Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 18/7/2023 17:12

MM's at work, avoid!

[beercapafn] 18/7/2023 15:32

I dont understand what that last trade was about. Please.

[beercapafn] 18/7/2023 14:54

Would someone please explain the 2p spread on the Share Price?

I just don't understand. Thankyou.

[chillpill] 18/7/2023 07:39

Usually it is Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Often it is about having the analyst having his research note completed and ready to go for the 7am RNS.

[fft] 18/7/2023 07:18

Surprised not to have had a production update yesterday or today. My only hope is that, as requested, they are taking more time because they will be providing some financial info as well. I can hope .....

[beercapafn] 17/7/2023 15:34

Buys indicate positive news very soon.

About time. Hope it is in two bights.

1. Production update.
2. Then progress report on IO9.

[serratia] 17/7/2023 10:58

Nothing exciting here, just posting for completion. June price stays at $70. Cumulative Chile export rate to June 19129 tpa vs 2022 19149 for the whole year.
The 5k tpa line I follow into europe shows imports from Chile at 1865 t to June up from 1564 last year. As exports are flat some other part of the world must be down 300 t.

[pjl4] 17/7/2023 10:48

Oh! what has happened. 'Insights' already of an up and coming RNS?

[chillpill] 14/7/2023 09:11

Going back 10 years 90%+ of the time the production update comes between the 15th and 22nd of the month so almost certainly next week.

[activmojo] 14/7/2023 08:53

H1 update next week is my guess. Apart from that, July and August usually quiet months for news flow. 🤞

[beercapafn] 14/7/2023 08:40

Qwenga: Aggre.

News. we need some positive news to stop this share price from slipping down.

[owenga] 14/7/2023 08:34

Surprised we haven't had quarterly update yet?

[severnof9] 10/7/2023 20:56

Read this today in the guardian. It is an interview with Chile’s new environment minister on reconciling green goals and the realities of government, and why she wants her developing country to be a global climate pioneer

The renowned climate scientist Maisa Rojas



This part is relevant the question put was


Chile’s economy has long depended on mining. How do you change that extractive mindset and balance it with the needs of biodiversity? I guess there must be times when the president says to you: “Go easy on that, we need the money”?

The answer was

Yes, that is the most complicated part. That is where things become muddy. These are really the tough questions. To demonstrate that we can do both – develop the economy while taking care of our environment – at the necessary velocity. That is really the challenge.

In the case of mining, we need a common understanding of what needs to be done. We have had conversations about sustainable mining and green mining. And I have said I prefer not to talk in those terms, which sound like greenwashing because mining is never sustainable. We need to talk about responsible mining. We know mining has important, irreversible impacts on nature. We need a broad agreement about what impacts we are willing to take – and to be responsible about that.

In my view extracting precious water that damage locaL INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES WILL NOT BE ACCEPTABLE.

That augers well for Iodine prices being maintained at current levels

[giggleswickian] 09/7/2023 11:38

One key question would be whether they have pre~ordered the machinery. I think the plant was ready to be installed on day one of the IO9 contract, or was it IO8, I forget. If they have not got this covered the next site will take longer to get up and running.

[chillpill] 08/7/2023 22:20

Right now it doesn’t matter too much whether a new plant build starts now or in September as it would come online in Q1 next year which is always much lower production.

You just have to trust the BoD to do the right thing. They aren’t stupid.

[activmojo] 08/7/2023 13:54

Getting the new plant contracts signed appears to be problematic due to the partners seeing the financial rewards low priority. IO9 was a year behind expectations and IO10 is looking unlikely to be completed this year. Maybe the contract agreement and signing could be incentivesed with with one, two or more years licence payment up front. It would raise that signing amount to a more significant number an focus minds, and relatively simple to calculate. Every month laate is costing approx 10,000 kilos. Any other ideas?

[chillpill] 08/7/2023 10:45

In the interview 3 weeks ago TB said H1 had largely gone to plan. CC have sales of 550t for this year. H1 usually sees the highest sales so could be up near 300t. They had high inventory running into 2023 so I expect they have had a very decent H1.

Happy to wait to September to find out although if they know they will materially exceed market forecasts they will rns- that could happen anytime this quarter imo.

[fft] 08/7/2023 10:32

In previous H1 updates, IOF only mention production data, and have never mentioned how many tons have actually been sold or chemical/iodine revenue. This has led to disappointment when the actual figures come out in a few months time as there has been an inventory build up or some other issue. As a result, any figures for EBITDA, revenue, profit, cash given here are unfortunately just guesses. If anyone can persuade IOF to provide revenue/EBITDA figures in this H1 update that would be great.

[chillpill] 07/7/2023 21:39

Analysts have EBITDA for this year at $11.7m.

EBITDA in H2 last year was $7.8m. EBITDA for H1 should be well above $8m.

EBITDA could get up towards $19m for the year according to CC if the iodine price holds.

[serratia] 07/7/2023 17:59

There are a few things to consider in the figures I receive.

Exports -

Firstly I have just picked in the June exports for the half year for export tons / value. This doesn't equate totally to production as exports can be out of stock and production into stock. As far as exports go the half year run rate for 2023 is 19,134 tpa. For 2022 at the half year the rate was 18,782 t with the year ending up at 19,149 t. Exports are therefore so far exactly the same as last years rate. Monthly export rates vary a lot from month to month. This year the range is 1200 - 2100t. so I tend to look at the anualised rate when we finish H1.
I can go back a number of years but recent exports were - 2018, 18,131 t, 2019 19,051, 2020 18,319, 2021 16,232, 2022 19149. A possible explanation for 20/21 is a reduced demand re covid. Production could then have moved any excess into stock. SQM produced into stock in 2020 but a production drop in 2021 resulted in a stock drop.

Production -

I get the figures for 85% of Chilean production. This is around 16,000 tpa. Based on the first 5 months 2020 1204 tpm, 2021 1081 tpm, 2022 1496 tpm, 2023 1296 tpm. There's the drop from last year to May but up slightly from 20/21.

Prices - Still holding $70/kg each month this year and both IOF and SQM see the same going forward. I don't see why brokers predict a price drop unless it's to give them scope for upgrades. Prices fall when supply exceeds demand and that still looks tight. Even if SQM can up their production rate by 1k tpa sometime this year that will barely match the market growth.

[hopefullamateur1] 07/7/2023 13:49

Seems like the iodine price might tighten then? I guess there must be a few in doubt though (or shorting?) given today's selling action...

[beercapafn] 07/7/2023 08:17

Serratia: that's a lot in tons, right?

[serratia] 06/7/2023 15:33

Small update -

Chile production tons figures to May are at 87% of 2022 year to May.