Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[meb123] 25/7/2014 15:45

Indeed, it would make sense to bring out an RNS on something material such as IO5 and 6 comming online , if only to give the share price a boost. Question is would it be better for the share price to have individual announcements rather than having this information on the normal monthly proction disclosure. I seem to remember the water anouncement which was disastrous !

[diggulden] 25/7/2014 15:30

Never thought I would be so happy to have 50.25 on the offer. How times have changed.....

[meb123] 25/7/2014 15:25

We appeared to have broken the 50p barrier once again . If we get good news from the next RNS, maybe this is the last we see at this price. Heres hoping anyway....

[engelo] 25/7/2014 14:00

SG: with 3 degrees of separation we should be able to find the necessary links.

Appeal to US PIs:

If you are a PI holder in the US, OK preferred, or do you know someone who lives there ???

[superg1] 25/7/2014 08:37

No des fresh as far as I know no date has been set. If it has it's not showing, but I've not checked recently.

Probably a case of trying to find a vacant date when all involved are available, legal team etc.

Monty

You jest, it does get discussed.

EG a while back I had contact with a guy in one country who had contact with a drill supervisor. The feedback was a strike, but I viewed the various blogs and it was already out there on BBs, thus the consensus was it was probably false info for someone's benefit, as the rumour was around for days, share price spike but no rns.
The info turned out to be false. The places some of these wells are in are not known for reliability.

So IMO any share with a big rumour splattered everywhere and flying for days, with no rns is false. If it were true the company would have to issue an rns without delay.

In the case of IOF the plants are there for all to see if you visit, or live there.
Io5/6 up and running or not, would be blatantly obvious. Electricity crew there or not connecting io5 would be obvious.

[superg1] 25/7/2014 07:33

Another reason for not mentioning them is due to others having an interest. Often I will ask around if anyone knows much about share X etc.

Sometimes replies are 'don't mention that one It's drifting'. In other words let it drift so those interested can get in lower. Drifts tend to suggest a steady share supply etc etc.

One is drifting and has had a placing which two of us thought would happen, it's about the price we suspected it would hit, but could go lower as they are behind where they wanted to be. If they get some traction and get into an uptrend price entry point from current levels shouldn't be an issue.

I don't mind mentioning it, but prefer to enjoy my next pint with the interested guy without wondering what may have been added to the drink.

I'm sure the guy trying to sort his visit would really appreciate me posting details too so that after all his hard work he may have to pay quite a bit more for shares if he wanted them.

Then once you do mention them, questions start etc etc.

One needs work to understand their business and market better, it would still be high risk though, but on face value looks good.

I made the mistake of poking my nose into the GDL hype, and still have stalkers from there now, plus still a few left from AVN negative view days.

[superg1] 25/7/2014 06:46

Cyber

I know you do but some don't. I saw Atuk some time back, mentioned them, really liked the look of them so mentioned it. I didn't know shares were tight, and within days it had gone 50 percent up from a few having a punt, which made the situation worse.

Once the initial punts stop others cash in and it drifted but eventually went 7/8 fold in no time.

As they have gone up so strongly and move around on any small buying selling, they are at risk of spiking on any buying. Spikes have watchers reacting thinking inside info is out there etc, when it's just a bit of PI interest.

I don't like to mention anything without some decent research, plans in place re a site visit on one to fill in the knowledge gaps on their processes. Another tech guy who fully understands such tech sectors is hoping to visit too, and may have done so already. He has no time to post and best to get a view of dud or a runner from someone that knows what he is talking about.

Another recent interest took off 50 percent on not a lot of buying recently.

I have no shares in any of them.

I have mentioned one or two like obtala, but I'm happy to mention that as I know from watching it that it doesn't go completely daft on buys, so those interested can get some without huge spikes and being left high and dry. I've met that team and liked them a lot. I personally think decent news will break with them in the coming weeks (as do those lovely share prophets folk) which may translate to a break out. You never can be sure with such matters as you know so DYOR is always good advice.

[cyberbub] 24/7/2014 23:04

Why not just tell us Superg? We are old enough to do our own research on any tip...

[writz] 24/7/2014 22:39

Thanks, SG. Your thoughts are always appreciated, even when they're cryptic!

[monty panesar] 24/7/2014 21:25

Superg,

I have heard of hedge funds having spotters in Kurdistan waiting to see if flares go up if a well strikes gas or not. Maybe I should pull a sickie for the next few months and head over there myself!

Monty

[freshvoice] 24/7/2014 20:29

So tell when the hearing is please?

[superg1] 24/7/2014 20:23

Monty

That's what makes me laugh at times. Everyone goes on about some knowing things, but if you are invested in IOF and in that location, you would probably know daily what is going on re production rates and completion times, plus much more.

Anyone near the water court in Montana could get an advantage too as I would imagine the public have access at such hearings. It's generally easy to pick up which way things are going.

[superg1] 24/7/2014 19:41

There are some 'interesting' small caps about. How I love watching picks double and treble without one share held.

I had a chat the other day with someone for one that is actually about to deliver probably FUM style and it seems to have few followers as it took off recently but quickly settled down. Shares seem tight there and I don't want an Atuk mistake again. Did a 'ooooh they look under-valued' and the darn things went daft, and are still now way above the first comment.

Some may know of Ika the battery one that took off, but there is another one that the market has no clue is potentially heading that way, you can read all you like about them but there is not one reference to batteries. I am fairly confident I know who they are linked with in the sector. The linked one claims they could be commercially producing them within a year.

I haven't looked through the AIM list for a while but there are bound to be some missed 'sleepers' somewhere.


I wish I had the time to look through the ones mentioned recently.

I never worry about missing out, there is always another one somewhere.

2 of my 3 top picks early this year have 2 of them 200 to 300 percent up. I don't have one share in either, that's no problem. Double or treble of a punt is only 5 to 10 percent moves on another where the risk is considered to be less.

One share looks pretty low risk and looks to have significant upside. I know as I have always sought to get the better product of what they are doing, as do 10's of millions in the uk and the rest of the world every year. So if that company is going fire on all cylinders (looks set to) then it could be a flyer at some point.

[superg1] 24/7/2014 19:21

Darn wifi

Explained it in detail and it did wobbly lol.

So short version

C and D were never going to be able to launch until 2015. FUM told insti's but not PIs, reason being C and D are with csd2 the extended shelf life version currently awaiting it's CE mark.

8 years late on the promised launch date, so yes punters are bored. But if you check the tea leaves they suggest the first launch should happen in about 2 months, so watch out for any action pre that time, of course with Fum you can double, treble or go tenfold on timeframes.

Many are now simply waiting for the actual launch rather than the promise of it. In theory it shouldn't fly madly on launch, but many consider they will make significant revenues on the back of it. But then there may be a few old fumsters sitting and waiting to load up if they sniff the timing is right. At that point we should then find out how tight the share situation is.

No tax for a while then patent box regs should have them on low rates once the losses are wiped out.

[monty panesar] 24/7/2014 19:07

If anyone is on holiday in North West OK would be grateful if you could check out rugrats location for IO5/6 on the maps and confirm whether the purple stuff is being churned out. TIA.

[superg1] 24/7/2014 15:41

While hunting for something else I tripped over some old news. I didn't realise Atlantis re water and iodine is about more than one level, however I believe they only quantified Atlantis on the eagle level.

It turns out that in onw well they tested 3 levels, one called telegraph creek (something like that) with 70ppm and good gas levels. Bpd on water 2,700 from one well. They have 34 wells.

I do wonder why they don't exploit water via that 30k bpd discharge permit, it seems they have the stripping facility with everything in place.

Perhaps not economical or down the road potential. It could be water permit protection re applying etc.

[superg1] 24/7/2014 13:19

No idea Bog

The only details I know of from way back is that they had 100 plus sites better than Atlantis, it will be more now.

IOF also estimated that 19000 mt of commercially recoverable iodine was going down SWD's each year in OK. With all the recent drilling that number will be going up.

The key to working that out was a small print link they put in a presentation document.

There are 4 other states so far with commercial iodine which IOF are linked to. As you know no one else currently has the tech to produce at new sites in the US. Then IOF wrapped up 3rd party extraction US wide in that patent.

The only apparent way it can be done is by an operator drilling or leasing shut in wells.

Hence the Chile water laws are very important as that may force SQM and others to commit to pipeline projects earlier than they had hoped. It seems from basic info that such a move increases opex 5 to 10 dollars per kg.

That's why Algorta and Bullmine have such high costs.

A 5 dollar price hike to SQM currently means 42.5 mill extra profit.

So if a shortage comes why would SQM add 1000mt to their production. The end result would be a steady price and perhaps 15 mill extra profit. Best let the customers that abandoned them to Cosayach cheap iodine try and find some when the shortage comes.

SQM in pure profits terms would benefit by doing nothing.

That said they want their 30 percent market share back at some point, but not at any opex cost.


They will need around 2000 mt more for that but it won't be from those closed mines.

If the Japanese link up with IOF that 30 percent determination will probably crash and burn.

[bogg1e] 24/7/2014 12:08

SG cheers. Do we know the time frames from selecting a site through to have all the legals tied up? I only ask because i think the offers from companies seeking offtake agreements, when it finally sinks in that 20%+ of global iodine production is coming offline soon, will be more than Iofina can currently cover with existing sites. The sooner the sites are legally ready to go the better. Tia.

[superg1] 24/7/2014 10:52

On leases themselves there is no one else in the US doing brine leasing, so it's a choice of a lease owner to accept a new income for nothing or not (no brainer).

The going rate seems to be a 3 percent royalty as quoted on a lease blog by a lease owner,mentioning IOF.

I understand once you hit 55 percent of leases at any SWD an application can be made to cover 100 percent.

An age old system that stops nimbys disrupting it for others

[superg1] 24/7/2014 09:04

Mr B while you are enjoying the diamond picking, just as a 'not a lot of people know that' point, iodine has a hand in the classification of precious gems via methylene iodide.

If you spot any boron infested ones tell them they are junk and retain the sample.

[superg1] 24/7/2014 07:07

There is a charting thread ACT, no need to bring it here. Profile created just a few months back but apparently been at it for years. I see your other main passion is knocking mosman.

Hmmmm now who could ACT be ..... :-).

Yes Rockstar that's the mode I'm in. Material production has only just begun, but even at these levels it is material.

Current rates are near 5 percent of the world's biggest producer and that's on a spluttering stumbling start. If things go well they could be doing 10 percent of SQM production near term.

The 1000mt milestone would be near 3 percent of world production.

Bog

At the AGM it was said they have two sites with services/electric already in ready to receive pods. Pod build time 8 weeks, and potentially will be built to match supply agreements.

What the bpd is at those sites I have no idea. In the case of io2 then it would mean 4/5pods.

Personally I think pods are the way forward as they are movable and give so much more flexibility.

Re leasing I believe some sites were sorted for the io7 to 12 run.

At the AGM, Jeff in particular kept muttering on about some lucrative leases they had recently gained. I can only guess that's what the 200ppm to 1000ppm comment was about. They have pod sites of those ppm rates.

Lance also said they are very active on new leases. At the moment it's very active out there so higher ppm sites will continue to push lower options off the list.