Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[argylerich] 24/9/2018 15:58

Agreed Losos, patience required as always ;-)

[losos] 24/9/2018 10:20

ArgyleRich - "although the price isn't exactly reflecting the reducing shorts!"

I think it's significant these guys are reducing down below threashold, but the good news is still 10 to 12 months away so the price ain't gonna move a lot until the 'in flight' revenues start to come in.

Over the years I've noticed Mr. Market is all too willing to slash when bad news hits but will not do the opposite with good news until it's well and truly embedded in the numbers haha.

[argylerich] 22/9/2018 12:56

Hi Ortis, yup, both Worldquant and AHL have dropped below threashold now, with AQR reducing. Only Old Mutual swimming against the tide now, although the price isn't exactly reflecting the reducing shorts! ;-)

[ortis23] 21/9/2018 20:27

Argylerich; so worldquant dropped below threshold. Interesting jostling of positions that is diminishing.

[losos] 20/9/2018 18:46

wynmck - CEO been doing the media rounds - on Ian King (Sky News) this evening. A more detailed explanation on the dividend cut. Tie up with Panasonic must be good. Allegedly able to install broadband capability very quickly in many airlines (already fitted in Air New Zealand.)

I think we all knew these things were comming and despite his optimism it will still take months (even years) to fit out every airline assuming they all go with ISAT

I thought there would be a more positive response from the market, maybe they are saying "We've heard it all before, show me the numbers" haha.

I'm not trading these, still underwater a tad, might be good news comming, just a question of WHEN haha.

[argylerich] 20/9/2018 13:38

Old Mutual have still been happily increasing their short while the others have been trimming back slightly.

[wynmck] 20/9/2018 13:04

CEO was on cnbc this morning....search on cnbc street signs for short video

[bluemango] 20/9/2018 12:49

Utterly extraordinary after positive news like this morning's, for the price to actually be currently down on the day (after a good reaction this morning)

Edit: Seems others thought so too, price is recovering slightly since I posted the above.

[argylerich] 18/9/2018 06:58

Shorters have a difference of opinion here,some reducing and going below notifiable threshold, some increasing. Currently at 2.4% declared shorts.

[ortis23] 12/9/2018 18:15

Good insider article on aircraft hardware installation progress. The next positive news could well be official EAN launch.

hxxps://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2018/09/10/workaround-to-linefit-highlighted-as-gx-fitted-to-qatar-airways-777s/

[cbird2018] 12/9/2018 17:06

I got involved at 5.78 and I'm seriously considering getting out as I don't see anything positive that can drive this up again in the near future. Can see it drop back down to 400 if Ligado doesn't come to fruition, and languish there for quite some time.

Any views from LTH

[argylerich] 12/9/2018 06:14

AQR continue to unwind their short position and Och-Ziff have dropped below notifiable threshold. Total declared shorts now at 2.26%

[argylerich] 05/9/2018 07:36

Worldquant have increased again to 0.61%. Total declared shorts now at 2.94%

[argylerich] 04/9/2018 11:19

More info on the RBC downgrade courtesy of FT Alphaville:



BE
Quick bit of sellside. RBC's chucked in the towel on Inmarsat.


Inmarsat PLC (ISAT:LSE): Last: 523.20, down 23.6 (-4.32%), High: 540.20, Low: 520.80, Volume: 1.43m

11:58 am
BE
RBC was very keen on the bid theory before it arrived, and kept the faith after it failed ......

BE
..... but they've been watching the skies:

BE
"We believe Inmarsat has given up on wholesaling its fourth GX satellite (I5-F4) to the Chinese government. The satellite had been located at 117 East (over China) for several months while it conducted 'testing' with Inmarsat previously saying "the situation is highly commercially sensitive". However, with Inmarsat having been approached by a US buyer, satellite tracking now indicates it has moved to 11 East (over Europe/Africa). Management said on the 2Q call that there was a possible alternative use for the satellite, which we believe is most likely to be aviation/government. If this is the case it may lead to long term value creation, but we think the market is very unlikely to give the company credit (unless there is a substantial new contract announcement) given its track record to date in aviation. By comparison, we had estimated the value of a Chinese wholesale deal would have been an incremental c. £1 per share. If we assume the market had factored in a 30% probability of it being used in China, the downside risk is c.30p / 5%."


BE
Also, they've flipflopped on Ligado, the US hybrid network thing that might or might not monkey around with military GPS.

BE
"In our earlier note (Per ardua as astra, 9 July) we argued that Ligado's amendment filing appeared to be backed by Government agencies and the GPS community (many of which had signed settlement agreements with Ligado). However, a review of the FCC submissions is deeply concerning with widespread concern over interference. Critically, many of the same GPS operators have cited the need to adhere to the so-called "1 dB IPC" test rather than an easier user-based test which Ligado prefers. The issue is highly contentious and technically complex, however we now believe the probability of FCC approval has significantly reduced"

BE
So while Echostar might plausibly come back, which puts a floor under Inmarsat stock, the good news seems to be lacking right now.

[volsung] 04/9/2018 09:40

650p wud be nice

[argylerich] 04/9/2018 08:11

RBC downgrade. Still rated as Sector Performer but target reduced from 725.00 to 650.00.

[argylerich] 01/9/2018 12:54

Worldquant have appeared on the scene with a 0.52% short.

[ortis23] 29/8/2018 12:37

Good overview of Ligado situation. There is *a lot* of opposition.

hxxps://insidegnss.com/ligado-fight-comes-down-to-choice-of-interference-standard/

[argylerich] 28/8/2018 15:10

AQR have reduced their short further, now stands at 0.87%. Total declared @ 2.33%

[the original goldbug] 28/8/2018 10:41

It’s smells like someone is slowing accumulating but reluctant to be aggressive.

[ortis23] 27/8/2018 07:34

I wonder how the Galileo issues will affect Inmarsat.

1 it seems Inmarsat have been involved for many years and have a contract to manage some of the Galileo services. If UK companies are 'restricted' how would that work?

2 the proposal of a UK alternative is a multi billion £ project. The announced £100 million scoping project must surely include Inmarsat.

[9degrees] 26/8/2018 15:38

interesting articles in sunday telegraph re the UK satellite industry starting on page 1 article . Not specific to Inmarsat.

[bluemango] 23/8/2018 21:51

Aggregate short position down to 2.45%, the lowest since Jan 2017, 18 months ago.

[zcaprd7] 20/8/2018 09:17

English here:https://www.telecompaper.com/news/inmarsat-granted-belgian-permit-for-ean-ground-stations--1256621Must be a right ball ache receiving a silly legal challenge in every country from your competitors...