Invensys Share Discussion Threads

[rumpelstiltskin2] 23/5/2013 08:52

I am not sure what one-offs are included in the historic number, but the analysts must have made the right adjustments for their forecasts. it is not huge growth, and there is still pots of money on the balance sheet doing nothing, so you need to adjust for that

[rumpelstiltskin2] 23/5/2013 08:26

lol. don't know what your game is but the consensus numbers are 16.1p in the current year and 19p the following year.

[bobsidian] 23/5/2013 06:09

jak1 21 May'13 - 15:24 - 113449 of 113455

"Sounds to me like you missed the boat, or gave up and sold out before all this kicked off."

Are you seriously suggesting that if you talk negatively about the prospects of a share it can only be because of a supposed missed buying opportunity ?

ISYS is not alone in being overvalued relative to the prospects of underlying growth in EPS. What characterises a top in equity markets is a presumption that there is no such thing as peak earnings and that the growth in earnings to achieve that peak will continue forever and a day.

"Most anal_ist are very positive on ISYS..."

Good old analysts. Ever the ones to encourage investors to buy at the top of a market whilst quietly encouraging clients to sell.

What have the directors been doing with their shareholdings ? Have they been net buyers or net sellers of their shareholdings and share options ?

[bobsidian] 23/5/2013 05:58

"I get a PE of 11X 2014 after deducting the cash."

Eh ?

Are you looking at the underlying EPS of the remaining business after the sale of Invensys Rail ?

If the current share price is used then after the return of cash ISYS would be trading on a current P/E ratio of around 37 times the underlying earnings of the remaining business. Is that the pace of growth in earnings being intimated by ISYS for 2013/14 for the remainder of its business ? Was the underlying earnings growth in 2012/13 of the surviving elements of the ISYS business not 25% ?

You are asking a lot for ISYS to be able to generate such a pace of growth in earnings on a sustainable basis.

[bakero] 22/5/2013 15:25

Very helpful, thanks for your input

[rumpelstiltskin2] 22/5/2013 15:14

check with you tax adviser. taking time to get up through 400

[bakero] 22/5/2013 13:58

Yes, perhaps more than ever!For ISYS held in an ISA, am I right in thinking there is no difference between accepting the dividend or capital options? Either will be paid as cash into the ISA with no tax implications either way.Outside of an ISA should take dividend if not a higher rate tax payer (nothing further to pay). For a higher rate tax payer choice is to take dividend and pay additional income tax (25% on amount received), or take as capital where (unless small) is treated as a part disposal and pay 28% on any gain above annual exemption (after taking into account other gains/losses of the year)Outside of ISA is also possible to delay CGT to 2014/2015 if that suits better (no payment for 11 months in that case)Am I correct here?!

[rumpelstiltskin2] 22/5/2013 12:25

are these still in play?

[rumpelstiltskin2] 21/5/2013 14:27

very rude heath here as nearly half the market capitalisation is cash. I get a PE of 11X 2014 after deducting the cash. what PE are Emerson Electric and Schneider Electric trading on?

[jak1] 21/5/2013 14:24

Sounds to me like you missed the boat, or gave up and sold out before all this kicked off. Most anal_ist are very positive on ISYS...

[bobsidian] 21/5/2013 13:47

One look at the share price performances of SL. and PSN on the lead up to the day of similar capital returns shows just what can happen.

It would not be surprising to see ISYS rise up to the date of the distribution. However, unlike PSN or SL. their share price performances are currently underpinned by strong earnings growth. ISYS is likely to lack such EPS growth.

[m welsh] 21/5/2013 10:19

76.7p per share expected to be paid back to shareholders start of July. Check out press release on Invensys site

[bobsidian] 16/5/2013 12:03

One look at the results shows just how much the share price of ISYS is now in la-la territory. Look at the EPS for continuing operations - even on an underlying basis. Scary. But then again this is what a market top looks like.

ISYS is far from being the only share defying underlying fundamentals. Many a share is pricing in a pace of earnings growth based on what may be an earnings peak. You can just sense the coming stockmarket crash. The higher the major indices climb, the more savage the correction when it comes.

So how long will the Federal Reserve encourage the inflation of the US stockmarket bubble ? Will Carney dare to authorise the flooding of the UK financial system soon after his appointment ? Is the tumble in the price of gold a forewarning ?

Hmm. "Don't fight the Fed".

[patrick9092] 16/5/2013 05:35

MW...Results today at 7am

[m welsh] 15/5/2013 09:25

Are the results out tomorrow !!

[jak1] 12/5/2013 15:02

Cant see it, you have to be registered with them...

[dp9115] 08/5/2013 11:45

would be nice...

[rumpelstiltskin2] 07/5/2013 09:02

400 broken. 420 soon?

[rumpelstiltskin2] 06/5/2013 09:38

the longer they wait the more expensive it will get!

[jak1] 06/5/2013 07:14

"It does make it a bit more streamlined," he said in a phone interview. "You've got a niche business with a pretty leading position and long-term growth markets. There is probably no shortage of potential suitors," he added. "Sooner or later, this one goes out."


Emerson is a "natural candidate" for a takeover of the rest of Invensys's businesses, Steven Winoker, a New York-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said in a phone interview. The maker of technology for refrigerators and air conditioners was mainly interested in Invensys's meter and control systems business -- which Invensys still has -- when it approached the company last year, a person familiar with the matter said at the time.

[rumpelstiltskin2] 03/5/2013 15:02

can it close above 400?