International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[paa65] 18/3/2020 22:44

My point wasn't about Italy's higher death rate. It was about the lockdown not working. And even if it does slow death rate eventually, how do you ever lift the lockdown without the epidemic surging again?

[montyhedge] 18/3/2020 22:37

23% of Italians over 60 years, I think more vulnerability.

[paa65] 18/3/2020 22:28

From BBC news"Italy still waiting for a sign its lockdown has workedThe dire news from Italy is that despite a lockdown that has been in place for 10 days across the country, the death toll from this virus has continued to rise and rise.It increased by 475 on Wednesday, the biggest in one day since the outbreak began, with 319 of these deaths occuring in the northern region of Lombardy, which has been the worst-affected.Italian doctors had hoped to see infections slowing after a week of lockdown but that hasn't happened. Some say that only after two weeks - believed to be the maximum time period it takes for symptoms to show - will they truly be able to see if the virus's spread has been slowed by the drastic measures taken."

[m1k3y1] 18/3/2020 22:25

the more that are tested, the lower will be the mortality rate, they say.
I don't understand why they have not yet produced a street by street, UK wide map of areas where people have contracted the virus.

[dround87] 18/3/2020 22:03

Christ guys. There was a big jump today because they tested more people! Lots of people already infected. I personally know at least 2 who almost definitely have it and 1 who actually does have it and I don't live in london. 55k is a Conservative estimate IMHO.

[waikenchan] 18/3/2020 21:40

Another 20 / 30 % would be a good margin of safety.

Remember FY19 had 4billion in cash and cash like securities. Now Mcap is valued at cash. Obviously this is a ultra Conservative valuation and it now as simplistic as that as they have other assets - eg planes, equipment.

Suspect the amount of cash will be significantly lower now.

[m1k3y1] 18/3/2020 21:27

They need to prove the theory behind immunity first.
As yet, it remains unproven.

Great shame about Stobart air but I suspect there will be more.

[loganair] 18/3/2020 21:22

Connect Airways, the holding company behind Dublin-based Stobart Air, which operates the Aer Lingus Regional service, has fallen into administration in the UK, the Irish Independent has learned.

The move is linked to the recent collapse of Flybe. UK-based Flybe was also part of Connect Airways.

The administration means that accountancy firm EY now controls Connect and 49pc of Stobart Air. The other 51pc of Stobart Air is owned by its more than 400 staff.

Yesterday, Stobart Group, whose CEO is Warwick Brady, warned investors that it’s evaluating how to manage liabilities it has to Stobart Air.

"Given the current market conditions, additional liquidity is likely to be required and the group is actively reviewing the most appropriate sources of funds to cover the period during which the airport is affected by the Covid-19 virus," the company said.

But with confirmation to the Irish Independent from EY that Connect is in administration, it means Stobart Group is now on the hook for guarantees given in relation to a number of aircraft leases.

A subsidiary of Stobart Group, Propius, engineered a sale and leaseback of eight ATR turborprop aircraft to German firm Goal in 2017. The aircraft are used for the Aer Lingus Regional service. Lease agreements under the deal total $15.4m a year and are for 10 years, it was reported at the time.

There’s an option to terminate the agreement in 2023, although the trading update issued by Stobart Group yesterday suggests that the guarantees could be significantly more material.

The current Aer Lingus Regional franchise agreement Stobart Air has with Aer Lingus ends in 2022.

Propius received $62.7m from the sale of the aircraft, according to reports when the deal was done. However, it’s unclear where those proceeds ultimately ended up following the creation of Connect Airways in 2019.

[smithys2019] 18/3/2020 21:19

If immunity lasts. They know you are still immune after 28 days. They haven’t tested anything past that. That’s why flattening the curve may actually be a very rubbish idea.

[careful] 18/3/2020 21:12

Agreed testing is critical, I was just observing that there seem to be many people who have recovered untested.
they are starting a new test to see if you have had it and are no immune with antibodies.

They will be the new super race, those that have had it cured and immune.
The ultimate qualification.

[smithys2019] 18/3/2020 21:12

Looks like Stobart are next for administration. BA are the only horse in town realistically for UK regional travel.

Feel so sorry for them. Think their boss was on wake up to money about 2 weeks ago, said they had no liquidity problems.

hxxps://www.independent.ie/business/world/stobart-air-holding-company-falls-into-administration-39055641.html

[smithys2019] 18/3/2020 21:08

We have had a doubling of cases in something like 3-4 days. If that were to continue, uk population will be infected by the end of April. Get the impression that London will be hit hard.

[m1k3y1] 18/3/2020 20:53

yes, testing is critical. They are ramping up the testing in the states also.

[careful] 18/3/2020 20:48

Look at the fatalities.
Number of cases depend upon the number of tests.
not much use, more testing=more cases.

Their worst case assumption assumes a doubling every 2 weeks.
Sensational numbers if true.
Doubt it.

[m1k3y1] 18/3/2020 20:41

apparently they are expecting 1000 cases a week.
Saw it on a briefing last two days but haven't got a link, sorry

[smithys2019] 18/3/2020 20:35

Bit of a jump today in new cases over the past few days. If it continues to grow over the next three days, something with the isolation strategy there is not working. We need to start to see more cures over and above the infection rate to know they are getting a grip. 8% of medical staff in Italy now have been infected.

[smithys2019] 18/3/2020 18:42

No, they just pay over 1 billion in income tax and national Insurance per year though. They also contribute significantly to the 2 billion raised in airline passenger duty paid to HMG too.

[montyhedge] 18/3/2020 18:38

Tomorrow. Why you abroad has well.

[962962] 18/3/2020 18:23

When is your flight then

[montyhedge] 18/3/2020 18:21

11 rescue flights, last one Friday, then that's it.

[962962] 18/3/2020 18:19

Monty.How are easyjet getting you home.

[smartie6] 18/3/2020 18:19

I’ve just been tested and found out that I’m immune to the shxt that is posted on here.

[sr2day] 18/3/2020 18:18

there will be no bail out from the UK government for IAG who does not pay uk corporation tax.so don,t count on this.

[hamhamham1] 18/3/2020 18:13

Cash is king. Never more true.