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[demo trader] 12/12/2019 09:04

SOLD at 557p

ref. Analyst's forcast

Look at the Costain, 100% were on buy, down 15% today

[montyhedge] 12/12/2019 09:01

Should know ballot around 18th December must be a yes, pilots are greedy but not stupid.If Boris get a majority and pilots say they will accept then onwards to 625p.

[montyhedge] 12/12/2019 08:28

Soon be 575p coming days.

[m1k3y1] 12/12/2019 00:48

fj.....who takes any notice of analysts commentaries....other than maybe Goldman ?

[fjgooner] 11/12/2019 20:59

That would be nice, but I'm not sure. It's starting to feel that this has topped.

The Bloomberg commentary above is effectively suggesting that the airline sector is now looking ex-growth, hit by both negative sentiment (aka "flight shaming") and a coming glut in capacity.

Those brokers - always delayed - will presumably initiate downgrades over the following weeks.

[montyhedge] 11/12/2019 16:27

Not one broker has a sell on IAG.Take off soon boys.

[wilc42] 11/12/2019 13:44

Brilliant. Buy Airbus buy Boeing

[fjgooner] 11/12/2019 12:39

There was some more interesting airline industry commentary on Bloomberg this morning. And, sadly, little of it is positive.

According to the article, a "glut of new aircraft will expand airline capacity too fast" suggesting hard times may well be ahead for this sector.

That glut of supply may well meet a slump in demand as "global flight-shaming movement is another challenge".

Extract

Here’s How Miserable 2019 Was for the Airline Industry

By Christopher Jasper and Siddharth Vikram Philip
December 11, 2019, 9:30 AM GMT

# IATA lowers 2019 industry profit forecast by $2.1 billion
# Brexit, Max cloud outlook amid trade wars, flight-shame threat


Airline industry profits will come in lower than forecast this year as passenger numbers and cargo volumes are held back by slowing economic growth and global trade wars, the International Air Transport Association said.

With less than a month left in 2019, the trade body has lowered its annual profit estimate to $25.9 billion -- $2.1 billion less than it predicted in June, and almost $10 billion down from estimates published a year ago. Geopolitical tensions, social unrest and uncertainty around Brexit are contributing to tougher business conditions, IATA said.

The new figure equates to a 14% decline from last year. The group expects improvement in 2020, but there are some big caveats: Concern about carbon emissions is leading to tax proposals on airline fuel and may already be eating into demand for air travel in parts of Europe, and an uncertain return for the grounded Boeing Co. 737 Max further clouds the outlook.

Key Speakers at the International Air Transport Association Annual General Meeting
Alexandre de JuniacPhotographer: Jean Chung/Bloomberg
“The big question for 2020 is how capacity will develop, particularly when, as expected, the grounded 737 Max aircraft return to service and delayed deliveries arrive,” IATA Chief Executive Officer Alexandre de Juniac said.

While the narrow-body workhorse has been idled since March after two deadly crashes, Boeing has been busy making more. Hundreds of completed planes remain in storage while the U.S. manufacturer waits for regulators to clear the Max to fly again.

One worry is that a glut of new aircraft will expand airline capacity too fast, holding back fares and denting the forecasted rebound in earnings, which IATA now pegs at $29.3 billion for the coming year.

The global flight-shaming movement is another challenge for the industry, with changing passenger habits and a possible tax on airline fuel in Europe threatening industry profit.

[demo trader] 11/12/2019 10:12

575P On Friday (has to be this Friday)....Only if FT goes UP

SOCGEN RAISES IAG TO 'BUY' (HOLD) - PRICE TARGET 660 PENCE

[montyhedge] 11/12/2019 08:09

Be surprised if not 575p Friday morning.

[toon1966] 11/12/2019 07:57

Latest YouGov Poll for Sky News has the Tories with a majority of 28 seats, but there is a margin of error with could mean a 'hung' Parliament or a comfortable Tory majority. Read here:

[fjgooner] 10/12/2019 17:25

For those that have been toting huge rises for their stock based on big jumps in Sterling following a Conservative win in the general election, you may be in for a considerable disappointment according to Bloomberg today.

I've included in the extract below the best scenario - i.e. that for a Conservative Majority. See the full article for the others, but even the scenario for another hung Parliament is illustrated thus:

"Cable quickly falls to the 1.22-1.28 range seen before the withdrawal pact was agreed with the EU. Options suggest cable around 1.25"



U.K. Election Is One Pit Stop in Long Brexit Road for Pound, Markets

By Heather Burke, Laura Cooper, Richard Jones, Ven Ram, and Eddie van der Walt
December 10, 2019, 7:38 AM GMT

* Pound may struggle to rise above $1.32 even on Tory win
* Trade deal risks in 2020 may boost rate-cut odds above 50-50

Sterling’s rally will be limited even if U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins a parliamentary majority in the general election and finds a way to pass the withdrawal bill by Jan. 31. That’s because the clock is ticking on a trade agreement in a transition period that runs out at the end of 2020. Any longer-term economic and Brexit uncertainty can increase the chance of a Bank of England rate cut next year, which would weigh on the currency and prop up gilts.

Markets Live strategists and writers explore some of the many potential outcomes of the Dec. 12 vote, and how they would play out for U.K. assets:

Scenario 1: Conservative Majority
Result: Boris Johnson’s Conservatives get more than 325 seats in Parliament

Under this base case, cable struggles for further upside beyond 1.32 and EUR/GBP has a tough time making headway down toward the 0.83 handle. Gilts initially sell off, with 10-year fair value about 0.9%

Short-term sterling gains to sustain declines in the export-heavy FTSE 100, but its trajectory is also determined by U.S.-China trade talks and commodities.
Smaller, domestic U.K. companies may be some of the biggest beneficiaries

But this initial reaction is buffeted by the threat of a no-deal exit amid concerns over reaching a trade agreement next year, especially if the government takes a hard-nosed approach

Pound options are pricing 1.2815 downside risk, with a 68% certainty factor; this is also likely if the Tories win a wafer-thin majority. Further repricing of Brexit risks would send cable back to the 1.24-1.28 range that prevailed in 2Q/3Q 2019

Front-end rates will likely keep pricing of 50% odds of a 2020 rate cut. With a cliff-edge Brexit not out of the question and weak economic conditions, the Bank of England stays cautious

[fjgooner] 10/12/2019 16:47

Another fantasy filter?

Anyhow, you're completely wrong.

According to O’Leary these taxes will come from the airline's bottom line.

He said. “Taxation will defeat that purpose. It takes the money away we need to invest in new aircraft.”

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 16:45

Just passed on to passengers, I don't care what the tax is, still fly business with BA.

[fjgooner] 10/12/2019 16:35

@wilc42

The reason for airlines dipping is that the EU plans to impose a region-wide kerosene tax on air travel.

More info for you:



Airlines Hit Out at Jet-Fuel Tax Burden From Europe’s Green Deal
By Lyubov Pronina and Siddharth Vikram Philip
December 10, 2019, 3:19 PM GMT

Extract

Europe’s top airlines attacked EU plans to impose a region-wide kerosene tax as part of a sweeping new environmental strategy, calling the duty unnecessary and unfair and saying investment in sustainable fuels and electric planes would be more effective in reducing carbon emissions.

Chiefs of four of the region’s biggest carriers raised their concerns with European Union Transport Commissioner Adina-Ioana Valean in Brussels Tuesday, with Ryanair Holdings Plc’s Michael O’Leary leading criticism of measures set to be unveiled in the so-called Green Deal package this week.

Higher duties would do “untold economic damage” and represent a “tax grab” by governments, O’Leary said after the meeting. He spoke in his capacity as chairman of the Airlines for Europe lobby group, which said the session had been broadly positive. The heads of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, British Airways parent IAG SA and EasyJet Plc also met with Valean, who took over this month.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 13:39

They are greedy, but not stupid. They will vote yes.

[bobbybullet] 10/12/2019 12:22

Pilot vote closed 16th. Strong yes to except expected. Not sure it will move the price much though, already expected by the ii's.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 12:09

Glad I filled my boots at 541p got to take a risk. Hopefully a gift from the stock market gods.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 11:16

Oh ok, yesterday was 1m just at 1pm never ever seen that, proves know one knows what to do.

[knowing] 10/12/2019 10:57

Damn Apple must have bought in 😂 Guys PHTM Interims out today. Very encouraging.

[cyberian] 10/12/2019 10:54

monty there was a 1.1 million double wash "O" trade at 548p at the same time of 9.45.02 which has exaggerated the volume...so, really low volume so far today.

[wilc42] 10/12/2019 10:48

Who I ask for advice is nothing to do with you. Are you even employed. Given you are a labour supporter I have my doubts. Please do Filter me. But before you do, please understand that I have you down as a angry small little weasel.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:28

Volume better than yesterday, already over 3m but seems all bears.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:26

40 posts in 4 years wow you really got the hang of this now, lol