Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 15/9/2014 15:57

Noujay,
I expect August figs are ok, if not it doesn't really matter, the trend is up.
I was urging caution on Aug. figs because of all the changes, I'm not fixated by a month but by the trend.

Of more interest is the results, I hope that is priced in by the market.

[che7win] 15/9/2014 15:49

Superg,
I understand the t trade volatility, made worse by abolishing stamp duty.

The fact is, there has always been t trades and spread betting here and on most other growth stocks, it doesn't explain the large swings.
The market here moves from over confidence to nervousness, that means the company still needs to reassure investors in my book.

The Scotland factor is positive for us, in that if they vote yes, my investment here is boosted by being overseas in a dollar denominated location.

We have a hedge against Sterling falling so to speak.

[superg1] 15/9/2014 15:45

An important bit re RB

The Company is in discussions with a potential significant investor (the "Lead Investor") for a lead order in the range of approximately C$39.1 - $44.1 million (where in any event, the Lead Investor would hold not less than 50.1% of the outstanding principal amount of Debentures upon closing of the Offering), with the remainder of the Debentures to be sold by the Agents. There can, however, be no assurance that the Lead Investor will participate in the Offering in such amount or at all.

[superg1] 15/9/2014 15:42

The side issue of RB of course is they will probably offload their iodine inventory cheaply, but when it's gone, it's gone.

[superg1] 15/9/2014 15:35

RB energy

They just got hit again on a 20% dive.

On the cash situation they have gone for

'a minimum of C$78 million and a maximum of C$88 million in secured convertible debentures'

Interest at 9 to 11%.

Someone calculated that they already have debts in some form or another of over $200 mill, payments on those and capital repayments come to around $30 mill per year. They just added $8 mill on top in interest.

[superg1] 15/9/2014 15:14

Che

re

'I don't have any t-trades, I just hate to see the volatility here'

It that issue and the traders that cause the volatility, this time around they are losing and hence have a good gripe about it.

Some will be geared all over the place on other shares, and it has a knock on effect.

The small matter of various country conflicts, and the Scotland issue here doesn't help, it's just the way it is.

Scottish related shares getting hit and generally any hit elsewhere has a knock on issue where people have to sell others to cover margins.

QFI seems popular with holders here, and that got hit too on recent news re a major shareholder.

Such events have consequences for people who go beyond their means, and it has a knock on effect for those that don't.

We will go through this cycle over and over again, and rarely has it anything to do with company prospects.

Annual subscription up soon, so I'll be glad to be not paying for the pleasure.

I'm not sure if the others claiming to be voting with their feet did so.

[obbig60] 15/9/2014 15:13

Someone has confidence - a hefty 200,000 buy. Could Mr Big be active again?

[che7win] 15/9/2014 15:00

Laura says it's a saggy bottom:

[superg1] 15/9/2014 15:00

As mentioned before no one was doing cart wheels and predicting a fantastic July update when the share price rose 40%. The actual update was 25mt, but as soon as it turns the other way, it's all gloom and doom.

I'll be glad to see the back on regular updates, it may then stop the bets on news, if the news timeline is unknown.

AOTN

Beat me to it, last 3 have been 3rd, 9th and 14th. 36 days and 36 days. 36 days is this Friday, but perhaps they will take it to early next week.

The very first gap was 28. So it's gone 28-36-36 to 32 so far.

It seems pretty regular to me.

[captain_kurt] 15/9/2014 14:56

Well if you believe newly appointed Mr Becker is not going to preside over abysmal current production figures then the current share price is looking very attractive

[roundup] 15/9/2014 14:39

Angel: you have used the example of last month 14th. And the production was abysmal. We are @ 15th now, what do you think the market suspects?

[che7win] 15/9/2014 14:30

Angel,
It doesn't really matter what we say, the chart is doing the talking.

I don't have any t-trades, I just hate to see the volatility here, there are large swings which I don't welcome, it's like a roller coaster.

I want to see stable and increasing production, I welcome the openness since April and we need monthly updates until we are sure we are consistent in raw iodine production.

The six plants should help a lot, takes the weight off io2.

[angel of the north] 15/9/2014 14:03

Sorry - roundup has no point! Last months update was the 14th so Thursday coming will be still within the time frame. Mondays have never been favoured for this - it is usually a Thursday. (Sick of repeating this now).

[che7win] 15/9/2014 13:58

I think roundup has a point here, the market hates uncertainty, even more so than bad news, hence a 20% fall from a couple of weeks ago.

[monkeymagic3] 15/9/2014 13:41

superg1 4 Jun'14 - 11:25 - 21689 of 24395 3 2

Richi

I think the point is exactly that, monthly updates until normal service is resumed.
.



Perhaps normal service has resumed?

[roundup] 15/9/2014 13:28

Each month since that announcement productivity was announced at the beginning of the month. Is it unreasonable to think that, until notice to the contrary, this practice would continue?

[neddo] 15/9/2014 13:20

the market is showing , what they think of the , stuff you , style management

[superg1] 15/9/2014 12:55

Monthly updates.

IOF never said monthly updates, bulletin boards are where that is said.

'For the sake of transparency, the Board will report regularly on ;iodine 
production rates, whilst keeping mindful of competitive advantage'

No doubt they will let us know how August went, and the longer it takes, we then get a good idea how Sept is going too.

Hopefully is a cunning plan to switch to quarterly rates, then back to the normal 6 month rule, quarterly would be nice though.

[superg1] 15/9/2014 12:48

Roger

The good thing on that point is that IOF have the 3D data, and it's from that information that they dumped some leases and gained/retained others. So from what they had originally they chose the apparent sweet spots.


On the Oklahoma leases for brine, they are for life. Every lease gained adds to the asset value re any T/O interest.

[rogerbridge] 15/9/2014 10:42

I know SG has been banging on about IOF obtaining as many leases as possible but there is an interesting parallel with an article about Harold Hamm of Continental Resources, in Moneyweek.
"What set Hamm apart from other moderately successful independent oil companies"
says the Washington Post, was his prescience in snapping up leases on North Dakota's rich Bakken formation before anyone else, on the hunch that new technology would eventually make it possible to extract crude that was hard to reach. He was right.
Food for thought over a coffee break.

[roundup] 15/9/2014 10:39

The fact is that Lance promising to release to the market the productivity each month. We can now give logical reasons as to why this hasn't happened this month. I must say I am surprised at Lance; he should know what happens when the market becomes disappointed. There could be a good reason why this information is delayed, but Lance better have a good reason. Sentiment is at this moment being destroyed.

[rogerbridge] 15/9/2014 07:51

Agree on monthly updates

[superg1] 15/9/2014 07:44

Cross

The longer the period of a T trade the more likely the 'buyer' doesn't have the cash imo as the longer the period generally the higher the price to buy is.

Not needing to have the cash is a main reason to do a T trade.

Historical trading will let them know the likely patterns.

I mentioned them as there were some sizeable ones that did close, while some were posting about sells indicating bad news. Some of those were simply forced 'sells'.

Square 1

I'm with you there, the monthly update game encourages the above. It was good short term post the chaos, but they are getting things together now.

[cyberbub] 15/9/2014 07:23

Interims were 25th Sept last year so conceivably sometime this week, more likely next week. Let's hope they are storing up some good news! Clearly the results themselves will be quite lacklustre because they had only just started turning the company round, so we shouldn't hope for any good numbers... but a break-even for the 6 months would be positive.. and the outlook is the critical thing (as well as August production)...