International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 09:10

Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris sees oil at $100 in 18 months, says he would buy airlines

[montyhedge] 06/5/2020 08:44

I see 125p what's the bull case? Surely no one in their right mind will fly until vaccine, no dividends for 3 years what I can see.At 125p, market cap 2.5 billion pounds, still generous.

[hamhamham1] 06/5/2020 08:17

Or maybe spamspamspam1?

[toon1966] 06/5/2020 07:58

Good luck with your M&S punt Ham, if you continue I may have to start calling you 'Spam' or 'Sir Rampalot' in homage to NY Boy!

[montyhedge] 06/5/2020 07:35

I see Norwegian raising money from shareholders 80% discount to shareprice.

[montyhedge] 06/5/2020 07:29

I think your right, at 100p market cap 2 billion pounds.

[azalea] 06/5/2020 06:15

Listening to the 5am business news with Sally Bundock this morning speaking to a very experienced American pilot who now runs his own business, it is very clear that airlines who do not go bust(and there are likely to be 40% worldwide out of a reported total of 800)are in for a very hard time. The speaker this morning stated that if pax pilots do not fly a minimum of 3 times a week they will lose there "currency". To regain it, they will have to spend time in a simulator which is very expensive to operate.

He also said that if the virus was only for a short time he would support governments bailing out airlines,but not otherwise.
We know that the Dutch government has said it would bail out KLM on condition it reduces air pollution levels of its aircraft. That can only mean they will have to buy new ones with more efficient cleaner engines.

Even the CEO of FEDEX on the programme expects a down turn in business, despite carrying and delivering X number of tons of medical supplies around the world.

.

[hamhamham1] 06/5/2020 05:52

I dabbled in Marks & Sparks yesterday, as "food sales representing 71% of UK sales and 50% of gross profit" according to the Credit Suisse recent double upgrade note.
Plus they got Ocado (which M&S now own 50% of the Ocado Uk delivery business) coming online soon and they own freehold on a lot of buildings.
Yikes, I sound like NYBoy.
Apologies.

investors.co.uk/companies/news/918062/ms-double-upgraded-and-next-downgraded-as-credit-suisse-rebalances-views-on-uk-retail-918062.html

Note, remove the space between proactive and investors to get link to work.

[sbb1x] 05/5/2020 22:42

Guys Lots of stuff on Twitter guys With regards to Norwegian air and air France being saved.Qatar and Ryanair cutting staff etc.Virgin leaving gatwick.This could easily touch 100 in coming sessions.Box clever and always protect capital!

[sbb1x] 05/5/2020 22:39

CLARIDA SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS GOING TO SURGE TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1940CHICAGO FED ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE JOBLESS RATE AS HIGH AS 34% IN APRIL... TO COMPARE:PEAK UNEMPLOYMENT WAS 24.9% DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 1933... https://t.co/xUclHH8fYe

[silkstag] 05/5/2020 21:24

Folks,
Q1) what loss will IAG have to admit on its balance sheet £24 bn + contracted £11 bn = £35 bn of planes?
A1) £10 bn plane write-downs and distressed sale losses.

Q2) What trading and redundancy loss will IAG make in 12 months to 31 March 2021?
A2) £6 bn.

Q3) IAG had £7 bn net assets at 31 December 2019. It lost £1 bn in Q1 2020. What net assets will it have at 31 March 2021?
A3) 7 - 1- 10 - 6 = - £10 bn net liabilities. Massively insolvent.

Q4) Are shareholders already under water i.e. 0 value for them?
A4) Yes. By about -£10 bn.

Q5) What will happen?
A5) Creditors will control the restructuring and shareholders will be left with a token 1-2% of peak valuation = 5-10p.

Q6) Why are IAG shareholders dead in the water?
A6) IAG has too much debt and way too much contracted planes. It was preparing aggressively for growth so it is hit way harder than others. The brutally sharp about turn will burn way more than its net assets. Sad but true.

MANDATORY SELL. Not a buy at 150p or 100p or 50p. Already 5 ft 11 inches underground. All imho. DYOR

[action] 05/5/2020 20:37

Mr Buffet came out of china 10 years a go if I remember correctly.

[action] 05/5/2020 20:36

Warren Buffet was correct as air travel may be unsafe for at least 2 years without vaccine. Also now they are worried about USA debt mountain. What will be next .

[sikhthetech] 05/5/2020 20:29

for me, this would begin to look like an interesting punt nearer to 150p...

[hamhamham1] 05/5/2020 19:28

Truth or rumour????

[silkstag] 05/5/2020 17:17

Mirror mirror on the wall,
Which FTSE 100 company fell today the most of them all?

[livewireplus] 05/5/2020 16:00

Emirates' Tim Clark: Coronavirus is a black swan event for the airline industry hTTps://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/emirates-tim-clark-coronavirus-is-a-black-swan-event-for-the-airline-industry-1.1015208 

[smartie6] 05/5/2020 15:53

Hope everyone is carrying a parachute.

[davethehorse] 05/5/2020 15:47

In freefall

[smartie6] 05/5/2020 15:35

You maybe right.

[montyhedge] 05/5/2020 15:34

They might had well put everything on hold until a vaccine found.I fly 5 times a year, won't fly now until vaccine.

[action] 05/5/2020 15:31

Air travel will not be possible even 6 ft apart as air conditioning in aircraft recirculate part of the same air.

[silkstag] 05/5/2020 15:29

FTSE +2%, IAG -3%.
Assume when FTSE -2%, IAG -5%.

50p = 29% of av 175p. So about 7 trading days to slide to 150p at average -4% per day. Allow an extra 7 trading days for dead cat bounces, gives 14 days. This is a crude estimate. But if it saves some ADVFN holders from throwing another 50p in the bin in the next 3 weeks then it is worthwhile. All imho DYOR.