Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[festario] 19/12/2014 17:46

That makes Fester, Festive!

[festario] 19/12/2014 17:21

Monkey Magic.... I think you should treat ADVFN readers to some of your famous, IOF themed 'Xmas Carols'

[bobbyshilling] 19/12/2014 16:54

Yes, that sounds right SG. I was thinking 7 plus 15, but I think that your assumption about another 7 after the 15 as well, is likely.

[superg1] 19/12/2014 16:41

Just so you can see what I'm seeing when I work out the dates.

'THIS FORM MUST BE RECEIVED OR POSTMARKED ON OR BEFORE THE DEADLINE SPECIFIED IN THE PUBLIC NOTICE.'

Internal guidelines

'No Objection Received • Wait 7 days after obj. deadline'`

The 7 days is all to do with the postmark rule. The postmark rule also applies to deficiency letters which have to be replied to within 15 days or have a postmark within those 15 days.

So it is safe to assume they apply the 7 day rule to the 15 day period, to cover late post (especially over xmas).

[superg1] 19/12/2014 16:17

I finally found the line I was looking for when considering whether points are valid or not.

As you know I don't think any point can be challenged other than beneficial use.

'Did the objector provide facts indicating why the applicant's use cannot be considered beneficial or that the flow and volume requested is not reasonable?'

So strictly speaking one might consider the Culbertson guy has provided facts,but they underline the word facts.

What I don't know is if they check the facts. I doubt they do, but they are not facts as mentioned in various posts.

That is the only point I currently see as coming out of the objections, However we won't know the outcome for at least 10 days plus. The most likely time we would get an update from IOF based on the bureau flow charts re timelines and postmarks would be the start of January. By that time I would expect an iodine production update too.

I'm very confident about my timelines.

[superg1] 19/12/2014 11:02

If it helps I fully expect the last quarter to be good production and in line.

I also fully expect the water permit to be awarded whether any points are valid or not, hearing or not.

It always does well to check over the archives. I keep saying groundwater from aquifers is not sustainable. Halliburton have that in a report somewhere too but I still haven't found the darn thing.

But details from ND on the Fox Hill aquifer which is the one many Montana depots draw water from.

This was from 2012

'Current trend in rate of pressure head decline is a major concern'

'Water permits issued – 85 (73 groundwater, 12 surface water)' ND

As of 2012 re those emergency laws irrigation permits to industrial use, they are temporary and still in use.

'Allocated 4,894 acre-feet (1.6 billion gallons:6.0 billion liters) under this program in 2012.'

SWC Temporary Water Permits from Surface Water Ponds and Sloughs

'Allocated 13,943.9 acre-feet (4.5 billion gallons:17.2 billion liters) under this program in 2012'

'We are not depleting aquifers in western North Dakota to provide water for oil field applications'

That particular aquifer has been declining at 1.2 feet per year for the last 30 years, they have to protect it.


The bakken drilling will be around for 25 years, maintenance water alone will hit 10 billion gallons per year as the area develops, which is 3 times what they forecast would be used last year.

Now it seems slickwater is preferred and if that takes off as they suggest then they can throw the water use predictions out of the window and start again.

[bogg1e] 19/12/2014 10:50

fair play ridicule, but it wouldnt be much in comparison to what the water permit news would do to the share price cos its a whole new revenue stream, then another rise when we hear about the JV, then another rise when we find out what the roll out plan is. Hitting 350 tonnes might add 10p to the sp, the above however would multibag.

[ridicule] 19/12/2014 10:26

SuperG Investors closing shorts adds to my observation that those selling long T20s on expiry or, anyone selling at all at this share price level, must be forced sellers. Logic dictates holding until the year end update and water news.

Boggle, I normally agree with you, but your excellent earlier analysis of IOF highlights why the current share price is way too low. Hence, even if they just confirm iodine production is in line with forecasts, I would still expect the share price to move up regardless of the water announcement.

[bogg1e] 19/12/2014 10:16

cyber, I could be wrong but i am assuming that the production update will be given along with reults from the water hearing. We know that they are on target, so good news on production is only "in line" and probably wont do much to the share price However Halliburton paying say $25 mil shud do wonders for the bank sheet, the share price and ultimately enables Lance to continue the roll out. This has been fasinating me for ages. We lame the previous management for thier decisions, but we dont know what Lance would have done exactly, so im very interested in the routes he plans to take. 2 more full scale plants and 6 minis to start with imo; enough to cover IOC expansion and guarantee offtake agreements as well as getting us well over the 1000 tonne per year mark, even if IO1-6 take another 6 months to get up to full speed.

[superg1] 19/12/2014 10:13

Here is another interesting one from Goldman



“Costs are falling nearly as fast as the price, which means oil producers can spend less to get the same or potentially even more in terms of production,” the bank said. “While reductions in capex are coming faster than expected, it is unlikely to translate into less supply” it said, adding that drill-rig rates have dropped as much as 20 percent.

While data from Baker Hughes Inc. shows U.S. producers idled the most rigs in two years last week, this count was almost entirely for vertical machines, not the horizontal drillers used for shale output, according to Goldman.

'explorers can drill new wells profitably in some areas even if crude falls to $25 a barrel, according to ITG Investment Research Inc.'

[superg1] 19/12/2014 09:22

The short chart link is on the finances thread.

You will see they have been closing recently not opening shorts.

[ridicule] 19/12/2014 09:18

Cyber. As you say, with 10 trading days to go until the annual update, that could come at anytime if they have good production visibility, it seems amazing to see sells this AM. It must surely be T20 traders running out of time on uncovered margin. I cannot see of any other reason to sell now at the current price.

I have been taking out (covered) T20 buys over the past few days with the option to turn a significant profit within the T20 period or to let them run as part of my long term holding.

[superg1] 19/12/2014 08:42

Yash

If you are looking at lithium investments, then keep on eye on what Enirgi group are doing in Argentina. They are private but they claim to have come up with some tech that produces lithium in 24 hours rather than the 500 day evaporation method, they plan to hit 50,000 mt per year (ib 2017 I think). That amount should impact lithium prices as SQM Suggested RB's intended 20,000 mt would.

Nice article Che, that explains it nicely. That's why wells doing 3 barrels per day stay open as in examples given recently. If wells are making a profit they stay open, if not they close them.

There are plenty of shut gas wells in OK with high iodine contents, which are there waiting to be exploited in the future.

[cyberbub] 19/12/2014 07:21

Hopefully only 10 trading days until the productiom update?

[yasharsad] 18/12/2014 22:07

Thanks CheInteresting articles.

[hurricane.] 18/12/2014 21:39

Thanks che7win, very interesting indeed. Onwards and upwards for iofina's iodine business model!

'In the U.S., Exxon spent an average of $12.72 to extract a barrel of oil last year, its cheapest operating region aside from Asia and Europe, company figures showed. Some operators have even lower costs: Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) spends about 99 cents to pump each barrel from its 1.8 billion-barrel discovery known as the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province, or SCOOP. Continental, controlled by Oklahoma billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, discovered the SCOOP in 2012.'

[che7win] 18/12/2014 21:06

Interesting article on oil in relation to recent discussions:

[che7win] 18/12/2014 20:41

You're a braver person than me, but they are a quality company.

Oil prices will have an effect, recent articles





I admire the way they have given all their patents way freely to their rivals, and the Tesla Model S P85D is a fantastic car.
However, Mercedes, Porsche, BMW and Audi will provide steep competition from here on, they are throwing €6bn at BEV cars.

[yasharsad] 18/12/2014 20:32

Re 28130I'm a holder of Tesla too. And it seems they are confident of their growth. With their mega factory and expansion in Europe. Oil prices are in their cyclical down leg now. There will be an upwards move at some point. Also, lithium has got other uses too, the laptop that you are using it or your smart phone to certain drugs such as antidepressants tall have Li in there.Tesla Supercharger Network in Switzerland Keeps GrowingSource: PR Newswire (US)ZURICH, December 12, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --Two new stations in St. Moritz and Martignyallow convenient long distance travel to ski resorts in Switzerland and Italy - for free With the opening of two new Supercharger locations, Tesla Motors has expanded its Supercharger network in Switzerland to six locations.

[superg1] 18/12/2014 18:38

I'd be surprised if it that long Che. With iodine at these prices and 600mt of inventory I think continuing operations will be losing them money.

Q4 is generally quiet and there is no point sitting on the iodine until they pass away. Within 6 weeks seems a fair bet to me.

[che7win] 18/12/2014 18:30

30th April.

A real possibility that lithium demand slumps with the oil price fall.
Who needs a Tesla vehicle with the price of petrol.

[superg1] 18/12/2014 18:26

Well it's said there was little sign of a supply going into the afternoon too, so lets see how tomorrow goes.

It's said, as posted at the time (repeatedly) that a large holding got hit on a margin call.

[superg1] 18/12/2014 18:05

I fancy a sweepstake on which day RB will announce closure of the iodine mine. Perhaps it will be at the same time as goodbye and goodnight.

It will happen.

If they thought fund raising was bad months ago, then it probably seemed like shelling peas compared to now.

[magwich] 18/12/2014 16:57

Probably busy buying presents!!