Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[madchick] 18/9/2014 08:17

I keep on thinking that they managed 40MT with just three plants. If IO.2 won't have as much brine now, and if the (presumably cost-saving) changes to the two new plants are now in pace, then maybe we can beat expectations next month.

However, I don't think the market will be giving IOF the benefit of the doubt. I haven't dared look at the share price yet!! Off to do that now!

[woodpeckers] 18/9/2014 08:15

Good to see that Proactive are providing a balanced view.

[freshvoice] 18/9/2014 08:14

The correlation between delay and disappointment have continued.
Did we ever produce 40 plus or were we counting what Lance found in various spots from previous months, makes you wonder.

[madchick] 18/9/2014 08:13

I've had my main rant over on LSE. I think the last update with prediction for August was completely irresponsible (as I said I would find it if it turned out to be the case).

This is the second time the year's guidance has been downgraded, so it's not really "just" 15%.

The upgraded SWD is now going to have less brine, so no hope for an immediate benefit there.

I'm still very confident in IOF, I still think it will come good in the end, but what is most disappointing for me today is that there is no immediate reason to think of an upside bounce. I'm assuming that SWD was for IO.2? In which case, IO2 won't be poducing so much for the rest of the year, potentially.

Hopefully next month's guidance is an underestimate, but can we afford to hold our breath?

However, the very positive thing is the stellar performance of IOF Chemical and the CEO of IOF Chemical is now the CEO of the group. So, I have some hope that the revised target is at least realistic for September.

Long-term, I believe IOF is a winner. Short-term I think we will have carnage and it will last at least until we get some good news on water or a beaten expectations on iodine production. It might be a bit of a wait. IMO.

[captain_kurt] 18/9/2014 08:11

For long term holders, this is buying territory imo

[kcowe] 18/9/2014 08:08

normal service resumed ... down she goes..

[hurricane.] 18/9/2014 08:07

Got to love the lemmings. It's how the market transfers wealth

[festario] 18/9/2014 08:06

SuperG, agreed they shouldn't make such forecasts, but they do, and then don't achieve.If we had an annual update today only, with a 15% drop in forecast, that would in itself have hit us hard. Because it is a 15% drop on a very low figure compared to what we always hoped for IOF this year.

[typo56] 18/9/2014 08:05

Well, well. Yet more failure to deliver. What a surprise.

[1madmarky] 18/9/2014 08:05

Remember we are getting hung up on 1 or 2 months production. It's not like we have to wait 6 months or a year, this is just a couple of months.
The BOD just can't get a break at the moment,but obviously believe it is just a delay and will be back on track soon.
GLA

[alphacharlie] 18/9/2014 08:03

Festario
18 Sep'14 - 07:53 - 24568 of 24570 0 0

Monts, the August target was pivotal, and was missed by 30%, hence I see anything less than a 30% markdown in share price today to be a bonus.

Auction - you could be right Festario . . .

[hurricane.] 18/9/2014 08:02

Like hurdling cattle lol

[festario] 18/9/2014 08:00

Ha, Mr Big... you will be need a big hoover today!I would get the Mrs to empty the hoover bag, as you will have a lot to pick up.

[superg1] 18/9/2014 08:00

Richi

Aha

Someone with a bit of common sense re your post re timings for your own plan.

'I agree fest. And I will sell over the next week or two when I feel the price is settled... I always avoid the bun fight, as you end up panicking.'

I had punts on other shares over the years and the same can be said for good or bad news. PLE experienced that the other day, it flew on the 'good' news and buyers piled in. It was below it's previous day's price in no time, and has sunk below prices pre the big news now.

I call it standing on the pavement watching rush hour.

There isn't anything IOF can do about all the frack disruption and upgrades by the oil operators, and that's why they shouldn't make such forecasts.

[hurricane.] 18/9/2014 07:57

Two fold production increase from 2013 and sales expected to surpass all of 2013 in Sept, with all short term production items now rectified.

Watch for the cheap shares

[festario] 18/9/2014 07:53

Monts, the August target was pivotal, and was missed by 30%, hence I see anything less than a 30% markdown in share price today to be a bonus.

[mister big] 18/9/2014 07:53

If you actually step back a tad you see a company actually steadily producing quantities of iodine on a much better cost base . Most of the aim companies we see have no revenue and no profit . Iofina produces at the moment small quantities of iodine sufficient for it's chemical division which produces a range of niche chemical products .
It's clearly got a bench mark of around 500mt of low cost iodine and I expect they will add sensible projects as they go along .
Anything below 50 will be hovered up.

[superg1] 18/9/2014 07:51

MM3

No one I know seemed to have the slightest clue, but yes maybe some did, the nomad will have known of course. The market did get hit anyway re Scotland, and YES I am absolutely certain some sizeable T trades ran out of time (lucky for them).

The main point seems to be the buyers pulled off, but that simply could have been down to the market situation re Yes/No as the whole market got hit.

I'm all for not trusting nomads, but their is little evidence of what you say, considering the market situation in the last week or two.

Someone did point out 100k came on the bid which I though was the old buyer back.

Clearly whoever that was had no clue either.

[captain_kurt] 18/9/2014 07:50

Iofina (LON:IOF) confirmed all six of its IOsorb production plants are now up and running but said production had remained flat month on month.
The group, which extracts iodine from brine water recovered from oil and gas production in the US, said its performance had been held back by a number of “short term negative factors”.
They included continued fracking (which meant less water was recovered and shipped to plants), “unanticipated design changes” to its two latest operations and a salt water disposal site upgrade by an operator that took longer to complete than forecast.
In the month just gone the group produced 23.6 tonnes of crystalised iodine compared with 24.5 tonnes in July.
It is guiding that output for the year will be 325-350 tonnes, which, while below expectations, represents a two-fold increase on 2013.
Iofina said the iodine market remained “challenging”, but added it has seen “strong demand” for its derivatives.
As a result the company's revenues through to the end of September are anticipated to surpass the total sales for all of 2013.
Chief executive Tom Becker said: "Whilst iodine production year to date has been below our expectations, we are encouraged that iodine production moving forward will show a favourable trend as these new short term items are rectified.”

[monts12] 18/9/2014 07:46

not a good month but the overall production forecast for the year is reduced by 15% not 50 is that a reason to sell into a frenzy?

[richi_rich13] 18/9/2014 07:43

I agree fest. And I will sell over the next week or two when I feel the price is settled... I always avoid the bun fight, as you end up panicking.
I know you have been burnt before here (like me), and I suggest you take an objective look when the market is closed. Go back, re read RNS ' assess their forecasts, assess the iodine market and especially the price of iodine. Then work out where the growth in this company is going to come from. Clearly more plants doesn't do it. Increasing efficiency seems increasingly difficult, fracking companies do not care about it. The price of iodine is dropping at an alarming rate (yes I know all the arguments about costs and competitors). Ironically, the saviour of this company may come from a non core asset... that worries me as an investor.

[captain_kurt] 18/9/2014 07:42

The bad we are delayed again by a month for all six plants running effectively.

The good, all six plants are running now and the chemicals derivatives business is doing extremely well. Plus Mister big will get his order filled.

"Company's revenues through to September anticipated to surpass the total sales for all of 2013."

Light at the end of the tunnel for investors imo

[festario] 18/9/2014 07:42

Tom Becker has been royally shafted up the rear end by LB's rns of last month. 40mt just HAD to be surpassed.He has been put in a very embarrassing position, putting his name to this.Don't be surprised if we spike sub 40p early today.