Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 22/7/2014 08:55

Peartree

Looks good that one but sentiment IMO will be low due to flops by other manufacturers, not surprising really with some others with price points 10 times plus.

JB

Still watching but all in costs are key.

[superg1] 22/7/2014 08:28

The flat price in recent times has been in some ways a pleasure.

On that point I mean we seem to have lost the short term gamblers who bet cash they don't have on credit via T trades and the like, that's where the volatility tends to come from on forced sells.

Plenty of such action elsewhere in recent times for those folk to lose money on.

Now waiting for updates rather than betting on what may be.

If Cosayach did lose production recently then it seems the only iodine producer increasing production anywhere is IOF.

The viewing of the circs of others is just a case of potentially being months ahead of the market in terms of the industry. The price effect that has on the commodity in such a niche unknown sector tends to be rapid once it happens (as we have seen before).

With growth since 2012 then it should mean 2000mt plus demand increase by the time we hit 2015.

SQM sirocco 3000 mt offline.

Cos as yet unknown, Algorta said to have pulled back. Bullmine said to have stopped mining (1000mt).

Sirocco could fold any time.

In the current circs it could mean a 7000mt plus gap come 2015, with 5000 mt already identified.

The Chile folk have been very quiet this year compared to last year when prices were rising.

If the above is anywhere near right then inventories will start to empty H2 and going into Q1 2015. If right that will mean end users will bulk buy to get low prices and in fear of shortages, that then compounds the price issue as mines have closed.

RB, SQM (certain mines) and now it seems Bullmine need higher prices to make production viable.
Algorta and acf who supply about 15 to 20 percent of the market seemed to have opex at these price levels.

Something has to give at some point of iodine end users next year are going to be letting their customers down.

End users can bully on price drops, but once the dust settles and it dawns on them it's just Cosaych disrupting things, the wheel for them will fall off, and producers will keep long term customers happy.

[monkeymagic3] 22/7/2014 08:26

superg1 22 Jul'14 - 07:59 - 22907 of 22908 1 0

Fest

How can nothing be on the horizon. You have to look in the direction of the horizon to see it, there are a number of things on the horizon but they are not all visible to the naked eye.



And they are not all necessarily "good".

[joestalin] 22/7/2014 08:20

Not down to IOF charts, you are not. This is entirely news driven.

[superg1] 22/7/2014 07:59

Fest

How can nothing be on the horizon. You have to look in the direction of the horizon to see it, there are a number of things on the horizon but they are not all visible to the naked eye.

RB energy investors are going on about an investigation re selling pre bad news. It was posted here about the drop and rumours of their lithium grade not being up to scratch. News yesterday confirmed that.

Other rumours kicking about as yet unconfirmed by any web media etc is that Scm Bullmine have stopped mining. That could be around 1000mt plus dropping off the production list.

Sirocco/RB pulled back 500mt and by the look of it things could go sour, that would be another 1000mt gone.

All worth watching for the potential.

No the market won't have the slightest clue until someone somewhere puts it in black and white.

Rumours about someone sniffing around PRG went on before some time, it took a news article to force an rns about who it was.

There are a few similar rumours about a few I follow now, but I haven't seen the details posted anywhere.

[joestalin] 22/7/2014 07:27

Another chartist who can see into the future......

Why are these people not all rich?

[madchick] 21/7/2014 20:58

IO.5 and IO.6 are behind original (revised) schedule, so maybe that's why we're dropping a bit. On AIM, though, it's hardly a huge drop we've seen. It's all a bit boring just now, but I'm sure it will get more interesting in the next two months.

[monty panesar] 21/7/2014 19:17

It's tempting now! The LB of old always had a trick up his sleeve if I remember correctly so looking forward to the next update.

[cyberbub] 21/7/2014 19:04

If this drifts to the low 40s I think an awful lot of people will be topping up... me included!

[rogerbridge] 21/7/2014 18:31

I think that you maybe about right Bogg1e.
Very encouraging research from SG on competitors and we should be increasing production month by month.
I am content to wait for a positive outcome, not posted recently.
Looks as though IOF and QFI could be heading the same way come September/October.

[bogg1e] 21/7/2014 18:25

All the market is waiting for is the assurance that Iofina can deliver consistent and profitable production. Give it another 3 months. IO5 and 6, production overview complete, further plant and mini orders and probably water hearing by then; the right to deny was announced mid april. Most updates from the water authorities have been 3 to 6 months max, so hopefully by september the hearing results will be known.

[sfox1] 21/7/2014 18:10

Long this since 50 bought it despite technically looked bearish below key ma avgs on daily and crossover let's c how this plays out need to recapture 20 and 50 ma for a start

[festario] 21/7/2014 18:07

Indeed Angel, those who have said that the chart is curving upwards are not living in the real world.Arron Banks even, didn't want a trading lesson from me, but all these purchases at 49.5p are now in a loss position, including the 50k of mine that he kindly took off my hands.I will keep the rest of my holding for now, but I see little on the horizon to get enthused about.Hope I'm wrong, and we wake up to a few killer RNS's to add value for us poor beleaguered shareholders.

[freshvoice] 21/7/2014 17:46

You wouldn't think the other suppliers had problems looking at our price.
Either Mr Market doesn't know what is going on or we are the only ones in step?

[angel of the north] 21/7/2014 17:02

All this seemingly good news and all we get here is drip, drip, drip and it pi$$es me off!

[superg1] 21/7/2014 16:23

I think the good old Sirocco team now in charge of RB energy are back on the BS trail.

The Tewoo deal is for 5 years from Sept 12 for 12000 mt per year.

The Marubeni deal is for 5000 mt per year over 3 years from Jan 13.

The important point for both is that the deals are for BATTERY GRADE lithium.

Both should have had plenty by now. Tewoo did a pre payment of 5 mill dollars which RB have spent. RB have yet to supply any lithium to them.

In today's announcement it says-:

: "Currently the plant is focused on building to commercial production volumes of technical grade material and achieving regular delivery of product to our off-take partners. " 


So to me that sounds like they are covering up a serious problem, neither supply agreement is for technical grade lithium, which is a lower grade and not battery grade.

The 'and achieving regular delivery of 'product' to our off-take partners' seems to read as attempt to combine the sentence to make it look like the commercial technical grade will be sold tothe partners.

Of the product, or of that product may have linked it, but the way it's worded they are going to produce technical grade for which they have no buyer.

A play on words it seems to cover up they will have no product at all to supply to Tewoo or Marubeni near term.

[freshvoice] 21/7/2014 15:33

I doubt they will give out news of new plants operating until the July production report.

[bobsworth] 21/7/2014 15:21

Appreciate all your hard work SG and thanks for sharing it with us all.
Lets hope RB's troubles result in yet more customers knocking on Iofina's door for a longterm guaranteed supply of iodine.

Che7win
On the 9th July they said plant 5 should be connected within the next two weeks, which takes us to this wed, so news on Thurs might be possible.

[bocker01] 21/7/2014 15:10

che, we are certainly undervalued. I am looking for a 50 percent rise by end Q3. That's your 75p. We should easily be at annualised rates of 700 tonnes by then
...... evidenced. With more plants on the way and quite possibly off take agreements. One pound or more by year ought be achievable.

[spike_1] 21/7/2014 14:58

'Good' to know we are not the only company that can screw things up, at least our tunnel has light at the end, and finance doesn't seem to be an issue.

And it would be ever so nice if IOF can get IO#5 and / or 6 making whirling noises, or whatever passes for production, assuming there has been the odd day or two without lightning strikes in the area.

Best wishes - Mike