Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 29/4/2008 17:19

APD or WJC,

any views on the working capital requirements that may be needed for the 10 major projects...it has been bugging me.

But as long as the company is cashflow positive/generating cash, i see no concerns
of cash.

[aphrodites] 29/4/2008 17:16

Howdy

This share has been at 75p and was walked down by inside selling ahead of the placement.

The price has taken a long time to recover because the institution who took up the major part of the placement has been seen selling in the market. Playing stupid games like that has not helped the share price at all.

The correct price now is probably around the 50p level and for a company like this any would be predator will have to pay far more than a 25-40% premium.

237

On the evidence of the last statemeent I agree it should not need more money. In fact if the FD came back again he really will have got his figures wrong. But who knows what they might need in the expanding market they operate in!

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 17:02

As usual you talk sense.

[237gmoney] 29/4/2008 16:53

I dont think the company will be bought out for a while as the shareholder register suggests no one of any clout is picking up stock of any large amounts. It would be a shock if the company were bought out this year at least.

The negotiations with RSA over a new contract must nearly be starting and hopefully there will be a down payment to boost the balance sheet. Another £0.5m would be nice to start with but im just picking at figures in the sky...

I think the cash position is strong so there should be no need for any funds but I will be keen to see the Cap Ex in H2 with all these projects underway. Time lag in sales revenue should mean H1 2008 will make very interesting reading.

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 16:45

I think Andrew Walker is in a stronger position now with the good news flow on projects and the sellers out the way. As for a £1 bid, a bidder may have to pay that if the stock was at 70p now, but usually a 25-40% premium is enough to get shareholder approval, resulting in a 50-60p bid probably being enough now?

Depends on whether the stock remains in the market, or gets suspended?

[aphrodites] 29/4/2008 16:38

scab

If you look back at my post of 8 April and thereafter you will see I posted that we had been approached by a MM asking where we would sell in size when the price was around 35p on offer.

We said we would offer 50k at 40p but he did not oblige.

I also posted that we thought there was a buyer sniffing around in the market trying to buy in size.

On the back of that and when the MM's attempted to bring the price back we went into the market and bought another 25,000 shares, 10k at 32p and 15k at 33p. It was almost impossible to buy stock then.

Also in the weak markets of February we bought very large size when it was offered under 30p. It was easy then but after that I would defy anyone to have bought in any larger size than 25k. We have been on the look out for reasonable size every day and it has just not been there.

To try and buy 75k you would have to pay over 45p.

In fact we would not even offer that size at 50p because we know we would not be able to buy it back.

We think the price will be above that in the next couple of weeks and in a takeover situation the shares would be around £1. And we would not be surprised to see an agreed bid around that level.

Lots and lots to play for here as long as the F.D. doesn't make another silly placement!!!

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 16:26

I have a price target of 1.19 when my stake is worth £250k. Will start reducing then. If it takes years to get there, thats just fine.

[237gmoney] 29/4/2008 16:24

The last months chart is starting to look very good indeed. brings us back to October 2006....those were the good ol' days!

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 16:22

Another tick up again on tiny volumes. Something is going on. The MM's do not want to part with their stock, even if they have any.

I'll eat my hat if we don't see another blue day tomorrow. And I am no chartist but we are looking good for 45p???

[237gmoney] 29/4/2008 16:22

Howdy, I disagree, 25k lumps are usually ok. you might have to pay a little over the asking price but depending on which broker you get you should be able to get the offer price. If the MM's leave the price as it after the 25k then try again the average for the three trades will only be slightly over the original price you wanted in the 1st place

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 16:17

75k. You have to get there in 5k chunks. As igoe says as you start buying the price will rise, and it may attract a couple of sellers then you can accumulate in bigger transactions mopping up the liquidity. It's like a game of chess when the liquidity is this thin. In any event, you can't go much wrong on this. Too many strong upward influences.

[igoe104] 29/4/2008 16:08

IT look me over a day to get 34,000 shares in one go, a couple of months ago.
if the mm,s can,t supply the stock this will have to jump up further until a seller comes along.

i reckon 40p could be a big temptation for weak holders, so mm,s push it up and you might get some business.

ps im looking for £1.20 + it will also depends on what state the company are at that stage as well.

[scab] 29/4/2008 16:05

tried for 75k.

[237gmoney] 29/4/2008 15:56

Scab you wont be able to buy large amounts of this stock at a decent price so better to buy in smaller packets. More posters are starting to appear every day now which is good and the wind of news on UK ID cards and the 9 other projects IGP are in will no doubt bring others to the table soon enough.

The problem with low liquidity companies is they are very volitile and at the moment this is heading north as the graph suggests with what could be a double bottom or a 'w' and now with positive news around the corner, and full year results due, we should see very good times ahead. Here's hoping anyway.

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 15:56

10 deals or 10 projects. You are right.

[jailbird] 29/4/2008 15:55

To put this in perspective, the Group is currently involved in
significant work on over 10 major projects whereas, as recently as 2 years ago,
Intercede was typically only working on 2 major projects at a time.

howdy, not sure about 10 deal being negotiated. more like 10 major projects
that have been signed by their partners..correct me if i'm wrong here, but
that is how i read it.

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 15:53

209236 shares.

[sa0705] 29/4/2008 15:51

HDD

whats a meaningful stake?

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 15:51

I know. You have to pick up whatever you can get. Took me days to accumulate a meaningful stake but it was worth it.

[sa0705] 29/4/2008 15:50

how large a chunk?

[scab] 29/4/2008 15:46

tried to buy large chunk ,----no luck,mm's won't sell.

[smartmoney100] 29/4/2008 15:04

Scab, I've held for over two years now. It does feel as though our days in the sunshine are fast approaching!

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 14:57

And there goes another tick north, as if by magic. lol.

[howdy do da] 29/4/2008 14:56

scab, the consensus is this is going north. We have more company guidance within a month, 10 deals being negotiated, low liquidity with no obvious large sellers and a mkt cap of £13m within a growth sector. Management are top notch too.

[sa0705] 29/4/2008 14:34

well ive added a tad more via a SB.