Sorry rambutan, only just read your post. Thanks for the info re ensigninfosecurity. |
About to break out higher methinks |
whats we this mornings move ? Has this been tipped somewhere ? |
Cavendish note out, 5% rev increase and 3% eps for FY25. Don't buy it myself, seeing as on average 62.5% drops to the bottom line they seem to be massively low-balling the situation. Expect at least another 30% eps 'surprise' before the financial year completes. Nice to derisk anyway. |
What good news, albeit not unexpected. And still 3mths before y/e.
WJCC, likely Singapore, as you mentioned recently.
And I'm reckoning the provider is
If so, where Singapore leads, others in the region often follow... |
$$$$$$$$$ earner... as the pound goes down... up goes IGP earnings |
4*
Intercede Group, the leading cybersecurity software company specialising in digital identities, issued a positive update this morning noting continued momentum in the business with further contract orders and renewals worth over $5m in aggregate being signed during the month of December 2024. The new contract wins and renewals combined...
...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/IGP/1121 |
Until the ahead of conclusion, this all read a little wimpy for something on such a multiple. Suspect it will drift back now. |
boom.. this will fly this year |
FY ahead of expectations after $5mm of orders and renewals signed in December and the first major Asia government contract AFAIK. Also first subscription for SecureVault at $250k p.a. which shows how large this product could be and how much it could transform their subscription based revenue. More importantly, it's contracted through Asia's leading cybersecurity provider which means they're now going to be in pole position for a lot more Asia clients as governments step up their cybersecurity.
Well done Klaas and Intercede! |
Us treasury hack.. not a client of IGP?. If not...soon? |
Top tip for 2025? |
They were last time. |
Hopefully IGP will be involved with this!https://news.sky.com/story/the-uk-is-an-outlier-by-not-taking-up-id-research-finds-as-tony-blair-calls-for-digital-card-shake-up-13273946 |
Plus a first mention of Singapore. |
Yes, very upbeat. I hadn't previously quite understood the potential of the Riverbird partnership, Microsoft Entra is yet to kick in, SecureVault appears interesting, and noting that both Entra and SecureVault have come about due to client requests. There are still big US govt deals in the pipeline, and also UK govt stuff and a first mention I can remember of Australian and NZ govt potential. Anything landed from now until Y/E drops straight to the bottom line as costs already covered by 1st half. |
Very upbeat results presentation on IMC. Well worth watching the replay when it's available. |
 100p seems a bit harsh. Cavendish upgraded this year's forecast to 4.8p after the interims so that would be a PE of 20 on earnings that are pretty much in the bag (since they don't have the large federal contracts in forecasts until they're awarded) and that ignores the 26p of cash. Take out the interest income, apply a PE of 20 and add back the 26p cash and you get 110p which also seems a very miserly rating for a global leader in their space with Europe/APAC yet to adopt secure credential management like the US government.
There is single digit $mm GSA contract to come (if they win it but it is the only large federal agency they don't have) and double digit DoD rollout of licenses to come this year or next but as you say, they have little visibility on contract timings.
Personally, I always thought 140-150p was fair value without these contracts given their double digit underlying growth and materially higher weighted pipeline vs last year. Once the DoD starts rolling out, this will be back to 200p IMHO, but that could be this year or next. |
Broker raised their PT from 140 to 200? |
Way over valued |
It's not harsh at all, on 21/11/23 they were trading at 71p and reported H1 EPS of 2.7p & ahead of expectations trading. They then won a large perceptual license deal and still the market wasn't that bothered, with shares holding at under 100p. It was only when the final results landed that PI's got excited and drove shares up to all time highs on basic EPS of 10.3p.
This year is likely to see a more than 50% fall in EPS, yet shares were trading at 37x PER going into the results. The lack of an upgrade was a surprise to me, as I've no idea what the company were doing wasting their cash on a share buyback if they knew H2 revenue was on track to be below H1 (£16.1m forecast, so H2 must be on track for £7.5m at present).
Plenty will have profits to protect here, so I wouldn't be surprised to see retest £1 in the next few months if they don't win any material contracts. |
seems harsh |
That will depend on conversion of the materially increased weighted pipeline. There are two very large Federal projects (GSA and DoD rollout) due but the timing is out of their control. If one of them lands before the year end there will be a significant beat, otherwise it will likely be next year. |
Too much expectation by investors - many were hoping for an outlook upgrade...... |
Results look good.Why the drop? |
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