Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[w1ndjammer] 11/12/2017 14:51

badger

presumably you liked what you researched..........

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badger60 - 07 Dec 2017 - 09:42:06 - 2653 of 2697 Inmarsat...a new issue that is profitable, with a decent yield. - ISAT
It cost me £850 to cut my losses here......Currently up £16k, £7k and £4k on PMO, HUR and OPR respectively, so I'm not losing too much sleep over it.........

[badger60] 11/12/2017 14:42

#2691I think that you are missing the point. It's all very well and good sputniking away £2bn on launching a statalight.......it's all about how much that you're going to make out of it......and looking at ISAT's debt/earnings/profit.........not a lot.......

[w1ndjammer] 11/12/2017 14:36

hmm Jefferies are giving Buy 1000p

WJ.

[al101uk] 11/12/2017 14:07

Interesting to listen to Broker questions in the Q3 results presentation. Many of the Analysts were basically asking management "What should I put in my model?" with only a couple that actually sounded like they had any idea of how to value the business.

There was one standout analyst in there who, to me, seemed to ask good questions and be knowledgeable on the company.

Interesting that, with all of the "dividend cut" stories out there, no one bothered to mention it as an issue either in the main presentation, nor the Q&A.

I agree with badger60 that in general terms borrowing to pay dividends is a bad idea, but there are situations where it's permissible. Those situations include where the company has a firm idea of where they want their debt to equity ratio to come in and situations where the medium term future sees the company returning to growth. Both of these apply to Inmarsat.

So given that:

1) The brokers didn't question the dividend
2) There is a clear strategy where margin declines were forecast and advised of ahead of time.
3) The company has beat expectations for four quarters straight.
4) Most of the brokers appeared to be scrambling for information to model the company.
5) There is clear guidance on the debt profile and how it is being managed.
6) The one thing everyone appears to agree on is that the company will return to growth around 2019.

I don't think it's too difficult to take the company at their word and ignore the white noise.

I took a position on the fall to about 490p, despite my positive view, I'll leave momentum to do it's think before considering a top up.

The broker, for what it's worth was Jefferies, although I agree with Barclays in that there is execution risk here and that needs to be priced in.

[penycae] 11/12/2017 14:06

Looks as if someone bought just under 8.5 million of these around noon today.
Stupid boy..........

[wallywoo] 11/12/2017 14:06

I did not say that, it just a chart thing. The only time this was at this level, there were no resistance or support levels created until you hit 400p.

I think this is good value, just that the odds are it won't about turn until it approaches that level

[wskill] 11/12/2017 13:51

So ISAT is overvalued then when it's market cap is around the cost of buying 1 sat and launching it ,Pull the other one it's got bells on it.

[wallywoo] 11/12/2017 13:49

windjammer: I agree, looks to be no support until 400p now. When I last looked in here I thought it would probably test that level. Will come back in a month or 2 when reached!

[badger60] 11/12/2017 13:22

Unfortunately, borrowing to service debt and divi is not healthy, especially in a competitive environment where margins are being squeezed/regulated and a company which is run by inept incompetents. Imo a 70% divi cut will be needed to meaningfully help reduce debt and balance the books.......along with a complete clear out of the incumbent management...I think that we will see Numis' 400pps well before Goldman's 580pps......

[w1ndjammer] 11/12/2017 13:15

they could be looking for 400p where it bounced around December 2011
i am still building my position for a 5 year hold so will buy more.

Did the same with Shell and BP

WJ.

[steeplejack] 11/12/2017 13:12

It's interesting this one.The real problem is not with the company's products,it's more a consideration of how sustainable are industry margins in a competitive environment.One thing is certain,the management have been pursuing an unduly generous dividend policy.The dividend is uncovered (a rule of thumb might suggest it should be covered at least twice) and of course,there's the more pertinent cash flow implications.The current dividend of 53.96cents equates to a full year payout of 40.37p at current xrate.Thus,at £4,the Numis target,the shares would be on a current yield of over 10%.The market would appear to be suggesting that the dividend could be halved ie something around 20p but I still favour that the company will cut the final by a third to give 21.62 cents,similar to the interim.When,Aviva bit the bullet and slashed the dividend,a nadir was reached and the price recovered swiftly.Come early March and the dividend decision,we'll see.Whatever happens,the market thinks the company should slash the dividend.

[badger60] 11/12/2017 13:09

.........or next week, for it to go sub 430pps?....

[badger60] 11/12/2017 13:05

Why not wait til it goes sub 450p later today'?

[badger60] 11/12/2017 13:03

Fill yer boots!

[w1ndjammer] 11/12/2017 12:58

well i have bought more, long term hold no other company can compete
with the technology that inmarsat uses. when your life is on the line you need
the best, when your business is on the wifi you need the best,,,,,,,,,

WJ.

[zcaprd7] 11/12/2017 12:58

Topped up (again) very weak though...

[badger60] 11/12/2017 12:53

Oh dear......

[w1ndjammer] 11/12/2017 12:41

Award-winning broadband
“With our global GX Aviation service already in commercial service, and our Pan European offering, the European Aviation Network, starting the final phase of operational launch by the end of 2017, our progress in the market shows no sign of slowing. As more and more airlines go live with our connectivity services, we’re looking forward to seeing passengers experiencing Inmarsat’s award-winning broadband in the sky.

[w1ndjammer] 11/12/2017 12:31

Inmarsat voted World’s Leading Inflight Internet Service Provider
11 December 2017: Inmarsat has been crowned the ‘World’s Leading Inflight Internet Service Provider’, marking the end of another breakthrough year for its next generation GX Aviation and European Aviation Network (EAN) Wi-Fi solutions for airline passengers.



WJ.

[badger60] 11/12/2017 12:28

There's a huge debt pile to be inherited/financed/paid for by any suitor and the margins do not justify the price tag, especially given the awful mess that the incumbent management have created for the company. There's not much point in owning the "damaged Bismarck" of the industry....... which is only just about capeable of operating in ever decreasing circles......