Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[hew] 16/9/2014 10:20

Bogg1e, I expect all that is so, but it does not change my conclusion: that when it comes, the RNS had better be good. I reject your word "whim".

[festario] 16/9/2014 10:18

Lilac diamonds? Kind of defeats the object, not too shiny I reckon.Might as well just buy an Amethyst from my little shop for £1.50... ha ha

[bogg1e] 16/9/2014 10:17

Lance has the unfortunate job of rectifying mistakes he thought would never be made. As a result cost cuts have left iofina with a sufficient but a much reduced staff count. Furthermore, the company is currently busy with short term changes, such as the new ceo, plant review, meetings with the japs, etc etc. Interrims are imminent. You cant have it both ways. You cant expect Lance to get the company back on a sure footing and pander to every PI whim. Yes he said monthly updates, but this month we need to give IOF a break, because there is a lot on. Calculating monthly production is not a simple task, in part because it goes through the accounts department, which is a very busy department right now and the interrims are more important a priority for the accounts department than this months production figures.

Mr Big, any green diamonds?

[joestalin] 16/9/2014 10:15

SP is up by 9% today - is this good news on the way or a big order to fill?

Either way I am back in the black.

[hew] 16/9/2014 10:03

Discussion (on topic) apart from by Madchick above, well said - is centred on production made or not made with respect to targets in the last RNS. For me that misses the main point: that it is IOF's trustworthiness that is really in play.

At the AGM Lance said, in terms, that monthly updates were to be the norm until stability was restored - I heard it clearly. Stability has not yet been restored as far as we have been informed, and certainly not by the last RNS. Just possibly the next one may be a basis to consider we now have a solid platform. Having established a run of monthly updates, the least we should expect is a statement that they have ceased. Stability is a precursor to that, of course. The minor administrative convenience of perhaps delaying the report to the half year Results is no excuse. The share price fall is entirely deserved; had confidence been established, a little delay would not matter - but it has not been.

By delaying, they have multiplied the consequences of what they report by several times. If the report - re production plants all ok and at a minimum making the 1.7/day and 40 for August, then some may be entirely happy - but I will be left with a negative impression re their communications. More care needed. If the situation is not what we hope for, the reaction will be severe and far more so than if a report describing the continuing issues had been prompt.

[mister big] 16/9/2014 09:36

We have all sorts of coloured diamonds . Yellows common and we occasionally get red ones and recently a Liliac which is so rare no one has seen one before !!

[phoenixs] 16/9/2014 09:27

superg, In the context of what I understand has been falling production and increasing demand, surely the 1500 mt produced and in inventory held by RB should not have any influence on the price.

[superg1] 16/9/2014 09:16

1500mt produced last year.

They suspended the use of their Agitating plant and the final opex while that was in use was $41 per kg.

They forecast 1000mt of production this year.

They had planned to add a ball mill ($15 mil) this year to assist the ALP, with plans to produce 2000+ this year.

They stopped supplying in H2 last year due to a reported 12-14 week supply time which was forcing them to sell iodine more cheaply to retain customers, hence the suspension of the supply. That turned out to be a lie, they had inventory.

At the start of 204 they had built up just under 800mt of inventory.

I think they sold 129 mt of iodine in Q1, then 520 mt ish in Q2.

That had them selling more iodine than they produced.

As of June 30th they had around 630mt left and are now desperate for cash. They reported iodine sales would cover the lithium running costs.

In July the India iodine imports took off and don't seem to be letting up. I suspect India are buying in bulk form a desperate RB energy.

So with the anticipated production and inventory, the total this year could be RBs biggest yet of 1800mt, but then the inventory will be gone and if they fold so will the production.

Hence my view that the lower prices are being caused by RB and Cosayach, and some time in 2015 a production shortage will cause a price spike.

[bogg1e] 16/9/2014 09:15

Sweet. Are yellows really that expensive? I know pinks are the rarest, all from one mine in australia, only a couple of hundred metres of ore left to process before all pinks exhausted.

[festario] 16/9/2014 09:15

Mister Big fills his trolley as often as Uriney used to do!Sadly for us all, it is at a much lower level now though.

[che7win] 16/9/2014 09:12

This is all getting a bit crazy here, including the silly price.
Obsession over August figures I regard as largely irrelevent now because:

1. It was a transition month, September will be cleaner.

2. The passage of time, we are so well into September now that the current September run-rate is of more importance.

A bit like the results we are waiting for, they have largely been overtaken by the changes in the company since May.

I smell a bargain.

[mister big] 16/9/2014 09:08

Some cracking ones - we produce around 10,000 carats a month from three mines but had a lovely 4ct fancy yellow that will pull down big bucks !

[bogg1e] 16/9/2014 09:03

Morning, find any nice diamonds?

[mister big] 16/9/2014 08:55

It's a beautiful morning in Pretoria ! And I have put my buying boots on !

[madchick] 16/9/2014 08:48

SG - great post on RB.

However, again, I disagree to some extent with your post about all that could have gone wrong with production in August. You aren't saying anything that wasn't RNSd and thus IOF should also know these dangers. They nevertheless forecasted halfway through the month in that very same RNS that they expect to achieve 40MT. If they had any doubts about that at all, they should have kept their mouths shut, so I will regard it as a reckless thing to have said if they fail to achieve it. Sorry! I'm obviously in harsh mode today!

I'm not denying that bad things happen (we are all too aware of that!), but IOF need to tread on safe ground now and not give false hope, should there be any substantial risk involved in making that prediction. Their prediction should have been one that was pretty much failsafe or worst-case scenario. I will be upset if they got that wrong. It's IOF setting the expectations here and they need to show their reliability in more ways than one. They didn't make any forecasts before, so why bother if they might miss it; a prediction for the next month wasn't expected by the market.

Having said that, until you started posting all that might go wrong, I was pretty confident that they would reach their target. Actually, I still am. It would be senseless to make a prediction that they may not achieve, especially as they've never made a forecast before. I can't believe they'd be so foolish or just pander to what the market wants to hear by making that prediction regardless of whether it might be successful or not.

And, at the end of the day, like you, I feel it doesn't really matter because long-term it will be completely unimportant!

And apologies to mm3 since I agree that I am adding to the tedium of discussing an RNS that hasn't appeared :-)

Back to sleep...

[the fat controller] 16/9/2014 08:18

Superg,
Could you remind me what RB's total output was last year? If they don't raise the necessary finance, is there a scenario that all this capacity will be lost?
That would certainly impact the price of Iodine. And leave the Japs looking elsewhere for reliable supply agreements!
TFC, back to lurking.

[superg1] 16/9/2014 08:03

Did anyone take the time to read the RB energy news




Read it in detail, they are in serious financial trouble and are having to apply to the TSX exchange to raise funds well in excess of the normal rules.

They have applied for exemption because..

(i) the Company is in serious financial difficulty,


Then it all hangs on one 'lead investor' who will provide over half of the cash they want.

Look where a large amount of the cash is to go.

(i) settlement of existing debentures in the approximate principal amount of C$18 million; (ii) repayment of recent operational short-term loans and advances and to pay outstanding trade payables; (iii) satisfying the scheduled senior bank credit facility principal repayments for the balance of 2014



They have 11.8 mill to pay every 6 months excluding the interest on loans.

They could very easily collapse short term and are in a desperate situation.

Their impact on the iodine market this year is a forecast 1000mt production and 800mt that was in their inventory.

They stopped selling any iodine in H2, 2013 hence the inventory. So they hit the market on iodine supply mainly in Q2 this year and it will have continued in Q3. I would imagine they will be very keen to offload the iodine inventory.
That may be a contributing factor to the sudden big surge in India iodine imports from July on.

Once the inventory is gone a bit more balance will return, but then the company could well be gone too.

[superg1] 16/9/2014 07:49

Tim

I haven't a clue how it went. I did post about the various plant points of ...

io2 SWD upgrade to be complete in the following week.

Io5 and 6 only just started and we know there can be tweaks needed post start up. We would be lucky of they didn't need any at all.

io4 booster pump being put in.

It wouldn't have been wise to forecast 40mt on the back of perfect execution, especially as the SWD upgrade and booster pump were beyond their control. But that is not to say they took a risk in forecasting it. EG if they were thinking 1.7mt as an exit rate, 1.7 mt for a week would be 12 mt.

They could have been on 15mt when they said it, or 30, we simply don't know.

Some attach huge importance to the execution of 40mt, others like Mr Big don't.

Clearly they are well down the road of sorting out the mess created, but there is clearly some left to do.

Some forced sells kicked off the dip, and others joined in. The chaos across the markets has helped considerably, and some that think that mass forced sells across 100's of shares hasn't happened as a result of the market troubles, doesn't know the market.

IOF could report 30mt, 40mt or more. What we do know is whatever they produce is flying out of the door through the chemical division at record rates.

[tim3416] 16/9/2014 07:37

The quote regarding an expected 40mt for August was made nearly half way through the month. Iof would have had a good idea what was being produced at the time. I doubt very much if that would have been put in an RNS unless the company were pretty sure they could get somewhere near or exceed it.

[bocker01] 16/9/2014 07:26

"The Company is expected to exit August producing 1.7 mt/day under normal, or expected, operations. Total August production is expected to be 40mt." I imagine that a material deviation from this would constitute a surprise as outlined by SG above. On that basis, I doubt it necessary to worry too much!

[superg1] 16/9/2014 07:20

Bogg1e

Overnight I'm told by the guys that actually work in the business that the rule of thumb is no more than one rns per month. That would exclude surprises of course.

The last few have been 28, 35 and 35 days apart, so we are within that period.

35 days up later this week, but if the interims are next week, I can't see the nomad issuing one rns Thurs/Fri and then interims next week.

Just guessing on interims but a few better placed than me think they are near, and it fits in with last years release time.

That doesn't mean there won't be a production update rns prior to that, just guessing under the circs, and on the comments some make.

1MM

Yes, the 'are we there yet' syndrome.

[1madmarky] 16/9/2014 05:28

I thought RNS 's cost a few hundred quid, but that is relying on memory.
As for why no production numbers yet..... Probably because it is not important to Lance and the BOD. It is a nause having to do it each month with no doubt a flood of emails say when you gonna release it, when you gonna release it, when you gonna release it etc etc.
Personal I want to see the monthly numbers so that I know that they are getting on with it. But getting them out will not be a high priority. AIMHO GLA

[malachey] 15/9/2014 23:40

'The fact that we have a "delayed" monthly update is probably because IOF would rather spare the time and cost of multiple RNS's and do it all in one go with the interrims.'

Out of interest, do you know much it costs to release an rns?