Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 23/7/2014 10:17

Like Mr B I´m chilled and looking forward to some `potential` in the next month or two.

If Chile was getting cheaper with lower taxes coming and lower costs, then I wouldn´t be so chilled.

The fact is there is a shed load of legisalation and costs rise that will impact miners and in particular iodine miners (lack of water planning) in the next year or two.

Come H1 2015 in theory an iodine shortage will appear, end users then load up to grab the available inventory and the game starts all over again.

Q3 SQM made plans v others expanding, not only did they not expand some have gone completely the other way.

Look at SQM sales v production in the iodine crisis, they clearly had good inventory, when that was done, the price went daft.

When inventories are done in what is norally a slow 2nd half, the tide should be out H1. Maybe end users will get a sniff of that when year end contracts are negotiated at SQM.

The cartel of the iodine market is not pretty it´s in trouble and the one causing the dusruption with 10% of the market can only hold out for a short time. The costs variations we tend to see are for the non contracted left overs.

Cosaych had to go cheap as they let down contracted customers in the last well closure round in 2011. Those end users then had to go cap in hand to SQM and others paying daft prices.

SQM clearly said no to cheaper contracts and pulled some production due to costs.

It should all reveal itself at some point.

[dcgray21] 23/7/2014 10:08

Thanks guys - market seems to like your numbers :)

[cyberbub] 23/7/2014 09:56

Fellers you might like to take a look at PMR.Cash and liquid assets cover over 100p of the share price, and the company looks likely to make £3m+ post-tax this year, with divis resuming soon.Should be about double its current price IMO...No advice intended of course... I do have a holding there so am not unbiased!

[cyberbub] 23/7/2014 09:10

Dcgray yes thats correct, I have assumed $3m p.a. admin costs after our new management have hopefully taken an axe to those costs...

[che7win] 23/7/2014 09:08

Dcgray, These are rough calculations, the chemical margins cover the operating costs...

[dcgray21] 23/7/2014 09:01

Che - you need to take off operating costs from gross profit when calculating your EPS projections .

[che7win] 23/7/2014 07:59

I should say, no tax for the next couple of years with our tax losses.

[cyberbub] 23/7/2014 07:48

Engelo, yes, my post 22944 was being pessimistic/conservative...

[superg1] 23/7/2014 07:01

Just a point or two noted while hunting for the SQM contract stuff.

In Q3 13 they said


Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President
The prices are today in the range of $45 to $60 this moment. We thought at the beginning of this year, demand would grow in the range of 8% to 4%, between 2% and 4%, but it became the lower range of 2%, just 2%. In the case of supply, it's not easy for us to have information because some of the companies are private companies where there's no availability of public information. We have seen that anyhow Algorta is now making publicly their information, that the volume has not increased that much. In the case of Atacama Minerals, we see a stable situation in terms of supply, a little bit increased this year of more production. I don't know exactly how much of that production are selling anyhow. We see Cosayach increasing their volumes and Bullmine too. Exactly the numbers, what -- how much more are producing, it's hard to say.


So they spotted that Algorta didn't do as much as they were claiming and know Algorta have 35 plus opex.

In the same exchange questions are asked re the delayed 665mill move

Related to the CapEx in iodine and lithium, the basic things are done. When I say the basic things are done, first environmental approvals are done. Secondly, the major, probably the very important part of that investment is already being done, that is related to water.


I'm not aware of any seawater pipeline built, so I assume they mean fresh water just like the 570 litres per second right at their current main mine.

It will be interesting to see what the water reforms consist of and whether they will bring in the 150 rule. I doubt SQM factored that in re that comment.

They call it the 'very important part'.

Chile water law reform last comment was that details will be released in early August.

[superg1] 23/7/2014 06:37

There is the exchange rate factor too, the INR lost it's 1 month recent gains v the dollar, but then the Chile peso weakened on interest rate news.

The weak Peso helps on fixed costs as iodine is paid in dollars, but a further twist in imports of which Chile is shown as one of the top 3 countries on import increases last year, which means currently it costs them more on imports.

It all seems to balance out, but fluctuations can be simply down to exchange rate changes.
Anything quoted from Chile on that site is probably Cosayach. As I recall (will dig it out if I can) SQM quoted publicly that they were looking to tie all production into long term contracts.

Not forgetting of course that SQM do derivatives via a partnership, so much of their production like IOF goes through their chemical division.

[engelo] 23/7/2014 00:36

cyber: if you're using Zauba's $37.7 iodine price, it's believed that all their figures are low. Imo $40 would be more reasonable.

Don't know if anyone has calculated likely IOF Chem profits recently, that's pretty relevant to 2014. Also a bit vague about their potential to expand. Any answers?

[cyberbub] 22/7/2014 23:50

So if by Sept we are outputting 700mt run-rate, and production costs are down to say $22, that would be $15 per kg gross profit. So that would be $10M gross profit, minus (reduced) admin costs say $7M, minus tax makes $5M or £3M. On a P/E of 15 that makes a market cap of £45M, or a little under 40p share price.

(This ignores Water, Oil, and the IOchemical plant profit... or a single penny for the IP in the IOSorb patent!)

Of course the real reason we're all invested here is when the sale price is $50, the production cost is $18, and we are producing 1000mt, the share price will be(using the same BOAFP calcs) over 140p...

No advice intended.

[engelo] 22/7/2014 20:40

che7: thanks for putting me right on getting relevant info from the Zauba site a few days ago. I completely agree that their iodine price is only useful for relative values as there is some sort of discount in their figures.

Using your selection criterion of iodine 99%, by inspection of individual trades in July the iodine price is quite flat. Using Zauba's analysis for recent months the iodine price comes out as:

May $37.79, June $37.84, July to date $37.75 .

Fwiw this contradicts IM's doom messages.

[monty panesar] 22/7/2014 20:36

TMZ featured by the BBC today. Looks like they are starting to get traction on their digital plaster which is now in use in the US and UK.



First UK hospital deploys new wearable, vital signs monitor – a "game-changer" for patient care and safety

A Brighton hospital is the first in the UK to start using a new wireless vital signs monitoring device to provide early warnings to medical staff when patients' health is suffering.



Spire Healthcare's Montefiore Hospital introduced the SensiumVitals® system at the end of May and feedback from clinicians has been strongly positive. By taking vital signs measurements every two minutes, the system allows medical staff to react swiftly to signs of patient deterioration.

SensiumVitals® is a lightweight, wireless patch which is attached to the patient's chest with sensors taking readings of heart rate, respiration and temperature. The data is then sent wirelessly to nurse stations and handheld devices. If readings exceed pre-set levels, alerts are sent to nurses who are then able to intervene immediately.

The system is designed for use in general wards and Accident & Emergency waiting areas and since the Montefiore Hospital introduced the British-designed wireless patches, they have been worn by more than 50 patients. Based on results so far, Matron Lynette Awdry believes the patch could be used as standard across all healthcare providers including the NHS.

Mrs Awdry said:

"As a nurse with 30 years' experience, I know nothing can replace the 'eyes on' assessment of a patient and direct communication about their condition. For us, the SensiumVitals® patch is a new tool which provides an extra layer of monitoring and support for patients and nurses.

"The key advantage of the system is the frequency of the data sent automatically from the patch - it keeps nurses up to date with all their patients, so they can manage their workload more effectively. As a result, they can spend time with patients who might need more immediate attention, safe in the knowledge that if there is a sudden change with another patient, they can respond immediately.

"We decided to implement the SensiumVitals® patch here at The Montefiore because exploring innovations in patient care is a key part of Spire Healthcare's culture. I would expect to see other hospitals, both private and NHS, using the patches in the near-future in a variety of clinical settings."

Oxford-based Sensium Healthcare, which designs and supplies the patches and the wireless network on which they operate, confirmed it is currently liaising with a number of NHS hospitals looking to deploy the system over the next 12 months.

Anthony Sethill, CEO of Toumaz Group, parent company of Sensium Healthcare, said:

"Our goal with SensiumVitals® is to help improve patient safety and deliver health economic benefits to hospitals.

"By taking vital signs measurements every two minutes, the system allows clinicians to react swiftly to signs of patient deterioration. This provides reassurance to both patients and staff and offers the firm prospect of improving patient outcomes and reducing the length of hospital stays.

"The system has already been described as a "game-changer" and we are very encouraged by the feedback we have received from the Montefiore Hospital in Brighton. In the coming months, we expect to introduce the system into a significant number of hospitals both in the private sector and across the NHS."

hxxp://toumaz.com/first-uk-hospital-deploys-new-wearable-vital-signs-monitor#.U85kGyiJL0s

[cyberbub] 22/7/2014 20:13

Enjoying a bit of gratuitous schadenfreude are we??

[kcowe] 22/7/2014 19:15

looks like its about to fall off a cliff... what a disaster this has turned out to be superg1 glad i bailed @ 200p ....

[gadolinium] 22/7/2014 18:41

I may be a bear on the iodine price, but if anybody wants my shares at under 50p, then to paraphrase Charlton Heston on another occasion they will have to 'prise them from my cold dead hand'!

[monkeymagic3] 22/7/2014 18:33

I can now see that the content of my post 22911 bears no relevance here.

Carry on.

[cyberbub] 22/7/2014 17:37

Let's see what progress is being made on production, July's figure should be reported in less than 2 weeks.I suppose possibly the GBP/USD exchange rate isn't helping us much?NAI

[woodpeckers] 22/7/2014 17:28

Festario, presuming you are still invested here, you are doing yourself no favours by knocking the stock. I think we invested at around the same time so I really do feel your loss. Unlike you, I have every reason to feel that we will soon be In profit.