Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 24/7/2013 12:51

Agree B, a stream of bad news is sure to deter predators.

[superg1] 24/7/2013 12:49

For now I'm just interested in the OK roll out. Just months back it looked like some of the early plants may go to Texas. I know form early research there are some 200 to 250ppm sites there.
However the hot sector for ppm is OK and I expect quite a number of plants to be in the 300 to 500 ppm range.

They have proved the yield capability beyond the 90% I use. The tech works, all they need is decent brine levels.

The SWD data, partner websites, and presentations, suggest there will be more than enough going to SWD sites, where IOF plants will be located.

Io2 will be getting it's 30k bpd at some point, and it was said there is more than 20k bpd going to the io3 site with more to arrive, before they started the build.

This time however the staff are already trained and ready to go waiting for the io3 completion. That was impossible pre io1 for obvious reasons. Io2 is a different set up, so no doubt that's where io3 staff currently are.

[bogg1e] 24/7/2013 12:42

Going on the previous consensus, i would have to say that they will underplay everything until the accounts are released in september, when they cant hide their profit margins anymore. As we know the longer they stay under the radar the longer they avoid an early takeover, so dont push them too hard for info when updates on operations are likely to be released with the accounts anyway.

[engelo] 24/7/2013 12:34

SG (5587) Exactamento :-)

[superg1] 24/7/2013 12:28

ramu

Exactly the point I, and 25 plus others raised.

A bit of an assumption of if they are achieving what they said at the AGM then there is no need to release it.

However with IOF at such a critical point in transformation, it's highly relevant that they demonstrate performance for some investors.

While I prefer performance now, and in a timely fashion, to me it doesn't really matter at what point io3 to 6 appear, as long as there are no exceptional undue delays.

The point being I have no intent to sell post io4, 6, or 12. So why would I worry about whether io7 is next Feb or next July. The problem would only come if they are 100mt units, but all the evidence suggest they are multiples of that.

On top of that there are some free carries of water supply and disposal, Oil ( a few options there, True Oil's find, Nisku, 3 forks and exshaw), gas-Niobara. Helium.

IOF know what they have and what's coming, but they tend to forget, that presentations and AGM's are not official updates.

[engelo] 24/7/2013 12:24

SG: Re water permit agree that revenues are next year... but for my money grant of the permit would add significant value to IOF right now at least equivalent to 2014 projected earnings applicable :-) Perhaps more important it establishes credibility for the whole water business which imo is not understood or priced in at all either by brokers or the market.

edit1: you did say this in your post: apols!

edit2: well covered in the header: double apols!

Also once the first permit is achieved (all right I know it's only 99%) IOF can then proceed immediately to apply for the second and third permits with a high chance of these being granted too. All in all a value booster with next to zero capital expenditure. Winning strategy imo whether they sell the water business or not!

[ramu kumar] 24/7/2013 12:17

che, it appears that they are really quick with 'negative' updates and tend to drag their heels with good news.

Not sure of any progress with PR appointment but company in dire need of one with CF just doing the opposite!

[che7win] 24/7/2013 11:38

Thanks superg,
It will be good to hear news, at this stage of the growth phase it's important to keep the market informed.

[superg1] 24/7/2013 11:37

Che

I had one, hence my carefully worded post.

I suspect they will update via the official system, which will cover issue raised re the current position.

Things are going well as far as I know.

[che7win] 24/7/2013 11:31

Superg,
I agree, I think water is non core, it should be a JV going forward but not priced in.

I sent an email yesterday to [e-mail], no reply but I've never got a reply.

[bogg1e] 24/7/2013 11:29

SG1 cheers.

[superg1] 24/7/2013 11:25

Engelo

IOF are reluctant to release details in direct comms, they will do that via updates which I believe are near term.

All we need to look at near term is progress re io1/2 and the roll out.

They said water revenue will come next year at the AGM, so it doesn't really matter if the permit comes next week, next month or later. They won't build a depot in the Montana winter, the weather is brutal.

However I'm sticking with the thought that the water side will go post permit, could be an enhanced JV though, compared to the last one. I suppose the one issue on that, ignoring when revenues come, is that the issue of the permit, could mean an upgrade TP's in buy notes. Water has not been valued anywhere at the moment.

[superg1] 24/7/2013 11:14

Kcowe

Sorry to be OT but PLE is one I don't actually like as I think the product will be a complete failure re interest over time. The reason being is it's, using a method of treatment that is similar to OTC products anyway. Those OTC products have prilocaine as their main active ingredient.

It looks like Boots have recently stopped stocking the OTC version, I presume because it doesn't sell very well.

I'm pro re FUM, but they have a similar product to go on sale in the US, I have always been negative about that product and now FUM/Ansell, surprise surprise, are finding it difficult to get retail interest in the US, or any retail interest at all.

The PLE investors did seem oblivious to OTC similar products already on sale in the EU and US.

So the PLE hype is all about a ground breaking product that has been available OTC for some time.

Their product is prescription only and due to get EU approval soon, hence the recent surge in the price.
It's simply a numbing spray/gel, that OTC products claim to do anyway.

It's just my logic, but I can't see why sufferers with PE would rush off to the Dr to get a prescription version, when they can get an OTC version online for the same price or less.
There is the case that they may think a prescription version is more effective. I assume sufferers have tried things before and will be well aware of numbing sprays/gels.

It could do well, but my logic suggests not. So it should have a surge in the price in the build to news and maybe beyond as momentum gains, with tips a nd hype etc.

At the end of the day, down the line, I think they won't get too much interest in the product and that is all the company have.

I may be wrong of course. I have never bought or sold any. I don't chase momentum shares, but go for fundamentals from a long term investment viewpoint.

I know EK/SC tipped them a while back. My view is the product itself not the likely investor interest, which was always going to be strong in the build to EU approval.

[engelo] 24/7/2013 11:01

noli (5409) re water permit: pleased that you are on the case :-)

IOF evidently reluctant to release any info atm, but if and when the permit comes through it's outside their control, and will compel an RNS too.

This may in fact suit IOF as it's the iodine progress that they want to keep low key imo.

A bit surreal that I01,2,3,4 progress, patent, CEO and water permit should all be on the boil at the same time.

[kcowe] 24/7/2013 09:26

nice call on ple superg1 .... up over 100% since your last comments

[scrutable] 24/7/2013 08:22

to be revised -sorry

[superg1] 24/7/2013 08:12

Boggle

That's why I get a little frustrated re the competition radar bit, but I can see their point.

Many lease sections are not even in the name of the owners, as I have found out while researching leases for Iofina in Montana.

So even if Company A wanted to go for leases in OK, then there would be 1000's of them, and not necessarily in the name of the current owner.

IOF have the advantage that the oil partners have done all that work, it would be a tough task otherwise.

Then anyone looking wouldn't have a clue where the best ppm is. As IOF said one area can be high and other area's nothing. The suggestion is after 6 years IOF have worked out why that is. No-one else has.

No one else has 1000's of samples, that would take a considerable time. However most companies are tied in anyway so where would they go for samples.

Having done that you have the brine lease lawyers and there are not many of them as brine leases don't exist for 95% of the states.

As IOF are with a few it scuppers interest from others, due to the conflict of interest scenario.

There has been a brine lease forum on one site in OK that I have been following. Reading between the lines it seems Iochem have been telling locals porkies about their entitlements, with locals struggling to ID lawyers that understand the process.

[bogg1e] 23/7/2013 22:39

SG1 thanks for clarification re licences. Very encouraging to know. I recall you mentioning that they appear to be on good terms with partners, returning unskimmed oil etc, so looking good all round. Cheers.

[che7win] 23/7/2013 22:29

Superg,
The individual expectation per plant is one matter, I have not recalibrated to a level much higher than 300MT.

On another level, I always expected the rollout would need hard graft, in one sense it has been and on another the rollout should be quicker with homogenised plants going forward.

I take your point, but the individual output is one part of the value equation; on track and forecastable rollout of plants is another.

If the market has confidence in the ability of the company to rollout plants quickly, then the share price will respond swiftly upwards from here IMHO.

Its an issue of confidence.

[superg1] 23/7/2013 22:07

Che

It all depends what individual expectation for plants is, not how many. If io2 are running at 30k bpd, it should be a whole lot different to what many consider would be good production.

Eg. if some hope for 250mt per plant as an average ion 30k bpd then the plants won't need to nbe at full capacity to meet that.

Interesting that Sam, at some point decided to retweet a comment by another, re what they think plants can do.

[n3tleylucas] 23/7/2013 22:01

You're bang on the mark Stoke, but this is only starting its retrace, that stage, you know, before the 80% tank from 250 ... to 50. Then it's in the club. Full member then Stoke.

[che7win] 23/7/2013 21:28

We have a blockbuster company in the making here with a captive supplier, it will be nice to have the remaining leases tied up to increase our moat.

High barriers to entry will ensure a nice takeout for shareholders in due time.

IOF need to work hard to ensure they have at least 5 plants commissioned by year end, any news on that front will steady the share.

[superg1] 23/7/2013 21:04

Boggle

Two states in the US require brine leases, Montana and OK

E.G. In Texas if IOF have a deal with Chesa that's all that is needed to extract iodine from the produced brine.

so in an OK if you do a deal with Chesa, then you also have to do deals with each individual land owener due to the iodine content, ' a brine lease'.

Iochem, the Japanese plant did some in the 80's and p'd all the locals off but having them over, so they are not popular.

from 1987



But now they have a nice US company called Iofina that offer them royalties.

That's why any competition for the area is a non starter, you can't extract iodine unless you have the partner deal and the brine lease.

IOF have deals with most of the big players which hold millions of acres in the key area's.

besides that no-one has viable tech to produce any anyway

[pwcarnall] 23/7/2013 20:53

Blvn ,xel,gkp,iofina only the name has been changed-the sentiments remain exactly the same!

[joeywald] 23/7/2013 19:32

SG

Thanks for the info. Let's see what transpires.