me and it was said the last lot removed filters which caused the pre Lnace back issue.

Now Midstates have completely upgraded it to solve the issue io2 had. That is not about helping IOF, IOF identified their problem.

The io2 SWD rate was 51k bpd at one point, at 2% oil loss (the new rate)that's 1000 bpd of oil going back down a well 365,000 barrels per year, . What were they at before ??, it must have been far worse.

There was talk that the new midstates team were to work on efficiencies in various areas and now it seems it has been done and will continue.

The area midstates are in is rich in iodine, perhaps the oil issue is why some plants went elsewhere, and why now we hear of very good sites now waiting for pods or plants.

When you do the maths, the 1.7mt forecast exit rate isn't mad compared to what an efficient io2 can do, and obviously below the end rate they expect once plants are optimised.