Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 23:24

Ah fair enough. But if I look back a year here, will i see any bulls predicting It?

As important for them to see it coming, as a bear.

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 23:22

Thanks SR - just to confirm, none of the bears posting here today predicted what has happened over the last year..

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 23:21

Outlaw - I suspect the main data point the bears recalibrate to is the share price. I have little doubt that if the shares rise from here they will recalibrate again :)

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 23:20

Zcc - the only problems with your point are 1) they don't have to refinance the bonds today 2) your apr guess is, with due respect, probably bwollox. Given you repeatedly start your analysis with the assumption the equity is worth zero, it is hardly surprising to find that your scenarios fit the desired conclusion.

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 23:07

Check out a bear named 'Last Call'

I think it was LSE. January/February 2015, called Intu out as 20p by end of 2018.. gave all the reasons too. .The reasons were laughed alright, until September 16

Got the time a bit wrong but youll find the odd bear out there, on the ball when price is high.

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 22:49

That's ok eric - if you check the member profiles you will see nearly every single bear joined advfn in 2019. Pretty odd in itself. Just to confirm - none of them predicted what has happened over the last year, it's all post event commentary :)

[ericshunn] 29/8/2019 22:34

Apologies Wigwammer, relatively new to advfn but have been bearish on Intu for an eternity

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 22:32

Not many wiggy. But then not many bullish fundamentalists are either.

[outlawinvestor] 29/8/2019 22:28

It's only fair that opinions are recalibrated to the latest available datapoints.

[zccax77] 29/8/2019 22:27

If INTU went to refinance their entire portfolio today, what would the APR be? I am guessing 6-7%? how much will be left on the table for equity folders after the rent is paid each month? possibly £0?

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 22:23

How many of these bearish posters were making their points here this time last year? They enjoy fitting a narrative to a share chart after the event, but are they any good at predicting anything..

[ericshunn] 29/8/2019 22:00

Suspect sadly the doors to both the equity and debt markets are closed to Intu

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 21:51

Accounting fraud haha

[williamcooper104] 29/8/2019 21:50

They used to have multiple valuers - different ones for different assets which looked a little like value to order

[williamcooper104] 29/8/2019 21:49

It's a struggle now to get foreign lenders to lend to UK real estate due to brexit To get multiple lenders to lend to UK retail when the equity looks distressed - really not easy I think they would need to do a major equity raise first (which would be deepest of deep discounts) to raise confidence in debt capital markets

[ericshunn] 29/8/2019 21:44

Intu shopping centre valuation(s) are bunkum always have been. Bar Trafford, Lakeside, Metro and possibly Watford there is very little equity in the remaining centres if marked to current (distressed) sale price. Downward sloping income curve, probably in perpetuity, and a management which is seldom described as best in class more often worse, geared to the hilt in an unrefinacable sector what could possibly go wrong.

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 20:45

Could do wig. I guess just up to us all to assess if it's coming or not

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 20:42

Indeed. And intu has never been this cheap in its history. Perhaps it will 10 bag off the lows like EIG (another indebted RE group perceived at the lows as having an inadequate equity buffer). :)

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 20:14

Don't pity the Carillion sellers, to name but one.

No point looking to other stocks. This is intu. Unique as all are

[wigwammer] 29/8/2019 19:47

Jak - the narrative you tell is consensual and relies on misrepresenting reality and the content of my post. To repeat - intu's current valuation is unprecedented in its history. Point to a period where it has been cheaper? As for history repeating itself - history is replete with stocks perceived as having "insufficient cushion" that go on to recover and prosper. EIG etc etc. Perhaps history will repeat itself and you will miss out all over again..

[sentimentrules] 29/8/2019 14:33

If your US reits are heavily correlated to XLRE, keep an eye on 38.38...be a big caller medium to long term. Especially with bearish opens like today...(opened up)

[williamcooper104] 29/8/2019 14:27

Yep - better management and less risky - though not sure about quality of assets - have them on my list of stocks to look at once (if) brexit is sorted and I want to get back into sterling assets - at moment very happy in US REITs Mac or Kimco in the US are also way less risky than intu

[zccax77] 29/8/2019 14:13

NRR is less risky due to lower leverage and generally better quality management.