Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[wahlberg] 25/8/2017 11:42

Also InnovaDerma posted on their linkedin account "UK followers - check out the August issue of Cosmetics Business to read up about the new trends in the UK haircare market. Innovaderma Founder & CEO Haris Chaudhry talks about ROOTS DOUBLE EFFECT, our exciting new hair & scalp care brand and the over arching trends in the UK haircare market. "

[wahlberg] 25/8/2017 11:38

Just seen Katie Fissenden has posted an update about Stevie K on linkedin.I've shared on twitter,"Super excited for the next 5 months.. so many big projects in the works and a heap of new (killer) collections"etc.HC stated this brand will be "quite significant"

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 25/8/2017 10:44

I guess a product like roots takes months to have a recognisable efffect.
Unlike skinny tan where someone could apply the product and in the next day or two be online or talking to friends praising the product.

I think roots will take longer to gain traction via social media partly for this reason.

Personally i wouldnt mind seeing a greater ad spend on roots than just relying on the (proven) skinny tan method.

We just need to be patient and what will be will be.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 25/8/2017 08:26

Hard to disagree there boon. That shelf space will surely mean they expect to sell more than one a week. Plus dont forget this an exclusive deal once again with superdrug. So im really hopeful they sell more than 400(currently) per week from our reteal sales side.
Ill report tomorrow about my local superdrug. See whats what.

[richieboy2828] 25/8/2017 08:20

In Superdrug in Oxford Street Roots is on the bottom shelf. From tracking orders on the Superdrug website and the Roots website it hasn't sold very many yet which is only to be expected for an unknown new brand. Hopefully Superdrug and Roots will keep pushing the social media marketing to create brand awareness but I do think it will take a while to get traction.

[jam4u2] 25/8/2017 08:19

boon, I dont know myself, but I am just taking into account that we are targetting a niche market and at a premium price and so on that basis I am being conservative. Superdrug need to get behind the product and 'do their bit' and we should see it grow.

[boonboon] 25/8/2017 06:54

I don't profess to know much about average turnover of a product in a store like Superdrug, but I think if they're putting four £10 products on the shelf, the top shelf by all accounts I would expect them to be confident of selling more than one a week. After all that's only one a month per product/shelf space. I can see them accepting that sort of turnover for higher priced items, but not for such a moderately priced item. I could off course be wrong and bow down to people with superior retail knowledge.

[jam4u2] 24/8/2017 23:29

Evening folks,

Just a quick comment on the numbers etc.

Croas, another channel to add the is the School of Beauty was it?

Re Roots, I think one per day per branch maybe a bit over-optimistic initially. I am going with one per week per branch.

On the H1 numbers, I think we should recognise that H1 typically is 'less busier' than H2 owing to the seasonality of ST. However, we now have new channels and new products and so I rather hope this would compensate for it. Lets not forget too, that the start up costs will be higher as we launch each of the new products so I am expecting net profit to remain stable and/or see a modest growth.

I dont think we will see much of an incrase in revs as he has pretty much reported it already in the pre-close update. But do agree we should get an operational update. We havent had a trading update (I dont think) for August. I hope he keeps the monthly updates coming.

IDP - a story in the making!

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 24/8/2017 18:05

The fact that roots might be moving alpercin off the best shelf space in music to my ears.
Come on boys and girls.. we need more superdrug reports.
I'll try and pop into town again at the weekend.

[boonboon] 24/8/2017 17:21

That's good about Roots being on the top shelf that's good visibility. Whenever I've seen body glow it's been on the bottom shelf, there is a lot of competition in the skin care segment. However last time I went body glow was in both the skin care aisle and the tanning aisle.

[croasdalelfc] 24/8/2017 17:12

I was in London today and popped into a SD to check it out.It was a smallish SD with a typical busy London clientele.ST: only 7 boxes on display, the rest sold out! I asked the assistant about stock and she offered to check stock in the back of store. They had the new Instant Tanner shimmer - one bottle! I also noted each box was sealed and security tagged which isn't the case in my local backwater Superdrug.Roots: 4 products on display on the top shelf. I noted that they have replaced the Alpecin stock - Alpecin stock tickets where stuck behind the Roots tickets! I wondered whether they had moved the Alpecin stock but could only find one one product on the bottom shelf.Body Glow: in the skin care section on the bottom shelf - low visibility

[boonboon] 24/8/2017 16:00

The directors have about 6million between them mostly held by Haris . Not sure about institutions

[divinessence] 24/8/2017 15:52

Does anyone know how many shares in freefloat? C.6 million?

[divinessence] 24/8/2017 15:36

Difficult buy, 1000 order failed so changed to 900 and eventually got it. There just isn't much stock here. They are hoping to get a few sells, not happening. When it does buyers jump in.

[dmk1198] 24/8/2017 14:50

surely weak pound is making us and our products even more attractive/cheaper to in all non-uk markets

[boonboon] 24/8/2017 13:52

Skin brightening is the enigma at the moment. To a certain extent we can track skinny tan, Stevie k, Charles and Lee and roots. Information on the skin brightening range is a lot harder to find. Yet it is potentially the biggest market.

[robward] 24/8/2017 13:44

Hi Croasdalefc
I can certainly follow your logic and I sincerely hope your forecast is spot on !!

[wahlberg] 24/8/2017 13:42

Bronzing market in the UK was estimated at £60m in 2014; Skinny Tan sales approximately £7mMarket size in the US? $1bn.Yet, the estimated size of the anti-aging skin brightening market in the same year?China $620mThailand $430mTaiwan $334metc.And those exclude face masks.If you fail to grasp the size of the opportunity here you are an idiot.

[croasdalelfc] 24/8/2017 13:40

:)) Quant - good win last nightI think we will see new product extensions for Body Glow and Skinny Tan for a Xmas campaign in skincare and bronzingAlso I wonder if IDP will announce the purchase of the last 10% of Skinny Tan in the results ?

[quant_investor] 24/8/2017 13:37

The old forecast from Hybridian Was for sales of £14.1m, pretax profit of £2.56m and eps of 14.5p.

So Croasdale's turnover estimate of £8m for H1 is indeed somewhat above market expectations I have access to.

Such optimism is not uncommon from a Liverpool fan but hopefully it really "is going to be our year" for IDP :-)

HC has stated to intends to under-promise and over-deliver and so the estimates are far from fanciful.

I'm particularly interested in the product / territory mix as it should hsve a significant bearing on the earnings multiple the company will attract.

[wahlberg] 24/8/2017 13:36

And?I didn't say it should be £30 right now, but I'm confident it will get there.Simple PEG ratio should see us above £10 in 2018. Did I mention that FY17 sales were achieved largely from Skinny Tan, and predominantly in the UK - a small part of the bronzing market?And now we're going to see that growth curve replicated across several multi billion £ markets - skin care, cosmetics, PE, hair loss etc.

[croasdalelfc] 24/8/2017 12:57

Rob / thanks for the view - always good to have balanced opinions .I think revenue for H2 went something like Jan 800kFeb 750kMar 900kApr 1000kMay 1100kJune 1250kTotal : 5800k Based on my tracked sales and extra products for sale and new product extensions I would hope that the next six months would be at least:1250k x 6 = £7.5mCertainly July was a very good month and August has been the same. We might see a slow down in sales in Sept and Oct as the tanning season ends but I doubt sales will drop below 1000k a month. Then we get to Black Monday and Xmas.All the growth drivers I mentioned in my previous long post this morning were not present in Jan Feb and Mar and we have more to come in Q1 and Q2.Hopefully we will get a whole load of detail in the results , a great forward looking statement and an upgrade by Finncap :)))

[robward] 24/8/2017 09:24

Hi Croasdalefc
Thanks for all your efforts in tracking St sales etc and your excellent posts.

With reference to post 8278, I have a slightly different take......

HYB originally forecast Y/E 2017 9m t/o 1.21 pbt 7.66 eps

FINN go with 8.8m t/o 1 pbt 4.7 eps

Innovaderma themselves go with 9m t/o (approx) and 1.28m pbt

I think Idp figures will be as stated in their TU which of course are better than forecast from FINN, hence beating forecast.

Your t/o estimate for 6 months to Dec 2017 appears very optimistic given that IDP did 3.2m for 6 months to Dec 2016 and FINN forecast for full year turnover is for an uplift of just over 50%. I would be happy with 5m turnover for 6 months to Dec 2017 and if IDP came in with 8m i would be adding to my position.

Share price wise....who knows but I hope to enjoy the rise !!

Thanks again for all your input

Regards

Rob