International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[w1ndjammer] 19/12/2019 13:25

NY Boy

bigger gains to be had with CWD more diversified, and overlooked

at least by the ADVFN crowd. i am already 60% up and its only just

starting, still an easy 300% next year.

WJ.

[ny boy] 19/12/2019 13:03

Monty...best have a look at (FOXT) after The Queen’s Speech, nice play post GE, dips being bought!

[wilc42] 19/12/2019 09:12

Aurigney is National airline of Guernsey. These guys are great and run a service that keeps the Channel Island linked to the Uk and mainland Europe.

[demo trader] 19/12/2019 06:42

Survey by Which? Megazine , from best to worst.

Full list of short-haul airlines (from best to worst)

1 Aurigny Air Services (82%)
2 Jet2
3 SAS Scandinavian Airlines


Aer Lingus
Swiss
Norwegian
Lufthansa
Eurowings
EasyJet
KLM
TAP Portugal
Flybe
TUI Airways
Wizz Air
British Airways (55%)
Vueling Airlines
Ryanair (44%)



Full list of long-haul airlines

1 Singapore Airlines (88%) best overall
2 Qatar Airways
3 Emirates

Virgin Atlantic
KLM
Air Transat
Thai Airways
Delta Airlines
TUI Airways
Qantas
United Airlines
Air Canada
Etihad Airways
British Airways (55%)
American Airlines (worst overall)

[m1k3y1] 17/12/2019 20:25

fj....."I bet he's a bright ray of sunshine at parties. :)".......LOL

[fjgooner] 17/12/2019 20:11

So I guess Alexandre de Juniac seems to be saying that:

Initially, airlines will be adversely affected because capacity will be too low and will impact total passenger miles flown (partially offset by increased margins);

and when the 737 Max aircraft return to service and delayed deliveries arrive:

Airlines will be adversely affected because capacity will be too high with total capacity expanding too fast (exacerbated by declining margins).

I bet he's a bright ray of sunshine at parties. :)

Of course airlines with no 737 Max exposure will not be impacted by the former case's negative aspects and may see slightly higher yields for a few weeks until the 737 Max's return to service.

[m1k3y1] 17/12/2019 19:43

fj......I have no idea but I do know that the likes of BA etc rarely get it wrong.

Seems he also said "Alexandre de Juniac, director general of Iata, said the latest delays to the plane’s return to commercial service meant airlines are adversely affected because of cancelled flights but the reduction in capacity could help improve yields"

[fjgooner] 17/12/2019 19:32

m1k3y1,

But Alexandre de Juniac, the IATA Chief Executive Officer, is concerned about capacity.

I wonder what does he factor into his negative view that you do not?

[m1k3y1] 17/12/2019 17:55

Cyberian......agree with your points but doubt it will return as the 737 max...maybe in another guise.

fj......I am not overly concerned about capacity.
The larger carriers will not complete on orders that they don't need and generally have a good oversight on options for aircraft in relation to future capacity.

Of course, the numerous A/C sitting in the dessert will testify as to the problem manufacturers have, when they commit to making X number of A/C and then find themselves sitting with them on their order books because they are not wanted.

[fjgooner] 17/12/2019 17:28

@Carter633 re post 12551

There was commentary on Bloomberg on December 11th concerning this.

According to the article, the Boeing 737 Max issue may well result in a "glut of new aircraft that will expand airline capacity too fast" suggesting hard times may well be ahead for this sector.

That glut of supply may well meet a slump in demand as "global flight-shaming movement is another challenge".

Relevant Extract

----------------

.... Concern about carbon emissions is leading to tax proposals on airline fuel and may already be eating into demand for air travel in parts of Europe, and an uncertain return for the grounded Boeing Co. 737 Max further clouds the outlook.

"The big question for 2020 is how capacity will develop, particularly when, as expected, the grounded 737 Max aircraft return to service and delayed deliveries arrive," IATA Chief Executive Officer Alexandre de Juniac said.

While the narrow-body workhorse has been idled since March after two deadly crashes, Boeing has been busy making more. Hundreds of completed planes remain in storage while the U.S. manufacturer waits for regulators to clear the Max to fly again.

One worry is that a glut of new aircraft will expand airline capacity too fast, holding back fares and denting the forecasted rebound in earnings, which IATA now pegs at $29.3 billion for the coming year.

[cyberian] 17/12/2019 15:41

m1k3y1...one has to be careful with ones words on this issue but pretty apparent that there maybe some legal proceedings involved in time. We all have seen much reported evidence of what is more than simple oversight, and perhaps worse between the regulator and Boeing, however, nothing will now be left to chance and thank goodness a higher level of accountability will prevail. When all is sorted the 737-800 Max, will return as one of the safest models available...tried and tested at a level almost to the extreme, as all planes should be.

[cyberian] 17/12/2019 14:50

Story somewhere (maybe Bloomberg) suggested that a number of HK based airlines will go bankrupt and a lot of redundancies will be seen...even some China based airlines are in trouble. I guess IAG/BA will be looking to pick-up any fairly new planes that become available...leasing companies also carry large inventories that can be tapped into when more planes are needed. BA certainly needs to upgrade its fleet and certain that management are addressing this need. The 737-800 Max debacle is very sad and sure that huge effort and expertise is being triggered to get the manufacturer (Boeing) problem sorted with maximum safety element totally transparent and immediate. There will certainly be NO short-cuts or compromise until the airlines are 150% satisfied over safety issues with the regulator sign-off after their apparent/alleged unacceptable conduct.

[toon1966] 17/12/2019 14:20

Carter I suspect much of todays fall is down to profit taking and the potential for the UK leaving the EU without a deal. You may want to read this article in the Telegraph - "What Boeing's 737 Max production halt means for airlines – and passengers" -

[carter633] 17/12/2019 12:26

Boeing are suspending the production of the Boeing 737Max. Having 400 useless aircraft in storage, they've finally made the decision to stop building more ... but airline stocks as well as aircraft part suppliers have been hit and all down around 2% or more. Odd why IAG has been hit seeming as they have none in the fleet.. suppose that shows some investors actually have no clue about the airline groups fleet etc.

[qantas] 17/12/2019 12:24

Shares of Boeing suppliers Senior and Melrose fell after the aircraft maker said it was suspending production of its controversial 737 MAX passenger jet. British Airways owner International Airlines Group, which signed a letter of intent to buy 200 Max jets, and Ryanair, which has ordered 135 Max planes, were also both in the red.

[badtime] 17/12/2019 12:07

Montys in Barbados or a Butlins I can't remember which

[m1k3y1] 17/12/2019 11:24

I guess this is now going to be like the DJ and Chump.
Up one day and down the next with rumours from BoJo for 2020.

[ny boy] 17/12/2019 09:43

Monty, you should have a look at (UPGS) solid recovery play, one of the few retailers that’s been doing well for a while. Chart technicals excellent and on a breakout.

[wilc42] 17/12/2019 09:36

I'm tempted

[m1k3y1] 17/12/2019 09:24

Profit taking...
and maybe this ...

[lufty] 17/12/2019 09:09

The union agreeing to the pay deal and also more importantly the possibility of a No Deal Brexit are the two factors

[wilc42] 17/12/2019 08:41

The first 40 minutes of trading makes no sense? Any ideas

[chiefbrody] 16/12/2019 22:31

Yup no doubt UK market cheap as chips after the battering of the last few years. Remember when it was half the Dow not so long ago. Now less than a quarter. IAG really should be circa 1000p but the market prices it as if the next disaster is tomorrow.

[cyberian] 16/12/2019 21:56

The BALPA announcement came after hours at 16.36, so maybe we could bounce higher tomorrow...sure Easyjet and Ryan Air historically always trade at a higher P/E ratio, but IAG could or should bridge that gap even by a modest level...it would help. Personally not sure that the settlement is priced into the market already...look at the shock on Boris Johnson's face when the Election Exit poll forecast was released on Thursday at 10.00pm....a huge majority and to a large degree some unexpected gains. ...5 years of relative free hand over an opposition that is currently in total dis-array. Here at BA we have a wonderful 3 year window to blend the team together better and make further gains in the industry...it may take a few more days to sink in but cash generation/earnings boost/excellent dividend policy are all plus factors, with flight bookings more assured with this 9 to 1 favourable vote for the deal. I am relieved with my own future bookings and sense time to look forward, and move on from what has been quite an uncertain and difficult period. Paying customers want certainty and IAG/BA are back on the front foot, thankfully.
Finally a re-rating may take a while but any fall in the share price will be met with more buying, particularly from the major Institutions......the UK market in a lot of sectors has been overlooked/under-valued (hence huge catch-up over the last 2 days, and cash is looking for assured returns.

[watfordhornet] 16/12/2019 21:45

Priced in already unfortunately. May get an initial bounce from PI's 1st thing but will not do much tomorrow