Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[alphacharlie] 16/12/2014 07:29

Morning RUGRAT - Thank you for the maps and information which in the scheme of things add to the picture - that's a genuine thank you by the way.

Last night's post was the third I'd made, the first of which was posted here on Friday of last week. I was actually trying to (re)find the pictures of the depot itself rather than the site.

I see that maca on the other thread has taken great delight in ridiculing my post of last night and the fact it was voted up by so many. I haven't time right now to post there as well but I'm sure his contribution to my 'research' will be appreciated by all. So if anyone has the following information (you there maca with all your research?) I'd be grateful:

1 The phone number of the depot
2 Any web based information of any sort
3 And last but not least - photographs of the actual depot from street level.

Finally - this is for you maca, the 'lost' photograph(s) were only a part of my post of last night and perhaps all those ticks up were for the water permit link. I don't know - but the 'votes' are not important, contrary to what you may think. So with you're undoubted knowledge of all things IOF I'm sure you will have all the information I seek. I look at the other thread this evening and anticipate your response.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/12/2014 07:27

25 is my bet bud, what's yours?

[bryproj] 16/12/2014 07:25

Up early today to gloat regardless of your hangover?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/12/2014 07:13

Now Graham, stop it! How could I have kneown?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/12/2014 07:10

"On behalf of all the team we thank Jeff for his years of service and underlying support as a shareholder. We wish him well."

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/12/2014 06:42

Anyone bidding 25 today? lol

[rugrat2] 15/12/2014 23:09

alphacharlie - sorry to burst your bubble but I'm afraid that your screenshots from GoogleEarth are not showing the Culbertson depot. Go south, across the Missouri bridge past the proposed AWS abstraction site and along highway 16 for a mile and a quarter, and turn west for 3/4 mile along county road 152. The depot is clear to see, with a tanker filling from one of the two pads. You can see the line of the pipeline, and the pump position to the NW in the river



If anyone wants to check, get the Township,Range, Section info off of the water rights doc and look on the Montana Cadastral:



By the way a dead giveaway is that the depot is in Richland County, not Roosevelt. Oh, and not a house of any description for miles!

[superg1] 15/12/2014 22:34

I was just thinking about the Oasis slick water comments, they plan to do 70% to 90% of previously planned wells for 2015, but most of them using the slick water method. as slick water can be 4 times the rate of water used. If they just did that on 25% of their wells it could equal all the water they would have used under the older methods for 100% of the wells, so even with less drilling their water use will jump.

As slick water methods report 30% to over 100% increases in production it is probably more important to use that method on a price drop, so that they are getting the payback very early on.

Not forgetting such companies are committed to forward selling so it gives more oil from less wells.

[superg1] 15/12/2014 22:28

Alpha If it's all about water then those with a half a wit should consider the potential for the permit to be awarded in view of water laws and the objection process.

We have a hearing on the same subject with the experts objecting. These prices compared to permit awarded and potentially a JV on that side make it lucrative.

However such is the market, the wise ones just wait for the right time and circumstances.

Fortunately we got a full insight into the revenue this year that October started well on production (Tom Becker Interview) and was still going well mid November. Supply contracts sat on a desk, costs being slashed and some near term tweaks to up production.

It was said to be between 1.4 and 1.7 mt per day at the start of October. In mid November they said on track to hit the 325 to 350 range indicating a rate over 36m to 44mt per month.

So we know production has been good. The chances of not getting the permit are very very low risk, I only add that to cover sods law as I have it as 100% certain.

Those that understand it all sit back thinking yes some may sell if it goes to a hearing, others think, wow what a free bet that would be.

I could understand if was 80p with a hearing on the way, but we know the iodine production is more or less in the bag for Q4.

Forced sellers keep it dipping, that will disappear at some point. Like on all shares it's all about timing.

Your either back the prospects or you don't. It's been spelt out in great detail how current production seems to fall well short of demand. A situation masked by inventories and a couple of desperate Chile producers with that inventory. SQM are OPEC in the iodine industry. They have cut production but they have taken the price down to kill off other producers. It is definitely a false market. The facts and figures prove that, and it will bite at some point.

OPEC cut production to control the price, SQM have cut production and have taken the price down, Replacing production isn't as simple as opening the oil valves. SQM will soon have an excuse to up their prices due to a supply/demand shortage and they know that,. They will however pay very close attention to RB and Cosayach to ensure they are dead before taking their foot off their throats.


Here is the interview as a reminder

[superg1] 15/12/2014 20:26

Che

Zac Mir hmmmm I was going to mention that, if you want any evidence that charts are useless then he proved it re IOF. On the last one recently I thought, cheers Zac I know what will happen now. "Reached the bottom" etc he said.

Bogg1e

The full period is only relevant if someone doesn't reply as they would have to wait to ensure no reply is coming.

Let's say the last letter went out on 8th December (I bet that is a good guess)then 15 + 7 if they don't reply. They could reply straight away, but that is more or less the maximum time for replies which takes us to 30th December.

It could only be earlier if all reply/letters received quickly.

It could go to a hearing, and if you are Robo then he is praying for that as he considers some would sell. Loads sold as soon as the objection box was filled.

The rules states 90 days for a hearing from the end of the objection date. There is nothing in the current objections that I can see that would cause IOF to need longer, they have all their evidence.

If I was IOF and ready to go then I'd ask for a hearing ASAP, but in any case it has to be before the end of February.

None of the above stops any JV talks, or announcement of the result of such talks. They are likely to give a production update early Jan or before anyway, and on that side of things ignoring the iodine price, things seem to have gone very well, as in news.

SQM said the price would probably fall in Q4 and we have 2 weeks left of that. They consider the bottom is this Quarter or possibly edging into early 2015.

Q4 is always the slowest time in the iodine industry with Q1 and 2 being the active period. The good thing is that low prices increase the demand for iodine, as market sectors that disappeared on high prices will be back which gets rid of the inventories faster.

If you take Mr Big's view that we should be happy to be able to get them at lower prices, then there are a whole load of reasons why Q1 should be a very interesting time for IOF.

I keep checking daily for RB to announce the closure of the iodine mine. They clearly hinted they wanted to sell that. Their clear interest re funding is lithium only. The price now must have them at a point where continuing at the mine is adding to the debt. They have some inventory to keep the cash coming in.

The court protection is due to expire on 30th April.

Can you imagine in this current climate how it must be virtually impossible for them to get a backer. It's far worse now than when no one wanted to help them last time.


Unlike Zac I don't bother trying to guess where the bottom will be. If we had a big buyer in recent times, there wouldn't have been the margin calls which makes a big difference.

There have been but for those sitting on hands rubbing them thinking how many they can get for £10k, then it's a lot more than a few weeks back, which often presents a problem when many folks have the same plan. Especially when the spike eventually comes as that has more buying.

Someone took this well over 60p buying over 1 million shares, yet the news was poor production. Now we have good production it's gone the other way.

Over $20 mill revenue beating last year with 9 months gone. It will be slow in Q4 it always is, but they were getting low on the inventory imo which should be at safe levels now as we enter the iodine buying season.

[bogg1e] 15/12/2014 19:45

SG, you mention that deficiency letters would have to be sent by 11th December (19th november + 22 days). Do the deficiency reply period of 15 days also include a postal rule, adding another 7 days to the deficiency response time? Which would make the date of awarding the permit (assuming objections are denied) the 26th december or January 2nd if 7 days are added. Obviously there is also Christmas day, boxing day and new years day which may not be included in the period, extending the date to 5th January? Tia.

[che7win] 15/12/2014 19:43

I blame Zak Mir, he must be wrong 9 out of 10 times on IOF!

The AIM market is looking poor in general, so in that context IOF isn't going to do well.

I think the market had a news fix on IOF a bit like being addicted to drugs. It is cold turkey taking us off that, but at the same time it's needed to show a level of maturity in the business, better going ahead.

I agree with Naphars post, the market can do it's own thing, any further falls and a small share buyback would mitigate recent funding.

At this price, we don't even need to expand, those 6 plants will justify the market cap when iodine rises, which can't be too far off. Businesses are working through inventory this quarter, restocking will have to take place at some stage.

Finally, if you want to see a rough graphical depiction of our water plant, all you have to do is look at the annual report.
It looks like up to 5 simultaneous truck stops to me, page 2:

[superg1] 15/12/2014 19:29

On another point, when markets are bad, SB companies often move the goalposts and up the margin needed.

EG I have seen some where they want a 25% margin but then move it to 40%, that also can close some out of force sells to cover.

They drop the margin rates in good markets then up them in bad, which amplifies and accelerates the problem.

[bocker01] 15/12/2014 19:26

Heart, to answer your question, the share price is telling me that news is necessary and the news that's coming over the next few weeks and over the next quarter tells me it's likely to be far better to be long and longer than out!

[superg1] 15/12/2014 19:25

Well I'm not the only one thinking it was a margin, just got a message from those in the right place suggesting todays selling including a margin call in a spread bet account. I've no idea which company.

That is not exclusive to IOF it is just the way of the market, some guys will be leveraged across many shares including Blue chips. If they get hit hard, often the entire portfolio goes.

EG on vodaphone someone could with only £10k get £200ks worth. It then doesn't take much to go bust, a 5p move down and they would be toast out.

I would imagine quite a few got smoked in Tesco.

If you have £50k you can bet £1 million, mad isn't it, but some do.

[alphacharlie] 15/12/2014 19:25

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I think this will help.

[alphacharlie] 15/12/2014 19:20

Sorry - the two maps are not showing too well. I'll upload them again as separate posts. It may take a while.

[monty panesar] 15/12/2014 18:53

I agree with Naphar. With only 6 weeks to go before the end of the year(17th Nov)they were on target to hit their production target of 325-350t. At that stage they were probably close to 300t so any deviance over the last 4 weeks can't be that great. Sales are fine with Iodine price fairly static over the last few months according to zauba.The water is going through its process but the news over the weekend suggests it will be granted in a relatively short space of time. I just think it is bored punters who jumped in on the water news at 55p closing out positions. Nothing more than that.

Mr Big probably just biding his time before getting out his dustpan and brush.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/12/2014 18:00

Thing is Steve I've seen a few too many posts like his for my liking.

[naphar] 15/12/2014 17:48

Roundup
"Even if they said they were still on course to produce iodine to the predicted amount would help enormously."

I don't think that would help. Why not? Because they told us that back in November, and the price has fallen since.

I think we need water permit certainty one way or another, preferably positive, some news of how it will be monetised, news of Q4 output being at least within target range, and news of planned future roll outs. Bit by bit will be fine by me to keep some momentum, but positive news it will take to get the share price to a better place.