Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 01/12/2017 15:37

EchoStar buying Inmarsat is logical

December 1, 2017


Satellite operator EchoStar, controlled by Charlie Ergen, is sitting on a cash pile of a huge $2.8 billion (€2.36bn), plus another $500 million of marketable securities, and is currently not doing anything with this ‘war chest’.

Equity analysts at investment bank Jefferies have carried out a study to examine whether a hypothetical bid for Inmarsat might now make sense. Helping their rationale is a fall in Inmarsat’s share price which the bank says “now outweighs the evident dis-synergies and clunking industrial logic of a bid from EchoStar. The ‘earnings penalty’ from holding so much cash must now also be unbearable for EchoStar shareholders.”

“We believe there is merit in doing the merger analysis. We conclude that a £10 per share offer balances all interests (though we estimate EchoStar could bid as high as £15 and still see year 3 Free Cash Flow per share accretion pre-synergies). Our analysis suggests the urge to finally ‘pull the trigger’ on an offer must be becoming overwhelming.”

The bank stresses that its discussion is hypothetical and “is not based on non-public information / confirmation from the issuer or another party, and does not otherwise reference an impermissible rumour.”

The bank adds that it could see EchoStar paying up to a 30 per cent premium for Inmarsat, or even more in order to secure the business.

[losos] 01/12/2017 12:29

RCTurner2 - "Indeed it is. I have loaded up here in the belief that the market has got this wrong. Time will tell if I have made a mistake or not."

Not my biggest holding but close. Personally I think the problem is that the really big cash generator is the in flight broadband and we are still 12 to 18 months away from that. So it's an easy one for the bears to get stuck into.

There does not appear to be anything wrong with the company but likewise there is no immediate good news to shout about. As you say "Time will tell" :-)

[kamitora] 01/12/2017 12:09

Jeffries has a note out speculating about an EchoStar 'merger' at a bid price of 1000-1500. Target is 1000. Will post a link if I find one.

[bluemango] 01/12/2017 11:25

The short positions monitored by shorttracker are historic, latest changes as of 3 working days ago so worth bearing in mind that small delay when looking at trading and price activity.

ISAT is my highest riser today, which makes a pleasant change.

[steeplejack] 01/12/2017 11:23

Hopefully not a dead cat bounce

[chancer] 01/12/2017 11:19

Has inmarsat just launched a rocket attached to the share chart ?

[wskill] 01/12/2017 10:28

Yes the shorts seem to selling many small orders to try and get back in control with their algos the hardware ISAT supply has improved by leaps and bounds over the past few years I no longer have to try and get the best sat signal by twiddling with the controls it is all done ashore now and the internet is always there very good kit in comparison with other suppliers this is why I am an investor in ISAT it is the best in class.

[w1ndjammer] 01/12/2017 10:22

MOL and JSAT MOBILE succeed in ‘Visualization at Sea’ using Inmarsat Fleet Xpress
01 December 2017: Inmarsat Fleet Xpress has been part of a recent trial to enable the events recorded by a ship’s ‘black box’ to be shared and stored in real-time ashore, in a major safety enhancement that also overcomes an obstacle blocking progress towards remote vessel operations.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (MOL) and JSAT MOBILE Communications Inc. (JSAT MOBILE) acknowledged that the high-capacity, high-speed satellite service has been integral in a shipboard trial onboard a MOL vessel that looks to build a network to share live Voyage Data Recorder (VDR) data, in a project the shipping line has dubbed ‘Visualization at Sea’.

VDRs are used to record vessel movements and positions, voice communications on the bridge, image data on nautical instruments, and a ship’s Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS). Today, they are mandatory for larger vessels and passenger ships plying international waters.

Critical tool
Like flight recorders, the VDR is a critical tool for accident investigators. Conventionally, VDR data has not been available to shore personnel during a voyage, but is accumulated onboard and stored using a secondary medium, such as a disk drive. The new solution connects the VDR to a shipboard VPN router, for connectivity ashore via Fleet Xpress.

“Fleet Xpress has opened the way to monitor VDRs in real-time ashore,” says Ronald Spithout, President of Inmarsat Maritime.

“This means that shore-based staff who know a vessel’s navigation status in real time will be better able to offer remote support, in a clear enhancement to safety. Live sharing will also mean that inputs from nautical instruments or the main engine could be integrated with the shore-based ECDIS to optimize routing.”

Safety benefit
MOL and JSAT MOBILE point out that, should an incident occur, reproducing the vessel’s subsequent movements via the land-based ECDIS, and confirming voice transmissions and radar images, offers a further critical safety benefit, while live information also allows the cause of the incident to be determined more quickly.

The shipowner and JSAT MOBILE say that that they see the ‘Visualization at Sea’ project as a major step towards future remote vessel operation technology, adding that there are plans to adopt the approach

Contact

[w1ndjammer] 01/12/2017 10:22

OOOooops double post

[w1ndjammer] 01/12/2017 10:18

looking better this morning, when you think about what they operate and all the
hardware / software, regardless of profit this should be trading a double this SP
just think what it would cost a company starting from scratch to get to ISAT level

takeover target,you bet it is....

WJ.

[chrisdgb] 01/12/2017 10:00

You would have to think at this level there must be interest in the company.........../??

[wskill] 01/12/2017 09:51

Well we are off to the race's today no matter what their short positions are takeover talk resurfacing?

[steeplejack] 01/12/2017 09:44

Disclosed positions in INMARSAT PLC (ISAT)Fund % short change Date changedAHL Partners LLP 0.58% -0.05% 24 Nov 2017Paloma Partners Management Company 0.59% -0.01% 2 Nov 2017BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited 0.79% -0.02% 21 Nov 2017OLD MUTUAL GLOBAL INVESTORS (UK) LTD 1.00% 0.10% 21 Nov 2017Millennium International Management LP 1.31% 0.06% 28 Nov 2017Marshall Wace LLP 1.36% -0.04% 22 Nov 2017AQR Capital Management, LLC 2.51% 0.11% 27 Nov 2017Total 8.14%

[zcaprd7] 01/12/2017 09:24

They have the big shiny building on old street roundabout, they moved in way before Shoreditch was trendy...

[bluemango] 01/12/2017 08:31

New high short position, 8.14%.

Feels rather like the madness with the bitcoin bubble.

[dexdringle] 30/11/2017 10:20

zcaprd7 - ehhh ?

[wskill] 30/11/2017 10:19

£7 may look like a good buy if ISAT get taken over as I cannot see anything wrong with the company at present and can only surmise that it's being put play by the hedgies.

[zcaprd7] 30/11/2017 10:12

They are quite a symbolic representation of "silicon" roundabout in Shoreditch, and that might irk some mandarin?

[wskill] 30/11/2017 09:38

If isat is not a good takeover candidate then I don't know who is , a decent divided whilst waiting also what is not to like.

[rcturner2] 30/11/2017 07:36

The low pound also makes these types of company more attractive.

Two of my best long term investments were Amlin and Catlin, both got taken out by overseas companies simply to get hold of the cash flow and dividends.

LGEN is another that I expect may get taken over by someone from abroad.

[kamitora] 29/11/2017 18:51

At the risk of repeating what I posted a few days ago - SoftBank were linked to them over the summer and the directors were evidently open to discussions. Recent director buys conversely give the short players some confidence of no imminent planned takeover announcement, but the directors might well feel an ARM-like deal with SoftBank could be a good one that doesn't immediately threaten their jobs. As for whether SoftBank would actually be interested is more of an open question, but even at a premium ISAT is sadly pocket change to them and their managed funds at this point.

As for national strategic interest, I think that gets rolled out with the Chinese but I doubt the Japanese are going to be seen as a problem. Also, the paradox of the 'national strategic interest' position is somewhat undermined by the country's desperate need to do trade deals with just about anyone at this point. Can a British government really afford to alienate the Chinese or the Japanese?

[wad collector] 29/11/2017 16:53

I think the word takeover is overused in fallen shares. I think it would depend who wanted to take it over. North Korea?

[frazboy] 29/11/2017 14:09

Takeover.... does anyone consider that realistic? Is this one of those companies that might be considered to have national strategic interest!? I'm a holder here, but I thought I would raise the point, see if anyone had an opinion.

[bluemango] 29/11/2017 11:35

Not over 10%. With slight reduction in AHL Partners' position, aggregate short is now a fraction down from yesterday, 7.82%.