Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 25/4/2007 09:50

looks igoe has found this website has all the info you need .




and this is useful too

[wjccghcc] 24/4/2007 22:25

Not really. Actividentity have their problems but EDS and IGP haven't partnered in the past AFAIK whereas EDS and Actividentity have worked together on many projects including the 3mm DoD cards over the past few years. Actividentity doesn't appear to be involved in any HSPD-12 contracts outside their EDS partnership.

The Actividentity solution involves middleware as well which competes directly with Oracle, Verisign, RSA, Cybertrust, Gemalto and ORC. What this means is that with the failure of Bell ID to win any HSPD-12 business, those partners will be far more likely to partner with IGP for the much bigger state and corporate business.

Interesting comment on the fact that GSA is only guaranteeing takeup of 10,000 cards although clearly they hope it will achieve much wider takeup.

"BearingPoint spokesman Steve Lunceford said the McLean, Va.-based company pulled out of the new competition just before pricing proposals were due April 11, citing "an unacceptable level of risk."

The contract called for a multimillion-dollar investment for supplying up to 420,000 cards, but GSA had only guaranteed payment for 10,000 cards, Lunceford said. The agency also included a clause in which it could terminate the contract for any reason at any time and didn't have any firm commitments from agencies to use the contract, he added."

[igoe104] 24/4/2007 18:28

I find it amazing that actividentity software, is involved as much as igp,s. its well outdated, igp is a much better version. Maybe its a home town call, with being a usa company.

Think its time to chill, out and watch some football, with a couple of beers.

[wjccghcc] 24/4/2007 18:17

Not that surprising given that EDS and Actividentity work together on the DoD cards.

To summarise, that pretty much divides the Federal smartcard programs into:

DoD, GSA SSP (42 agencies), and 2 individual agencies (Dep of Veteran Affairs and TSA) are EDS/Actividentity

IBM/Gemalto/RSA/Verisign/Lockheed/Cybertrust/ORC all with IGP have TWIC, NBC SSP (18 agencies), and 7 other individual agencies including the White House and Social Security. Plus the undetailed Federal Defence and Aerospace programs mentioned in the trading statement.

2 small agencies with Xtec.

About 10 agencies undecided and others who may break away from the GSA.


While Actividentity has more agencies, most of the GSA ones are small so on number of agency HSPD-12 cards, both Actividentity and IGP have about 40% market share. On top of that, IGP have 750k-1.5mm TWIC cards which will be HSPD-12 compliant so IGP's share of cards to be issued is in the region of 50-60% which isn't bad for a £18mm UK company.

That means IGP will eventually be involved in about 3mm HSPD-12 cards over the next 2-3 years which, assuming $4-5 per card is $15mm revenue over that period.

[igoe104] 24/4/2007 17:45

GSA taps EDS to run its HSPD-12 managed-service office. doesn,t look good news, with activeidentity involved.

http://www.fcw.com/article102544-04-24-07-Web

EDS' team includes L1 Identity Solutions to provide enrollment services, ActiveIdentity to provide card management software, Entrust to provide the public-key infrastructure piece and Oberthur Card Systems to provide the HSPD-12 compliant cards, industry sources said.

[wjccghcc] 24/4/2007 17:42

EDS appear to have won the GSA SSP contract for 420k HSPD-12 cards (IBM/Intercede have the other SSP contract with the NBC). It looks like EDS are sticking with Actividentity who provided the CMS on their original bid last August.

On the other hand, the fact that Gemalto have lost both TWIC and the GSA may well damage their relationship with Bell ID who now have no HSPD-12 contracts. Gemalto's only HSPD-12 wins are with IGP - there's a good chance Gemalto now jetison Bell and go with IGP for the US states and corporates which will be much bigger than the federal market.

[jailbird] 23/4/2007 13:47

i missed the RNS on the 19th about holdings...


looking the list do we more on board

approx 65% or 22M held below


Major Shareholders
Intercede Group PLC


Major ShareholdersShares in issue:34.0m1p OrdsName Amount % Holding
Richard Arthur Parris marker 5,196,951 15.30
Pershing Keen Noms Ltd(dup) 3,240,794 9.54
Plastic Technologies Ltd 3,147,436 9.27
Vidacos Nominees Ltd 2,278,330 6.71
Cogefin (Bermuda) Ltd 1,582,541 4.66
Jacques Tredoux marker 1,463,216 4.31
Euroclear Nominees 1,440,988 4.24
React Invest Ltd 1,344,683 3.96
Andrew Michael Walker marker 1,248,077 3.67
Jayne Kathryn Murphy 1,215,281 3.58
Other DirectorsName Amount % Holding
Royston Hoggarth marker 168,721 0.497
Jurek Stefan Sikorski marker 84,416 0.249

[taurusthebear] 23/4/2007 13:39

jailbird - as it easily can be when there's no meaningful PE ratio to justify any perceived value. But a price in the 40s will give this a market cap. under 15m. It could just be that a market downturn hitting IGP further will be a blessing in disguise for those who want to top up and think the outlook over the next couple of years is a lot more rosy than the market seems to have priced in. :0)

[jailbird] 23/4/2007 13:33

tb,

i will also be a buyer again sub 50p but i do want to add now..but i found it is to buy then to sell..so i will wait..with go MAY aproaching..and the mkt is very high, i am a bit cautious...even though with the decent figures i feel this will still do well on a down mkt..i feel this is should not be affected by any downturns in the economies...but sentiment is sometimes more a driver of stocks

[taurusthebear] 23/4/2007 13:27

Hmmm, a steady trickle down in price and interest here. I wonder when the buyers will appear. I'd be interested below 50p, and given that we're about to enter the summer doldrums, I'd say the results will have to have a pretty spectacular forward-looking statement to wake this market up. Even the major indeces at new highs can't wake this one up. The market doesn't seem to like jam tomorrow stories (unless they're call BPRG, PDX etc. etc.) :0)

[igoe104] 20/4/2007 12:30

MORE DETAILS, on usa border cards.

[igoe104] 20/4/2007 12:11

Sector news.



won,t be long before cross-border cards, are out.

[pork belly] 19/4/2007 17:22

just checking in one one of my favourites for the second half of 2007

[taurusthebear] 19/4/2007 13:38

Well, the story's certainly gotten more bullish in the last 200 days, IMO! :0)

[jailbird] 19/4/2007 13:35

not sure any of u follow charts but 50MA and 200MA are gonna cross soon..which is very bullish ..and i THINK if the 200MA is rising when it crosses is very positive.

This is what is happening here.

[wjccghcc] 19/4/2007 12:29

rambutan is right.

In the US alone, pretty much all of which will be based on HSPD-12 qualified CMS (of which IGP mkt share approx 50%):

HSPD-12 = 1.8mm federal employees + 3-4mm contractors on an ongoing basis.
TWIC = 750-850k workers expanding to 2-3mm for port visitors
State employees = 5mm+
First responder = ?'000k
Frequent visitor = ?'000k
Real ID = 200mm
US corporates = ?mm

Then add in the likely growth in the financial (soon we'll all need a smartcard for online banking) and healthcare sectors, not to mention the UK ID card and I suspect revenues won't be plateauing for a long time although I'm sure there will be the odd blip depending on project timing.

[jailbird] 19/4/2007 12:24

yes rambutan,

you are right, saturation is way off...i always thinking of current projects.

[rambutan2] 19/4/2007 12:12

jailbird,

the idea is that we are only at the tip of the iceberg when it comes to potential growth in the smart card security mkt. i wouldn't worry about saturation in 2-3yrs.

[jailbird] 19/4/2007 12:02

thanks for the reply,

ok the clears a few things up, but what was getting me was once that all the are licenses that are issued, which is quite large considering the projects which are ongoing, i can see decent revenues, but obvioulsy these will not all come at once but over time...and then mucher smaller revenues will come in for new employees/contractors as and when they start...so my concern is once the all or nearly all the cards have been issued, the recurring revenue will be small,about 20% of the license cost compared with the the rollout of the many licences.

So is it fair to say we can expect decent growth over 2/3 years but eventually we will reach saturation(id f that is right word) of number of large license deals..so future revenue after that will be small in comparison?

Will the long term re-curring revenues be good enough....personally i feel
we probably be ought out by thnen..

[wjccghcc] 19/4/2007 10:42

jailbird, it depends on the contract and arrangement with their partners - also is it an OEM agreement or not.

Generally, they get paid on a per license issued basis. e.g. each HSPD-12 card costs approx $120. Of that, say, $6 goes to the CMS provider. If it's IGP alone, they'd get it all but if it's through an OEM provider like RSA card manager or Verisign it would be a proportion of that. Clearly, their revenue per card reduces with size of the contract. For the UK ID card, you'd be talking pence rather than pounds per card.

Sometime they get a payment up front (e.g. RSA paying them $2mm over 3 years for RSA card manager) but usually it's at the backend of a contract. That means that while they're winning lots of contracts, the revenues may not be received until the cards are actually issued. Given that many bigger schemes involve pilots you could be looking at 2-4 years after they start working on a project and that's why revenue growth has lagged their position in the industry.

Regarding recurring revenues, I think they aim for annual maintenance of about 20% of the license cost. Also, clearly as new employees/contractors join, further cards will need to be issued on an ongoing basis.

Personally, I expect significant growth in revenues to kick off in H2 this year as the HSPD-12 issuance ramps up towards the end of the year. TWIC will probably be more in 2008 given the technology revamp and required testing. The individual states and US corporate business will take longer as they've been waiting for the HSPD-12 standards before moving forward.

[jailbird] 19/4/2007 08:52

WJ,

sorry for the questions but a few are bugging me

can u enlighten me on how this business model works with regsrds to revenues.

They initially make money by selling a licence for an employee..do we know how much this licence is old for?

for e.g gemalto have take 500,000 myID recently but do we have figures.
What is the upfront fee taken for..initial licenses with more to follow i'm assuming?

How do IGP intend to covert these contracts into long term revenues...
are how are IGP likely to see a re-curring revenues steam

[wjccghcc] 17/4/2007 16:00

I suspect Lockheed were excluded because they have their hands full with TWIC which will require all their attention to get on track.

EDS are most likely but I wouldn't be surprised if Bearingpoint nixed the pricing to make sure they keep the contract - after all they have significant reputation riding on it whereas EDS already does the DoD.

On actual numbers of federal employees (ignoring TWIC), I'd estimate MyID will currently be used for about 50% since they are involved with many of the larger agencies (e.g. Social Security). The GSA 42 agency contract is currently for about 25% of federal employees but that is likely to reduce as the bigger agencies in that group work out what they want from HSPD-12 and go their own way. The other point to remember is that TWIC is getting on for 50% of the size of the entire HSPD-12 program - i.e. a lot more significant than the GSA.

I think you'll find IGP has moved beyond HSPD-12 in any case with their attention more being on the individual states and corporates which are a much larger market. The preferred supplier status of Verisign for Pennsylvania and the recent First Responder RSA news shows where the US is heading. I also see that Thales have had their CMS FIPS approved - it is also based on MyID . Thales haven't been targeting the federal market but it shows the requirement of FIPS approval to go after the corporate and state business.

[3 wheels on my wagon] 17/4/2007 14:19

I agree igoe, I think XTec is too small. Have you ever read a predicion in a newspaper (ie: Miami Herald) that hasn't turned out to be duff information, to give everyone a bum steer?