Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[cool hand kev] 01/11/2013 23:13

Any body else think that was a shake to get PI's shares?

[dcgray21] 01/11/2013 21:15

Nice little couple of paragraphs in share magazine promoting IOF this week as part of cover story - " 6 firms ready to make a big break through "

[che7win] 01/11/2013 19:01

After hours farm-out announcement for TPL, another company I've been steadily accumulating, my second biggest holding.

[the librarian] 01/11/2013 18:11

That was a damp squib of a week all around, onwards and upwards.

[bogg1e] 01/11/2013 15:54

SG1, cheers. Interesting about Oklahoma and 1.2 billion barrels per year. Thats 2/3rds global output! Wow. Little factoids like that really help to fill out the bigger picture and underpin the long term investment argument.

[bobsworth] 01/11/2013 15:46

Thanks Superg1 your endless work is much appreciated and helps us all sleep well at night knowing our investment in Iofina is a good one.

Roll on September 2014 showing six month output from 6+ iodine plants & initial but growing water sales.

[superg1] 01/11/2013 15:23

Thanks Scrut

I pick up plenty from the research by others so it's a two way system and learning curve.

The debate over TA and other aspects investing whether some agree on certain points or not, is all very valuable knowledge and experience. I'm sure in the years ahead I will be using various bits of information picked up from the vast knowledge shared by other posters here.

If you are going to get into an enclosure with a lion, knowing your escape routes, it's capabilities, diet and instinct, is a big advantage. But those that know a lion, wouldn't go in there in the first place.

So it's case of a lot of information stored, which I have a fair degree of confidence, is accurate. I have no issue with sharing that. I have seen on many shares that a simple turn in the wrong direction, can then create dozens of posts from many, compounding the problem.


I would like to explain the 'under the radar' in far greater detail, on what I have picked up on, but I don't want to help competitors understand key points they are missing. You just don't know who reads these BB's.


There is a fine line between updating investors and protecting shareholder value. The Miss Lime boom is a big plus for IOF, but it also means it keeps throwing up information that IOF need to keep close.

The predicted cycle of the Chile producers hitting a tough patch, is now really starting to bite and has one or two producers on the ropes. The best, and most effective punches, are the ones the opponent doesn't see coming, and has no guard against.

Old presentations had IOF identifying 19k mt of iodine going down disposal wells in Oklahoma per year. I say Oklahoma, but they said in target areas, but if you checked the small print, they had a link which led to the same figures of brine (1.2 bill barrels)for just Oklahoma. I would imagine that 19k figure has gone up since that document was produced.

IOF also said they had over 100 sites available. 1.2 bill barrels per year equates to 109 30k bpd plants.

50 IOF plants in the 200 to 250 range, would take IOF past SQM on production and the capex would be roughly half of what SQM need for just a seawater pipeline, which would push up SQM opex.

So like you, I can see the value of a long running IOF, with a good chance they could be the number one producer in the coming years. I know some mocking goes on re those comments, but the fact is, the brine/iodine is there in Oklahoma and other states, and all that needs to happen is for someone to develop it to it's full potential. That takes time.

IOF as a major producer with it's low capex and low forecast opex, could literally force other producers to close down.

Sooner or later, one of the majors is going to realise the serious threat that IOF are, but also that acquiring IOF offers the chance to dominate the industry.

Time will tell, but with those iodine resources, the patents, and that business model, the US it seems could become the dominant country in the iodine sector.

[rogerbridge] 01/11/2013 14:36

Here here Scrutable.

[the fat controller] 01/11/2013 13:15

Well said, SCRUTABLE!
superg1 makes it very easy to remain invested in Iofina. His in depth knowledge, and generosity in sharing it, is very reassuring. We all have doubts about any investment, and frustrations when it doesn't perform as we anticipate, and superg1's no bullsh1t, back-to-basics approach must hearten all of us. His reiteration of the fundamentals, eg post 10463, must reassure all investors.
We know the path ahead is paved with gold, its just taking longer than we all anticipated!
Thanks superg1,
TFC

[bobbyshilling] 01/11/2013 13:12

I second that, well said SCRUTABLE.

[scrutable] 01/11/2013 13:07

superg

It is admittedly in your interest to drill down into the available data to arrive at the conclusions you have posted today, but it is noble to post it all as well. That takes additional time.

It saves all of us enormous amounts of effort, and if the others were like me they might skip it. After reading nearly everyone of your posts for 18 months or so it's long past the time I should have expressed my admiration for the clarity and detachment, as well as the sheer effort of your assessments and my gratitude, in public.

[bobbyshilling] 01/11/2013 12:44

Can't disagree with any of that Sg, nicely put.

[cpeacock] 01/11/2013 09:13

Personally I think the flow of imformation (and importantly it's quality)is reasonably good, especially when compared to most AIM listed companies. Why the fuss over the lack of thoughput data? We already have some previous figures for IO2 as a minimum starting point and we are assured of improvements. Slowly slowly catchy monkey!

[ramu kumar] 01/11/2013 09:08

Thanks Robo.

[roboben] 01/11/2013 09:06

Oops - double post. Sorry.

[roboben] 01/11/2013 09:06

Ramu - The company doesn't report quarterly. Those figures will be incorporated into the FY 2013 figures reported in April/May next year.

[ramu kumar] 01/11/2013 08:56

Does anyone know when the Jul-Sep quarter figures will be released? TIA

[superg1] 01/11/2013 08:47

Rikki

That's where I say IOF is complicated. The area in question in undergoing rapid expansion so who knows what ppms are turning up in new samples.

The key point is brine leases there are so many wells and samples now that the competition shouldn't have a clue which are the hot spots.

It is correct that the current Japanese tech can't be used for new sites anyway, so that is not an issue. Yes the patent protects the business model, but none of that secures leases.

In Texas if you have a deal with Chesapeake to extract iodine, that covers every well they have iodine in, job done.

In Oklahoma, you can have every well contracted in with every operator, but that doesn't mean you can extract iodine from them, you have to get a separate brine lease with each lease owner.

If one has the deal with Chesapeake, and another has the brine lease deal, neither can extract iodine, without the others permission or deal struck on revenue.

On the major O and G lease side, IOF pretty much have the relevant OK area sewn up. On the individual brine lease side, with land owners, it's a longer game with secrecy needed. If you declare where you have found an iodine goldmine, and spell it out, it will attract the attention of competitors in the business.

It would be very difficult for others to get access to, and find out where the best ppms are. The more difficult IOF make that, the better. They do have some sneaky actions in place to block that.


Think of Oil wells and the confidential status those can have, purely to stop competitors knowing what is going on. If they had to declare each well straight away, small oil companies would struggle to ever get off the ground as the big guns would just outbid them for surrounding leases.

In the oil industry the point would be to gain the oil prospect and produce. In the OK iodine circs, you can't produce without the contract and the landowner brine lease, the brine leases were introduced in OK due to the high iodine content and revenue from that.

Recently Iofina stated they have found Hyper ppm, levels and many sites of extremely high iodine content.

In most cases samples will come first, then brine leases. So while I'd like IOF to declare what they have, and where, it potentially puts future production locations at risk. They could drop a big hint of where the best brine is by declaring exact production for each plant, but you may note they have lumped io1 and 2 production figures together.

So all IOF are doing, is trying to protect their position, by keeping exact details back, so that the competition have no idea where the best brine is.

While they can't produce with a lease, they could hold IOF to ransom by lease grabbing.

However there are 100's of leases and many don't have good ppms, so it is a needle in a haystack scenario for the competition. So on that front, while IOF are still in lease securing mode for the new high ppm areas, why tell the competition where those leases are, by spelling it out to us in RNS releases.

[rikivilla] 01/11/2013 08:46

Spike - I assure you I received a full debrief from the presentations and I hardly consider 26,000 shares to be skin in the game - my mum has more than that!

[rogerbridge] 01/11/2013 08:44

Going back a while, IOF had been criticised for a delay when re-sighting of production facilities, although it the long term the profitability increases vastly, due to this change. The added complication of delays due to procurement of manufactured parts due to the shale boom and customs would not have helped.

There was also criticism, for slippage due to the above. It may be IOF wanted to issue an rns before the end of the month of October, to head of any more talk of slippage,(another month gone and no news) even though they would have probably wanted to wait until IO3 was purring along at maximum efficiency.

As a long term investor, I am not concerned with any of the nit picking that has been going on here.

I am invested in IOF for the long term and a considerable part of my SIPP pension and ISA's is in IOF.

We know that IO1 is running, IO2, exceeding expectations, IO3 coming on line and the remaining IO4,5 &6 in various stages of manufacture/assembly.

I am not even going to mention,helium oil and water, where on which we may have news later this year.

I am sure when IO3 is running to maximum capacity we will be informed along with any other current news that is available.

Every day, I look at the thread, but to me the management have a firm grip on the handle and I am prepared to wait for any forthcoming news.

I am not going to worry about situation that have, may or may not ever happen- life is too short.

I can understand newbies asking lots of questions, that is the correct course of action to take, if they are going to invest their hard earned cash in a company. I sure that the researchers here, in whom I have the upmost resect will answer any query or concern.

I believe that IOF is following a strategy to become a money making machine that should make us all far richer in 12 months time and even richer in 24 months time and ahead, unless we get taken out, I hope not.

That is my post for now, good luck to everyone that is invested here.

[spike_1] 01/11/2013 08:29

Rik: re your it would be nice to see Lantz put some skin in the game Lantze already has a holding (prior to becoming CEO), how do I know this - mentioned at the presentation.

[spike_1] 01/11/2013 08:12

Riki, at presentations IOF actually use the phrase 'under the radar' themselves. The presentations include a powerpoint presentation,but can you get it electronically - no, is it on their website - no.

They really don't want to give out info' they don't need to.

For two weeks after their interim's, IOF did presentations in the UK to Institutions.On the day of the interims they did a presentation specifically for PI's, giving us high priority. In fact more info' was given out at that presentation than some (all?) of the II's. Why? Because we asked the most pertinent questions.

Best wishes - Mike