Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 26/7/2014 13:59

SG thanks again to the No1 mens detective agency, SA branch :-)

[engelo] 26/7/2014 13:57

naphar/cyber exactly: maybe we'll even get a ping! Think the next 2 months (in time for the interims) will be very exciting with so many things coming into line: 6 plants, Midstates fracking subsiding, minis, sales deals and Chile/iodine price.

[monty panesar] 26/7/2014 13:51

Superg,

Is it right to say that for SQM the Victoria mine is by far their cheapest mine with cost in the $30-35 range? All the others have costs of over $40.
Since the Victoria mine only has 7 years left at the current extraction rate then with such a short life on the mine it would seem unlikely they would build a new seawater pipeline unless they have other mining interests in the vicinity.
All I am thinking is SQM(when the news regs ome in force)might decide to extent the life of the Victoria mine by significantly cutting back on production.

Any thoughts?

[sancler] 26/7/2014 13:43

I would not claim to have understood it all re the Chile court case. But it looks to me as though it may be a very long time before it has any direct effect on iodine supply.

The case has already been going on for years: "After an intricate legal dispute that lasted years in Chile and abroad ..." [2nd para]

This was not the end of the road: "... lost ONE OF the final battles ..." [2nd para, EMPHASIS added]

And they haven't given up fighting: "According to the record of the 30th Civil Court, within days of the ruling [that is, 27 June] issued Bosselin law firm, Briones, & Sánchez Irureta three appeals filed for the purpose of reversing the judgment against Errazuriz Ovalle, but to date these requests have joined the Court of Appeals of Santiago." [24th para (I think)]

And, if I've understood the Chilean court system correctly, there would be the possibility of a further appeal to the Supreme Court by the party that the Court of Appeals of Santiago ruled against.

This is not to say that Cosayach's other problems may not impact on iodine supply much sooner. But I think the court case could run and run.

[superg1] 26/7/2014 13:32

Gad

I was told way back Cosayach had killed off a section of unique forest, so that fits.

SQM have 570 litres per second rights and about 70 percent of their iodine production in the area of the water theft.

It's all in the vicinity of Pozo Almonte.

The 150 rule if imposed (likely) would take a year or two to be implemented but it would end their iodine operations at Neuve Victoria IMO.

They would be forced in the 665mill pampa move earlier than they currently want.

If Cosayach are going to fold that is major news in the iodine world. SQM would be doing a merry dance.

Fingers crossed the wheels forecast to come off in Chile if prices dropped or seawater needed is in full motion.

It's speculation on Cosayach, but if they go the end user stock piling should start and compound the issue.

[gadolinium] 26/7/2014 13:00

Nice find Super, and further on Cosayach's woes.

From the July issue of Industrial Minerals. According to a 'source familiar with the situation' following Cosayach's illegal water extraction in Tarapaca province the Chilean government may now 're-distribute' the mining and land use rights presently held by Cosayach at some point.

Although SQM hold legal rights to groundwater extraction in Tarapaca province, according to the same source, the aquifers are now thought to be too low for further extraction to take place. The water theft having led to massive deforestation in the region.

[cyberbub] 26/7/2014 11:43

If it looks like iodine is likely to break past $50 then I can see us making a rapid return to 100p... assuming progress on increasing production is maintained...NAI

[naphar] 26/7/2014 11:10

Seems to me this could well be the beginning of a new perfect storm for iof to take advantage of. With Lance at the helm, maybe better chances of success than last time as well. Could be an interesting 12 months ahead.

[superg1] 26/7/2014 11:04

Cyber

The last time around (2001) SQM offered 140mill dollars for them which was to go through.

However Cos don't have certain EIAs, and were nicking SQM water (those sqm rights may get stuffed shortly).

If this is a serious threat to Cosaych disappearing then SQM need do nothing more than let the iodine price rise.

It was said some time back they want 50 plus per kg.

We could be jumping the gun here, but as you say it looks very serious and more reporting to come.

The Marubeni comment has me head scratching. Is it a suggestion that Cos lied about a link up with them?

[bogg1e] 26/7/2014 10:56

SG nice find. So it looks like cosayach with the whole group of companies owned by the same family are to be sold to pay off $1.3 billion in missed payments. ouch. No-one though will buy Cosayach if their operations are being closed down by a separate court ruling.

[superg1] 26/7/2014 10:43

They were under 2000 mt but with the water theft saga it was suggested they were around 2750 to 3000. That sudden increase is said to be where the cheap iodine came from.

We'll have to wait and see what happens, but IF it wipes out Cosayach, then those end users that left SQM for cheap Cosayach iodine are in the poop.

SQM do not have an iodine tap they can just turn on. They have dumped one mine, a plant and 3,500 staff (employees and contractors)

RB on the tightrope.

Bullmine stopped mining allegedly as the price is too low.

Water reforms forecast to appear in a week or two.

[cyberbub] 26/7/2014 10:20

Jeez you don't need a perfect translation to see that Cosayach is in severe trouble. Of course the owners will get off scot free, the rich always do, but the company (and the whole family group of companies) looks like it's screwed. I suppose eventually someone will come along and buy the company from the wreckage, but if they have to pay staff properly and not engage in crooked behaviour, their costs are going to go waaay up.

[tim3416] 26/7/2014 09:56

Can you remind me of Cosayachs current output of iodine at the moment SG?

[superg1] 26/7/2014 09:31

What is does translate too Tim is the Japanese and other end users having further evidence not to get involved with supply from Cosayach.

Still waiting on details of the impact of the water theft side.

That bank case looks pretty serious to me.

[tim3416] 26/7/2014 08:11

Well it's not the best translation but it doesn't look good for Cosayach

[superg1] 26/7/2014 07:57

Thanks Tim

The media report date is 24th July 14.

It just shows what a bunch of crooks that lot are. Going back to rumour control, there was a post of a rumour a month or two back that Cosaych were heading for money problems so selling iodine cheaply to get cash.

It´shard with the translation to work out exactly what is going on, but hopefully more news articles may break with further details soon.

No doubt Cosaych have others chasing them. I know there was article about someone after them for about $100 mill but I dont think that was a German bank.

Fingers crossed this may well spell the beginning of the end of the iodine production crooks.

Don't worry about employees Cosaych hire and fire all every year to avoid paying pensions. They do nopt treat employees well.

[superg1] 26/7/2014 07:06

I´m hoping what I have just found is as it reads. However I am in a very poor wi fi area and I´m struggling with the translation.

There is a lot of information in it.

Please could some kind folk here use google translate and try and work out what is going on.

In short from some basics I could see, it sounds like some German bank and other cases have just completely destroyed the entire Cosayach set up. So you can see why I would like a few to read it and try to work out what is going on, and if current etc.

If it is current and is as read, then the iodine market is going to turn on it´s head.

[monty panesar] 25/7/2014 21:50

Let's hope IO5 and 6 have now been hooked up in last 10 days so iodine production(and share price) can go up to the next level.

[danster4] 25/7/2014 21:40

Excellent, onwards and upwards!

[festario] 25/7/2014 21:30

I seem to have been resurrected,

The Power of Madchick knows no bounds....!

Perhaps there is a 'sin-bin' feature on ADVFN?

[angel of the north] 25/7/2014 18:08

Thought that chart was upside-doon for a moment there! lol!