Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 05/12/2023 15:21

"This order, with an aggregate value in excess of $8 million, with all the licence element of this contract being recognised in the Group's financial year ending 31 March 2024 ("FY24")"

Wow

& some text about 'developing further' !!

[smithie6] 05/12/2023 15:16

$6.6m

!!!!!

:-0

-------

I've been busy today....so that has been a nice surprise.
(I did post the other day that some work was being done for new client in USA Govt....the possibilities were there to see in the recent past RNSs
....I haven't read today's RNS yet.

[devonlad] 05/12/2023 14:48

Not surprised, a lot of that $6.6m drops straight onto the bottom line given the margins. What could have looked a bit expensive now looks quite a lot cheaper!

[ianhamo] 05/12/2023 14:46

Yep seems to be moving quite nicely now.

[marktime1231] 05/12/2023 14:24

Wow. Well done Intercede, £5M+ of immediate license fee revenue for little incremental efffort, exceptional indeed, the warning suggests orders on this scale are unlikely to be repeated. The share price I can see has now jumped in to the 90's.

So someone has secured a large US federal agency competitive order using MyID CMS as part of the bid, effectively reselling for Intercede. And so were a number of the losing contenders. Which makes you think MyID is the value differentiator. The prime contractor will realise this is a competitive advantage.

[devonlad] 05/12/2023 14:16

Doubt it, the news is out. No wonder the directors were loading themselves up to the eyeballs!

[ianhamo] 05/12/2023 14:11

Is it possible to restate the RNS tomorrow if the need is felt?

[devonlad] 05/12/2023 14:10

Trading resumed!

[robow] 05/12/2023 14:09

Group now expects financial performance will be significantly ahead of market expectations for FY24*.

[devonlad] 05/12/2023 14:08

Market isssues, lse is effectively closed to trading for small caps. Showing 86/91 on ig. This looks to be decent news to say the least!

[smithie6] 04/12/2023 08:59

USA Govt likes the IGP solutions

From the interim results
"- Multiple MyID PIV licence orders including from the US Department of State (DoS) for its Identity Management System (IDMS) solution totalling $0.9 million."

"- Several major customers have chosen to upgrade their existing MyID deployments including, but not limited to, ..............., a key US government agency and US Department of Transportation"

"- Professional services continue to grow and embeds the symbiotic relationship with our clients and cadence of upgrades and new deployments"

"New deployments", ...

=====

& from the RNS on 7th Nov
"- Renewal of a sizable Support and Maintenance contract with a major US Federal Agency, with renewal increasing in monetary terms by approximately 45%."

+45% !!
======

& in Europe
"The new EU cybersecurity NIS2 (Network and Information Security) regulation is being passed into statute in several EU countries and will form a key catalyst on cybersecurity purchasing patterns across the EU in the years ahead, particularly for the small and medium business market."
:-)

(The vast majority of Intercede's business comes from the USA. If Intercede can grow in Europe (it will) because this new cybersecurity regulation is imposed & Govts & companies must spend money to meet the new regulation (as per USA) & Intercede are experts in the sector with products used by the USA Govt then the future looks rosy for Intercede).

[smithie6] 04/12/2023 08:48

C'mon Intercede start going up again !

I wonder how that work for a USA Govt agency is going ? ;-)

RNS 21/11/2023
"Commencement of professional services for a new deployment with a significant US Federal Agency;"

(They have a prior contract with a USA Govt agency, it's massive !
...3-3. Million $ if my memory is correct. This seems to be with a different part of the USA Govt. Am I hoping it's another big contract, at some time ? Yes !

(With big contracts as long as the installation can be automated to a degree (or a lot of it phps done by the client !) Then the profit is of course very impressive.
(For a contract for say £50k, the % of the price used for IGP labour/training/presentations/contract is much higher imo)

----
Professional services"
So, I assume that means consultancy. Looks at the client's needs, propose the best solution, educate/consult with the client......perhaps set up a trial.....& hopefully the client then places an order.

..."significant federal agency"

Federal agencies are usually big. USA is~300-350 million ppl I think. About the same as the EU.
The existing federal agency contact is 3-3.5 million $ if my memory is correct.

The next day to the interims & the news giving contract news including this federal agency info the chairman bt 100k more shares. £70k .

[smithie6] 30/11/2023 12:50

Keeps getting hit with buy trades

Day after day

& despite a big rise...it keeps going up...

imo those are good buy signals.

(& that they keep winning more renewals & new contracts !)

[ianhamo] 28/11/2023 17:30

Some hefty delayed trades just gone through!

[smithie6] 27/11/2023 10:07

Not even 1 sale so far today, versus about 6 buys.

[somerset lad] 24/11/2023 21:07

I'm not convinced anything is brewing. It may be that the strong share price movement just reflects investors thinking through the operational gearing involved in IGP growing revenues at a decent clip and keeping costs under control. There's a huge gap ("jaws") between GM and operating margin that provides an opportunity for significant operating margin expansion if the revenue growth comes through.

IGP said “The ambition over the next 3-4 years is to double revenues" through organic growth and M&A. Purely for discussion (DYOR as always), let's take TTM numbers of £13.0m revenue, £934k PBT, £1.65m PAT and think what IGP might look like in 3.5 years time.

Assume organic revenue growth of 12% p/a(IGP’s management is pretty conservative, so I expect they’re aiming for something materially better than 10%, more like 15-20%, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves) for 3.5 years. £13.0m TTM revenue x 1.12 ^^ 3.5 = £19.3m.

Assume costs growth of 6% p/a (with the vast majority of sales through partners, inflation falling and management very focused on cost, they might well come in below 6%). £12.066m TTM costs x 1.06 ^^ 3.5 = £14.8m.

Annualised PBT in 3.5 years from organic growth = £19.3m - £14.8m = £4.5m.

If IGP’s objective of doubling revenue in 3-4 years is to be met, it would need (on the assumptions of 12% revenue and 6% costs growth) to add £6.7m revenue through acquisition (£13.0m x 2 – £19.3m). (I appreciate that the aim of "doubling" revenue is broad brush, so using £6.7m is clearly spurious precision.) If we assume a post-merger operating margin of 15% on the £6.7m of hypothetical assumed revenue for the acquired business, this adds PBT of £1.0m, taking the PBT in 3.5 years to £5.5m (£4.5m organic + £1.0m acquired).

(The purchase price for a business that adds PBT of £1.0m post synergies might be 13x or £13.0m, assuming that the synergies are significant. IGP currently has £9.7m gross cash and is generating cash (usually) ahead of earnings. It’s clearly beneficial for IGP to have net cash on the balance sheet because it provides assurance to large counterparties and partners, but it went into debt with the CLN so, if the acquisition opportunity arises in the near term on relatively depressed valuations, IGP could borrow modestly short term or raise a small slug of equity to support an acquisition at £13.0m.)

Returning to the hypothesised PBT in 3.5 years of £5.5m, I’ll assume a tax rate of zero given the current large tax payments to IGP and the tax losses that are carried forward, giving a conservatively stated fully diluted EPS (using 62.4m shares) in 3.5 years time at 8.8p.

You can pick your own PE on this hypothetical for a business that’s growing at a decent clip, generating lots of cash and benefiting from strong operational gearing.

[ianhamo] 24/11/2023 16:27

Something brewing

[ianhamo] 22/11/2023 18:15

Approximately 1 million shares traded over the last 2 days, surely someone must have crossed a threshold.

[smithie6] 22/11/2023 17:06

marktime1231 wrote
"Don't get why super gross margin turns in to a modest net profit,......."

Really !!??

....well, from the gross profit they have to pay a lot of costs including for the workers, office leasing, the directors, auditors etc, so no surprise that the net profit is much lower.

[pyman] 21/11/2023 15:18

goes to show how geared they are... 0.5mill and whizz! lets hope sales keep coming in ... then float US .....

[ianhamo] 21/11/2023 14:11

I can't remember seeing such high volume of trading before. Hopefully large shareholders are upping their stake. Maybe some new institutions buying in as well.

[marktime1231] 21/11/2023 13:24

A hat-trick of good news, trading well ahead of plan at half way, bumper orders etc. Don't get why super gross margin turns in to a modest net profit, this is a company with £10M in the bank and cash rolling in, answers on a postcard please.

The share price responding well this morning but it feels like there is much further to go here.

[marktime1231] 07/11/2023 11:55

Excellent news after excellent news, this will be in the tipster columns and on the watch list of the likes of the naked trader. Keep touting yourself as a leading provider of in demand services in a big market, stuffed with cash and more orders than you have capacity for. An offer on the table soon would be no surprise.

[ianhamo] 30/10/2023 08:43

I was just going by the link I posted. It shows Cazoo at 250 with MC of $16m. I did think it was low entry.