Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[geckotheglorious] 06/9/2022 09:32

Wskill
"if they cannot make money in a house price boom"

Isn't such reliant on permitting and planning consent not being dragged out then put on hold due to Nimbyism?

[wskill] 06/9/2022 09:22

Not too sure INL are much good at the housebuilding game reading the last results if they cannot make money in a house price Boom they will never make money.

[geckotheglorious] 06/9/2022 09:17

c3479z
Yes let's put it in context.

UK infrastructure was built to service 50- 55 million.

Population of UK in 1997 - 58.3million


Population now - 68 million
Net inflow 250,000-275,000 per year STILL

How many new power stations built?
How many new reservoirs?

This is why we have the problems we do - we are overpopulated in UK but especially in England where the majority of us live

We have be governed by idiots for far too long and the current situation isnt sustainable.

See Power cuts this Winter!
In a first world country!

[c3479z] 06/9/2022 09:04

to put it in context:
150 000 died with Covid,
there may be 1000 coming on boats each day but a far greater number arrive through airports and stay on, I would guess,
many EU citizens returned to their countries after Brexit and employers are complaining all the time of a shortage of labour, so how does it all add up?
Even if Inland had the capital to develop its sites in Hillingdon and Hounslow, a shortage of grid capacity, due to the number of datacentres opened along the M4 corridor would presently be an impediment, that's the sort of country in which we live!

[robertspc1] 06/9/2022 09:01

Wow that's a shocking RNS, albeit not that surprised. Total failure of Board responsibility. Current and previous Chairman & NXDs were pathetically weak. At least for once the CEO and CFO are the biggest losers

[geckotheglorious] 06/9/2022 08:54

oh dear oh dear oh dear.
What a disastrous RNS.

Key is that this September land sale for a profit of £25m

"Provided this sale is completed by 30 September 2022 the Group is expected to make an operating loss of approximately £4.3 million and a loss before tax of approximately £12.1 million"

Which would significantly alleviate the pain


All the planning delays, whilst the population surges from migration/illegal entry to UK has consequences.

You cant blame property companies/govt for not building enough houses when Nimbyism prevents the building of such - and these people complaining and getting planning permission delayed are nearly always the same people that are fine with lax Immigration policies and illegal entry to the country.

1000+ daily illegal immigrants crossing the channel. Where are they going to be houses. And the impact of housing THEM displaces OTHERS here legally looking to council accommodation etc.

Either we need to ease building restrictions or clamp down on population growth in UK because the current system is a shambles and unsustainable.

NAV of c 65p - wonder how "solid" that is.

Ultimately it looks like Inland will be snapped up by one of the majors.

Time will tell.

Might be worth a punt at these level but the economic backdrop is pretty dire imo hence I've held fire from buying so far.

[horndean eagle] 06/9/2022 08:38

what is really tricky to gauge is why land disposals don't seem to lead to large chunks of debt reduction. If you could have a breakdown of NAV you might get a better sense of what is what. Wicks has been a disaster. I remember meeting him 10 years ago at a Mello event and nav is lower than what it was back then. He had previously built up businesses and then sold out to the housebuilders. Seems like this time around he was happy to ride the gravy train rather than do right by shareholders.

[hybrasil] 06/9/2022 08:37

I mean of INL

[farnesbarnes] 06/9/2022 08:35

As sad a story as this is, it is also totally avoidable from an investor perspective. I was lambasted for suggesting this was a sinking ship over 12 months ago: high site staff turnover is a huge red flag signifying lack of morale, lack of leadership. The investment case was even less rosy.

But this is also indicative of the construction industry. An era of cheap money is coming to an end. The indebted will go to the wall. Fitter and leaner will merge.

[my retirement fund] 06/9/2022 08:30

Seems to be staring at longer term insolvency here, needs a large rescue imo. The share buy back looks like a clear scam now, I assume that was done to get wealthy connected shareholders out at a decent level in time ? It was always a company set-up to trouser directors money by selling equity, even back in 2009, some companies have form, this was one of them.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 06/9/2022 08:26

In terms of land values I think that land with planning will have a robust valuation attached to it (assuming the planning permission isn't a basket-case). But land without planning permission.....is a much harder to assess.

The cost (and huge risk) of actually capturing planning has risen substantially for my company, over the last 2 years. It's not so much consultants fees that have risen (they have); it's the time taken for planning to be determined. What used to take 12 months is now 21 or 22 months. and the really big schemes? ridiculous timeframes.

Look, in the old days (pre-covid) planning was painful but nowadays it's torture. We used to have to do pre-application meetings (costly) with the boroughs (early engagement) but suddenly these are now not wanted (because the boroughs don't have the resources to engage with us and they've realised that the fees they are charging simply don't make up for the work-load needed). In my experience they will do everything they can to stop you submitting, they'll then do everything they can to stop you from getting a planning application validation (because the clock starts ticking from validation, not from planning application submission) and they'll do their utmost to kick your application down the line in terms of a decision.

You can't engage with them - they do everything they can to stop you from ringing them directly......and then there's the turnover of staff to contend with.

In my experience the turnover of staff is directly related to the toxicity of the dept they're working in. it's a thankless task - damned if you do, damned if you don't. combine that with the fact they've been inundated with homeowners trying to extend their homes etc etc......and planning has ground to a halt imo.

Why don't you simply appeal things then? Appeals are at a year's waiting time at the moment pretty much.

And every month's delay you've got to find the equity to pay the staff, to pay for the funding you've taken out......so, as I say....land without planning faces headwinds in terms of valuation imo.

And INL have said exactly the same in their RNS this morning.

[cc2014] 06/9/2022 08:17

#5129

There's only one question you've got to ask.

What rate on they going to pay on the debt when it comes up for refinancing?


And I'm happy to give an answer on that one, which is a shedload more than they are paying at the moment.

[hugepants] 06/9/2022 08:12

3 August 2022

Inland Homes plc

('Inland Homes' or the 'Group')

Appointment of new Auditors

BDO LLP have resigned as the Group's auditors and have confirmed that there are no circumstances in connection with their resignation which need to be brought to the attention of the Group's shareholders or creditors.

Oh really so its just a coincidence? I'm out. I don't believe a single word this company says.

[eezymunny] 06/9/2022 07:58

What a mess.

Could be a wipe-out here. Or may have upside. If you take a 40% haircut on all the property/devt assets it should still be worth more than 20p/share. But who can say where things end up? Can we trust the numbers? What's going to happen to land values?

Tricky!

[oi_oi_savaloy] 06/9/2022 07:53

You mean of INL Hybrasil or the company you actually work for?

[mr hangman] 06/9/2022 07:42

Same old story, as soon as a company announces they are buying back their shares, time to get out

[hybrasil] 06/9/2022 07:35

One of our board appointees has great experience of insolvency

[oi_oi_savaloy] 06/9/2022 07:32

I think so - they'll have to sell parts of the land bank off on individual bases perhaps to get the debt down to the point that a trade-buyer will actually transact.

At the moment there's very real debt and a nominal land bank value (there's always a diversion of values between seller and buyer!). Whereas if they sell and actually transact and get that debt down.....perhaps someone will come in for the rump. All in all....not good.....disaster in fact.

[peter27] 06/9/2022 07:28

Strategic review means they have been unable to find a trade buyer.

[inlandinvestment] 06/9/2022 07:22

chickens .. coming home to roost. will be interested so see who puts a positive spin on this ....

[gamwah] 06/9/2022 07:19

Lesson learnt here, good shout on buybacks never thought of it that way but never made sense! Should have sold out when the first director left. Good luck to anyone left in hopefully someone comes and takes this over

[oi_oi_savaloy] 06/9/2022 07:08

Definitely Bagpuss. All their mates got out whilst those without the true info, stayed in.

[bagpuss lives] 06/9/2022 07:02

No pleasure in seeing that RNS however the buyback now just screams that it was allowing someone to offload their shares and the news was all held back until they were sorted.