Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 03/10/2013 10:06

Canalet, one of the reasons i bought into IOF is cos vectorvest has a high value calculated for IOF. Sadly though i have cancelled my vectorvest subscription cos it f~cks up so often, half the time I cant access it and last time i eventually got in all my watchlists had been deleted. Also im mostly into long term holdings at the moment, but when it worked and i was solely trading it was very useful.

[dnair28] 03/10/2013 10:02

Pending, KRIII!

[king_roster_iii] 03/10/2013 09:40

it's immi......... no sorry, I can't say it

[superg1] 03/10/2013 09:29

Meadow

I can only say what is being said. I care not about head above the parapet.

Do you recall all the work pre interims, what happened ?

Did I not get busy on commenting last week that the permit may show as correct shortly.

So I'll stick with what I've said and know where to look to see if it happens.

[meadow2] 03/10/2013 08:58

Careful, SG, the pedants will hold you to 'very near term' and have a ball arguing semantics!

[superg1] 03/10/2013 08:08

Pc

I asked re that one a while back. The oil caused a few days shut down to clean up, but it had been running for over a week with plenty of oil coming through.

I understand they can now clean up in one day re excessive oil.

However that issue identified a problem upstream for midstates showing their skimming kit was failing. So that just demonstrates how useful an io final warning system works.

On another point, that water permit 'prelim determination to grant'

That could take weeks, it could take a couple of months, but the rumbling in the background suggests it's very close.

They may update the Montana site re that, perhaps they won't as the whole world knows we view that.

However there is one place I can look that can't be avoided, it has to be listed. :-)

Could be weeks, could be months, but right now I favour near term.


EDIT

I should have put 'very near term', we'll just have to wait and see.

[pcjoe] 03/10/2013 07:29

SG - Good point re the oil - If I remember right IO2 was flooded with oil on one occasion early on & coped with it admirably although I believe that some iodine production time was lost - IMO IOF should keep any oil recovered becauause of any hassle factor although at the end of the day its all about relationship building & excess oil heading towards the SWD should be reported when it occurs - a balance to be struck on this one

[canalet3] 03/10/2013 07:26

I do not remember seeing anybody mention Vector Vest on here, there are obvious reasons I guess, however at the moment they like us , current net worth 320.68. All helps to reassure us mere mortals.

[naphar] 02/10/2013 20:10

engelo, thanks

[engelo] 02/10/2013 19:47

SG, croc8, madchick: thanks! So afaict

I03 tower is Titanium and must be same size as I02.

I04,5,6 will use the (last?) Ti tower and the first 2 FRP towers currently on order (from separate suppliers).

Believe I07 and 8 have been recently stated as I02 alikes and will also use FRP.

I09 onwards allows time for new designs which might incorporate larger towers.

edit: naphar: Believe IOF originally thought that the pad design would be different for Ti and FRP towers but have since decided the same design will work for both types, so interchangeable.

[naphar] 02/10/2013 19:35

Croc, Am I right in thinking that the Ti tower for the plant after IO3, will go to a specific site that has been built for a Ti tower, they just don't know which number it will be assigned yet? Hence your comment "Whether that goes on IO4 or IO5 has yet to be decided"? I am assuming it has to go to the physical site where it was designed to go.

[nevmyers] 02/10/2013 19:11

is FRP fibreglass why don't they make em out of carbon !!

EDIT

Its ok I answered my own question the fibre can be carbon among other stuff, lets hope it is carbon

[croc8] 02/10/2013 18:48

Evening. It is titanium for IO3, and there is another titanium tank on its way. Whether that goes on IO4 or IO5 has yet to be decided, as SG alluded to earlier. From then onwards they will FRP.

[madchick] 02/10/2013 18:40

I think engelo's question was: are the towers at IO.3 FRP or titanium?

I'm not sure whether the answer is:

a) We don't know
b) Don't worry, we still won't know how many bpd it could handle whichever it was and FRP won't necessarily be able to handle more bpd than titanium
c) Both of the above

Apologies if I'm just not seeing it :-)

[superg1] 02/10/2013 16:20

Engelo

Titanium comes from overseas and the shipping containers restrict the tower diameter to 2m.

With FRP US sourced the range is 2.19m to 4m.

That was the figure in a presentation.

Using a volumes calculator 2.19m to 4m gives a volume max range of 35kbpd to 120k bpd.

Having said that the 2m towers are designed for 30k bpd, that doesn't mean they can't handle more.

There will be a volume limit which may not mean optimal yields. So somewhere along the line they will know what the max io2 can take without skewing yields etc.

I got the impression that io2 will handle slightly more than 30k bpd. For the rest depending on what level of BPD is maintained. They could add a pod on site, or another plant.

We shouldn't however get hung up on io3 4, 5 or 6 site completion times re specific sites.

The builds are close together on timelines, so io4, 5 etc will simply get their numbers as and when the next in the sequence is built.

That's why they can't say 20k bpd at io5 at X ppm rate, as if that site lags io6 in build time, for whatever reason, io5 then becomes io6, and io6 becomes io5.

The next plant complete gets the next number. IO3 will probably keep it's number, but at a later date I'll point something out to show how things are missed in rns reports.

[dnair28] 02/10/2013 16:20

It is not a duplicate RNS, the previous one contained a glaring error.

[crazycoops] 02/10/2013 16:04

engelo,

I'm not 100% on the design but I am pretty sure FRP units can take in and process more brine than the titanium ones. From last week's presentation, CF did say that all IO plants will have [significantly] different brine input (bpd) and different iodine concentration (ppm) but one thing to be sure of is that they will all be nice little earners.

The reason I mention the above (and I appreciate it might not be where you were headed with your question) is that we cannot assume a homogenous model when making calculations of forward earnings from the IO plants.

[engelo] 02/10/2013 15:43

SG; would you look back to my q in 9461 pl? Confused about the towers and probably a simple answer. tia

[superg1] 02/10/2013 15:36

che

How long to the water permit grant ?

The next step is the 'preliminary determination to grant' which kicks off the 45 day rule to the official award of the permit.

Talk of revenue next year maybe Q2, but then CF said 3 months to build post permit given. so there is a nice buffer time period between now and the end of the year.

that's gives until mid November for the 45 day rule.

Who knows, it could be mid next week.

Not if you are a bear of course, as the water side is a complete red herring.

[che7win] 02/10/2013 15:04

In fairness to the market,
We need ongoing progress to justify the markets forward expectations on profits. That is why any slip up in timelines will be punished.

If/when we exceed output on current expectations for IO#2 IO#3, then the market will price this in.
Personally, I think the market is pricing in 1000mt over the next year at $30kg. Thats why any upgrade in IO#3 volumes would be significant to me.

Likewise, the market will start to price in water revenue when we have the licence granted which it isn't doing at this price.

I'm quite comfortable in my shareholding at this price, especially with brokers being conservative.

[superg1] 02/10/2013 15:02

Warren

Clearly a supply of some type but without a supply you have no market and could have bought a lot higher. The same goes re shorts, they create a supply.

At the end of the day, the business plan is all that matters and delivery of it. Not what any fund short or long is doing. Funds get it wrong probably more often than a careful PI, simply because we can much more time and effort into picking shares.

They have targets and if selling share x gets them that target, then share x will get sold, regardless of how good the prospects are for that individual share.

Note BR recently, it's mentioned on many shares that a fund of theirs has closed, and so all shares in that fund will be sold. I wish I knew what they all are, as I'd be watching for the lows and buy once I thought the overhang had gone.

'Oh hang on a minute, I do know one', so I bought some.

[bogg1e] 02/10/2013 15:00

Edit - sorry already posted above.

[warrensearle] 02/10/2013 14:58

Maybe they put this out in error instead of the Io3 commissioned one :)

[croc8] 02/10/2013 14:55

That is a bit odd...