Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 10/9/2019 00:27

There are a few others - but of the blackstones of the world only Brookfield has an appetite for retail (and level of experience too) SPG might be able to fund it corporately - or rather probably would be able to - but would they put their cherished and rare A credit rating at risk

[williamcooper104] 10/9/2019 00:19

Yep - it says that - but I would still prefer HMSO with their market cap more than covered by Bicester Also what it doesn't state is the horrific spens liabilities - from memory the coupon on the Trafford debt is c6 percent - I think there's about 10 years to run They probably have modified spens clause - but even with that they would still need to pay PV of Coupon less (10 year gilt plus say 50bps) - that's easily hundreds of millions And yes of course any purchaser could of course keep the bonds outstanding but they then have the massive opportunity cost is not investing in a clean asset at current super low debt costs - and they'll see that opportunity cost on their cash on cash returns No question Trafford is a great centre and a huge land holding with lots of potential - but equally I well remember looking at it in 2010 - and in the midst of recession it was far from immune

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 23:55

I think that is academic. There is only one certainty which is only Brookfield can pull this off. No one else has the expertise or dept of capital to turn this around.

[wigwammer] 09/9/2019 23:52

It doesn't matter if it refers to equity or equity + debt financing. If you are lobbing billions off the asking price it is going to alter the chances of getting funding.

[williamcooper104] 09/9/2019 23:51

I'm too bullish on topshop It needs boat loads of capex - and don't think that will be forthcoming

[williamcooper104] 09/9/2019 23:50

The failure rate for CVAs is high - so doubt that both Debs and Arcadia will make it through Debs business model is simply gone There ought to be life, or rather the capacity for life, in Topshop - but huge execution risk in turnaround - and of course a little pension deficit

[wigwammer] 09/9/2019 23:42

What the FT article also says (yet conveniently ignored)... "Debt refinancing may yet prevent a deal for Intu as a whole. But, on a sum of the parts basis, it is starting to look a bigger bargain than anything the Trafford Centre's tenants can offer."

[williamcooper104] 09/9/2019 23:42

Suppose they could put something in to refinance Trafford (spens liabilities really nasty though on this) and then look to discounted debt buyback Might work - v complicated - and not necessarily aligning interests with current shareholders

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 23:42

Arcadia might not make it, same with DEBs. If they go then it is lights out for INTU.

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 23:40

Wig, agree with you. The question is whether Brookfield will come back and buy this. If they do then that will be the perfect outcome.

[williamcooper104] 09/9/2019 23:40

FT article specifically states that they had problems arranging bank funding - not equity funding I had heard that the impending CVA of Arcadia was a big spook issue for funders - and while that's happened I still struggle to see how you could get the required level of senior debt in this market

[wigwammer] 09/9/2019 23:35

With due respect, your point makes little sense. The Brookfield bid valued the equity at nearly £3bn. Clearly, with the current equity value at £0.5bn and the debt trading at a discount, a purchaser will not have to find anything like the same amount. This is pretty obvious stuff.

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 23:32

Market debt market conditions were far better when they bid as well. With the wider fall out of Arcadia and Debs no chance now. Unless they put in 70% equity which would defeat the whole purpose of PE getting involved.

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 23:29

I only feel sorry for poor JW. What was he thinking swapping his crown jewels for the dross in INTU's portfolio. His lifes work down the $hitter.

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 23:27

I know, Brookfield are the only PE guys who can make this work. Orion, no chance.

[williamcooper104] 09/9/2019 23:26

If Brookfield (one of worlds largest real estate investors with better banking relationships than almost any other market participant) struggled with finance then I cannot see how another purchaser is going to fund it - in current market

[outlawinvestor] 09/9/2019 23:15

In the words of the greatest Liam that ever lived, "Dear [...], I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards – and good luck!"

[sentimentrules] 09/9/2019 22:11

The likes of Wig may be ok sitting on 34. No pressure on position. In fact it pays on the crud stories.

I feel sorry for those that get sucked in on zero-substance weekend stories.

Really shouldn't be allowed unless it is at a developed stage in the process

[propinv] 09/9/2019 21:55

FT poring cold water on Orion's interest this evening. Says it's "fantastical"

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 17:19

If someone offered 500mn for this the bod would take their offer. The value here is in the debt stack. Heck I think if they waited another 6 months they could get it for free, on the proviso the second half results are as bad as the first.

[steverabet] 09/9/2019 16:46

on the open market it would still only cost £500m or so (yes i know that would engender a hostile takeover with a price rise of sorts) even so one would have expected to have seen some stake building going on, which so far has yet to materialise. PE has a record of getting things on the cheap; delisting; refloating (loaded with massive debt) i think hammerson must consider themselves lucky to have dodged that bullet (mind you, you could also say similar of klepierre re hmso) intu looks like an ailing old dog with fleas - you can give it a bath and some medicine, but i suspect you can't get that much more life out of it

[sentimentrules] 09/9/2019 16:42

're sellers day....distribution day

Agree?

[sentimentrules] 09/9/2019 16:42

Volume sell side given day . Gap market negative

[colonel a] 09/9/2019 16:40

Who fancies trying to explain the price stability vs 10 million volume ?

[zccax77] 09/9/2019 14:00

Look at the comments by Stifel. £4.9bn of debt is the problem, do Orion have that type of firepower? Even bigger question is whether they have the competence. They own a lousy mall in Scotland and a few assets here and there.