Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 05/9/2019 16:26

Bon Accord centre in Aberdeen is being marketed at 8.3 NIY (may well sell for less) This isn't as large/regionally dominant as say a Trafford - but it's still a good comp (or rather a bad one) for a lot of stuff that Intu has Might argue that this is reflected in current share price (and to an extent it is) but the question is whether it's reflected in Intu's red books and what covenant pressure/refinance difficultly that might produce

[sbb1x] 05/9/2019 16:26

Into 35s we go.... target 38s

[sbb1x] 05/9/2019 16:19

Buyers seems to like this price to buy...... load up gladiators

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 15:08

As i said...stick or twist analysis time..

Maybe they will stay.. Next 1-3 days tell more

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 15:07

I agree with you. But until funds align with fundamentals, no npoint buying. They can also drop it another 30% first

[zccax77] 05/9/2019 15:06

SR - the funds can do what they like, does not change fundamentals. HMSO have a lot of options unlike Intu due to their diversified asset base all over Europe. 50% of their assets are euro, which remains an easier market to sell into.

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 15:02

Walking straight into a 20% rise just done hmso

See if the funds dump on them there.

Into the lions den . One to another

[sbb1x] 05/9/2019 15:01

I want to pay 31.50 come to daddy

[propinv] 05/9/2019 14:52

People are selling Intu and buying HMSO as hedge

[zccax77] 05/9/2019 14:52

The share price was 525p at the time so only a 20% premium. They would bite their hand off now. Anyway, the best bits of hmso are easily sold to third parties. Unfortunately the UK assets will be impossible to sell without a 30-40% discount, so no point selling.

[williamcooper104] 05/9/2019 12:38

Seriously stupid board re K bid Elliot won't let that happen a second time My issue with HMSO is that if there isn't a bid then after selling Bicester they may well reinvest into "opportunistic" assets But still there will be a huge share price pop before any damage is done my management

[williamcooper104] 05/9/2019 12:35

Yep - and they've to finance the 11 divi yield while they wait Don't get hmso short - momentum brexit play perhaps Not hugely bullish on HMSO but close to taking a position (have held it before)

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 12:05

I've no idea what they see. They seem happy to resqueeze from the low bounce. Doesn't make them right yet of course.

They do seem to think the market will book out 18-20% bounce.

Be a battle at this zone

Today has risen to it a bit fast don't you think? In low volume.

See if price falls back later and volume higher. Shorters would like that

[zccax77] 05/9/2019 11:52

Hmso’s outlet properties are the best retail assets in the whole of Europe. A brexit hedge due to strong Chinese demand. You am not sure what the shorters are seeing, maybe they are betting Intu will drag down hmso. But hmso has a lot of options compared to the former, only only problem they have is their up retail parks valued at 1bn and their up shopping centres, the latter are a heck of a lot nicer than intus.

[zccax77] 05/9/2019 11:47

Last year there was a 625p bod from kleppiere. Which the bod did not meaningfully engage with. So a lot say bid target. At the time even kleppiere said intus portfolio was a load of overvalued dross.

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 11:43

Depends who the shorters are though.

If 'informed' then they are going to be ok.

Good rally there. Big big test at 239/240-18% , spike to 243 20%

It's percentages for decision time by the low buyers 2-4 week gain

Soon find out if its stick it or twist

[zccax77] 05/9/2019 11:38

I notice how th shorts have increased massively for HMSO in the last month or so. The thing is if HMSo sell their via portfolio and their French and benelux assets they will get more than the market cap. Sometimes I think the shorters are stupid. There is a lot of demand of hmso assets their via portfolio has shown strong demand and will continue to grow.

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 10:55

Any answers? Because i asked the same question at 92p and got the usual replies.. ...

[williamcooper104] 05/9/2019 10:52

During last recession Liberty as Intu was then did (IIRC) three equity raises (they did v well to get out of the credit crunch alive) and de-levered by buying the Trafford Centre - they sold very few assets

[wigwammer] 05/9/2019 10:52

William - I can see you have lowered the net debt, but not the net income number! That's the only way you get an implied yield above 6.

[williamcooper104] 05/9/2019 10:50

Hpsg Vol is much less fun if you've got margin calls to fund Great if you can get a cheap put - but doubt it would be cheap Agree - a mega discounted equity raise particularly if accompanied by discounted debt buy backs would be interesting - and the Whitaker factor is a complication - I think he had leveraged his position too - which can't make things any easier (he may have covered this though by now - not sure) Brexit is a serious headwind that hasn't really hit yet - but even with no brexit ERVs have tanked about 30 percent and as you point out that's not yet reflected in current passing rent

[sentimentrules] 05/9/2019 10:45

Anyone crunched the numbers? Volumes/flows - the short interest renewed above its standard 5% peaks, on aggregate.

Whatever the value is here, there seems to be more monetary value for the market to go south at the moment.

And the numbers stack up for 23p..

Very difficult to see any values (if any good) being of interest prior.

There are far more millions at stake in yhe drop for funds currently, then any book value buying for them

[williamcooper104] 05/9/2019 10:44

Which would lower NRI but also net debt from last reported numbers The key thing is less the level of current yield but which one has the higher reversionary/long term sustainable yield Which is driven by which one has the better assets And there's just no question on that

[hpcg] 05/9/2019 10:35

Williamcooper - volatility is an excellent reason to short!

I presume the only reason they haven't done the big rights is they can't. Speculating further I assume that Whittaker can't or won't participate which would make it a non-starter. Bifurcating another level down, perhaps he won't because he knows it is good money after bad, or obversely he is a bag holder in denial. If he can't then either he needs an exit, which would be Woodford style, or he is knowingly trapped; sometimes there is not a solution. So maybe their way out is sales, but if Derby is any guide that is liquidation by another name; what they effectively did was to trade access to someone else's cheaper debt in return for rental income.

wigwammer - there will be ample opportunity to go long should the fundamentals change. Not sure what that will be, most of the Trafford bonds at the expensive end have over a decade to run. Interestingly in their report to fixed income investors they rank the minimal maturities before 2021 as a positive. However it is page 23 of that presentation that is most concerning. Their top 10 tenants list is 50% basket cases, and we know that Next, as the top exposure, has been aggressively reducing its rent.

The things that would cause me to reverse opinion: 1) a big equity raise, and 2) A definitive end to a no deal Brexit. I think the two go together as there is no chance of the latter without the former.