Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobbyshilling] 07/11/2013 15:03

OK phoenixs, not really a point to argue over; I was going by the traded prices on the ADVFN trades at that time. You may have other info that I don't have access to, then fair enough.

[phoenixs] 07/11/2013 14:47

10732..A buy.

[crosseyed] 07/11/2013 14:45

superg1,I have been looking at the Annual Reports regarding revenues and cost of sales (as broken down in Note 5).I observe the following:20132012$M% of Rev$M% of RevRevenues18,64316,106Costs:Raw Mtls12,95069.5%12,28076.2%Freight2051.1%3141.9%Sale comm960.5%510.3%Labour+mftg o/h1,89310.2%1,0756.7%Total 15,14481.2%13,72085.2%What I do not understand is where your figure of $15/kg for OpEx comes from.I take it that:Revenues are solely derived from sales of iodine or iodine-based products;Raw Materials relates to the cost of brine;Labour and Manufacturing Overheads relate to direct costs in the extraction and manufacturing processes.Those figures imply that the direct cost of manufacture had reduced to 81% of revenues by 2013. At,say, $50/kg sales value, that would imply just over $40/kg in direct costs.c

[bobbyshilling] 07/11/2013 14:41

Probably a sell, look at the time of the trade.

[phoenixs] 07/11/2013 13:55

...and that 40k is a buy

[festario] 07/11/2013 13:09

Riki, I don't think you quite grasped the context that SG meant that statement.

I believe he means that it is not a poor business plan that would ruin a share price, rather it would be the behaviour of certain shareholders that would cause volatility along the way.

[phoenixs] 07/11/2013 11:21

patience is what is required, the building of a successful business takes time and I would rather it took a little longer than to screw it up by rushing new build, production etc.

[the librarian] 07/11/2013 11:16

I'm hopeful that the water update will be in the near future, then we have the wait for any objections, hopefully by christmas. Can't help but feel that it would have happened so much sooner had they gone for the rights swap instead and complicated it and slowed it down with a 'new' application.

However, the activity in the area has increased somewhat so there could be a significant amount of interest in that particular depot.

[phoenixs] 07/11/2013 11:06

sp a bit disappointing but gave me an opportunity to top up holding. In the larger scheme of things, the next 6 weeks or so should result in positive updates on production, commissioning of IOF4 and maybe even the confirmation of the water license. Then we shall see what happens to the share price as IOF are shown to have proven themselves.

[neddo] 07/11/2013 10:37

not happy with the s/p?

[bogg1e] 07/11/2013 09:51

Che, Interestingly enough, last time i checked vectorvest actually has IOF valued at 320p or thereabouts. One of the reasons I'm happy to hold.

[che7win] 07/11/2013 09:31

N3tleyLucas 7 Nov'13 - 00:37 - 10702 of 10707 1 0

"Che has done some nice work in the past to show that EPS"

Thank you for repeating the compliment N3tley.

You, by contrast have done nothing useful on this thread, you did however show how two-faced you are on your TUNG thread. Talk about calling a kettle black.

I noted the following post below and apply your own valuation to IOF. So you value businesses on P/E two years out.

Going by your calculations, IOF is worth 320p right now.
You have been well and truly found out!


"N3tleyLucas 22 Oct'13 - 13:03 - 25 of 59 0 0

It's easy to value mate, 100m x share price .. you mean judge it against peers and the general market?

Now that's tricky, no broker or company est's yet. My rule of thumb is MV/10 = pre-tax 2 years out = about right. So £23m FY 2015, more and it's cheap, less dear.

Of course that's my blunt measure of good/bad value... there are certainly more refined ways. "

[rogerbridge] 07/11/2013 09:25

I love that last line SG, it's a gem: "It's not the business plan that worries me, it's the invstors".
Back to work.

[phoenixs] 07/11/2013 09:24

sg, couldn't agree more and took the opportunity to buy this morning.

[wizard2020] 07/11/2013 09:17

Thanks superg. This board alternates between adult informed comment and the rants of the children - it has been sad over the last few days to see the children come back - hopefully when half term comes to an end they will go back to their playground. Any fall in the share price, IMHO, gives the grown ups a chance to increase their long term profits

[superg1] 07/11/2013 09:12

M1das

Thanks

By far the vast majority on the BB's are full of you know what, so anyone that posts positively or negatively will be seen as a potential liar out for their own gains, ans that is by far the best way to approach any BB.

Apparent 'friends' in the city screw each other over all the time, but equally there are honest down to earth guys among them.

I doubt honesty and integrity is the key point for many in the city in the cut and thrust of trading. But equally there will be a selection of great guys in among them.


If I hadn't posted about IOF at any point, I could have probably made many multiples of what I have, just in this share. That bothers me not.

To a cut-throat trader, they would want to load up and then drop the big surprise on the market, then get the hell out.

If it didn't go their way, you don't post, but just drop this rumour you heard in the right places, then gtf out when the numpty herd flies in and gets left high and dry. It happens every day without fail.

So for those posting asking 'why the drop'?.

One line in an rns gave the fuel, then some posters hung their dirty washing on the line here, so we all know what will happen next and it did. Bids come off knowing what will happen next, shorts move it knowing the same.

That line isn't the issue some think, we've said it a few times now and not just me, some have replies from IOF on it.

This investing business is a strange old place. I'm a long term holder end of, and will build, as and when I see fit.

As posted in recent times, it's not the business plan that worries me in any share, it's the investors.

[rogerbridge] 07/11/2013 09:12

I agree with you on many points SG. Long term prospects in UK and Europe do not look good to me and I think that we have had our day.
The European banking system is still rocky and at sometime in the future, maybe 2 years, investors may stop buying US bonds from a bankrupt country.
We have a mini boom based on funny money and one where savers miss out due to low interest rates, to keep the banks afloat.
Hard assets will win the day and the world will need increasing amounts of food and as you say Water.
IOF falls into that catergory, so do OBT and HAWK. I can see commodities making a comeback as intrest rates rise.
My largest concern is that when events do turn sour, small caps usually take a hammering, before rising quickly again as they will, providing you are in the right stocks.
I have taken a small position in OBT and will drip feed over the next 12 months.

[rogerbridge] 07/11/2013 08:59

Well said SG, we have all seen takers that win at least in the short term, in business I have found that generousity and integrity counts in the long term. Business is about people, I have many friends and I enjoy good relationships with both customers and suppliers, even though there are always tough negotiations. I also know if I am in a tight spot, I have people I can count on.
There are som sad people out there.

[jagsta386] 07/11/2013 08:51

Seems to be a nice bounce at 1.50's. thanks CK indeed nice top up of 30k shares. :-) at 160

[leeming] 07/11/2013 08:42

Bid bit firmer now.....nice little tussle.

[brhukatee] 07/11/2013 08:39

If Ennismore are going to town, I wouldn't be topping up here as I think they need it to fall much further? A really well timed attack, the cynic in me says too well timed? Based on todays action so far I think we might see a double digit drop come the days end? All complete guesswork on my part.

[m1das_touch] 07/11/2013 08:38

superg1 - thanks for your honest and insightful posts about underlying reasons for trading / investing. Found your comments a breath of fresh air, particularly compared to so much of the rubbish posted on BBs.