Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[propsulike] 11/7/2022 23:51

I have finally signed up...mainly to persuade Savaloy to continue the sensible and considered analysis of INL. Don't be put off by bitter traders losing money

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 23:30

Some points to lo look at from the Half year results....


"Net gearing as at 31 March 2022 had been significantly reduced to 55.1% (30 September 2021: 64.5%; 31 March 2021: 79.1%)

"in the current market, Inland's high quality land assets are in strong demand and we plan to take advantage of this in the second half of the Group's financial year through targeted land sales."

" Cash at bank £27.5m ( £12.1m)

" On 19 April 2022, the Group announced that it will undertake a share buyback programme of up to £1m"

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 22:56

grahamg8

re - NAV 106p

We only can put figures that we have otherwise is only speculation.

But as they are considered to be land sales and land has been going up year after year ( as is house prices ), then expect the NAV to be higher than lower.
It will help to go higher, the £1M buy back at a very low price mainly now, so far is 2,307.178 shares, when some were expecting only 2M and pay 46p.
Today could have been the last time buying if they bought about 181.000

note:
gross debt - cash in bank = net debt
Net debt : No, of shares = NAV

[geckotheglorious] 11/7/2022 20:21

Thanks for the great comments chaps n chapesses.
Debt is a concern, but coming down reasonably quickly.

I do wonder what the "real NAV" is rather than the estimated 106p/sh because I suspect it is lower.

but it is still significantly higher than the current share price so.......

Food for thought

:)

[tresham] 11/7/2022 17:58

There is obviously a buyer because about 1% of the company has gone through the market today. A company with problems but still having valuable assets.

[grahamg8] 11/7/2022 17:18

master RSI you are correct that the debt is down due to the land sales, but fail to mention that your NAV of 106p is also out of date for the same reason. It might have gone up or down depending on the carrying value. INL are silent on this point which just adds to the fear that we may be losing money on each deal and the write downs are hidden for the time being.

[gamwah] 11/7/2022 17:16

Thankyou! Still above x3 earnings for debt but between now a finals maybe more will be paid down.

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 15:46

I suspect much the same over here.....

EU to slash growth forecast but signals no sign of recession

(Alliance News) - The European Commission on Monday said it will again cut its growth forecast for this year and hike its expectations for inflation, but it signalled it saw no sign yet of recession in Europe.

"What we see is that economic growth is proving quite resilient this year. Still, one can expect some downward revision and even more so for the next year because of many uncertainties and risks," EU executive vice president Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters in Brussels.

He was giving a sneak preview of the commission's most up-to-date forecasts for the EU's 27 member states that are due on Thursday.

The commission, the EU's executive arm, in May already sharply cut expectations for growth in the EU to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, down from a forecast of 4.0% and 2.8% just months earlier.

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 15:07

Gamwah / net deb 97

not exactly, since then there was 2 RNS of land sales of £19.2 and £12.7 coming in.... so the debt comes down to £64.3M
Net deb was ....... at 31 March 2022, net debt stood at £96.2m

6 july 2022
Land sale
Inland Homes plc (AIM: INL), the housebuilder, partnership housing developer and regeneration specialist focused on the South and South East of England, today announces it has exchanged contracts for the sale of 22 existing homes along with a plot of land for one single dwelling with Wilton Park, Beaconsfield for a sum of £12.7m.
-------------
4 july 2022
As previously announced in October 2020, this land and build contract was for £21.3 million and a total of £2.1m was received on exchange, with the balance of £19.2m, payable on legal completion in mid-July 2022.

[c3479z] 11/7/2022 13:37

why are they busy buying back their shares when the more pressing objective is to reduce debt? they also have a large site ready for development at Hillingdon Circus but, as far as I can see, lack the capital resource to start.

[gamwah] 11/7/2022 13:34

I see that their key priority is to get this debt down, but as you mention the inevitable crash ( who knows when it happens) will likely cause companies like INL severe stability issues. If that doesn't happen though and they stay inline surely value to be had here. You have probably highlighted one of the reasons why this is down so much.

[mallorca 9] 11/7/2022 13:23

What will happen here when the property market collapses - post interest rate hikes !
Far too much debt ... could go under.

[gamwah] 11/7/2022 13:20

Financial outlook is unchanged forecast for 15.6 PBT according to sharepad, discount to NAV, MCAP 70m. Net debt 97 is a negative along with worry about project. Costs\overun, but isn't this to cheap now or am I missing something in the background?. I am underwater here so obviously I need to look deeper!

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 12:45

The MM that got the large sell must have run out of that cheap shares to sell
the seller must have been around early till have found a MM to take them in their book, but by then everybody knew and the shares were mark-down

10:30:45 27.10p 226,100

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 12:40

Gecko

The choice is yours
I can only say on NAV of 107p and share price at 27.50p. it means you can have £5 on just paying £1.

[geckotheglorious] 11/7/2022 12:06

Not looked in at Inland in ages...the 12% mark down today peaked my interest given that most of the Property/building companies have been reporting decent results & future prospects. property prices continue to rise across the UK as well, and the recent "sales" news and reduction in company debt were, I thought, a positive.

On the negative side, high inflation, high input costs, and a likely economic slowdown.

Am tempted at these levels tbh.

[cielos] 11/7/2022 11:58

>>>>> oi_oi_savaloy / There's nothing I've posted that is biased towards or against INL

You may try reading again your posts
Do everybody a favour and concentrate on being less bias, IC mistakes on posting 2 weeks in a row the same, is enough.

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 11:30

Stock Markets Jun 04, 2021 13:43

Despite the economic uncertainties due to the pandemic, the UK housing market has remained robust over the past year. According to the Office For National Statistics:

"Recent price increases may reflect a range of factors, including pent-up demand, some possible changes in housing preferences since the pandemic and a response to the changes made to property transaction taxes across the nations."

Global real estate group Savills (LON:SVS) further highlights:

"House prices grew by 2.1% in April... This was the strongest month-on-month increase since February 2004 and puts annual UK house price growth at 7.1%. House price growth is likely to reach double digits during the summer. Demand remains strong... But the supply of homes for sale has not kept pace with the level of demand."

In fact, the demand for new homes across the UK is robust. At present the government has a target of 300,000 new homes annually.

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 11:09

The sector has been bullish and Gleeson is not strange either today.....

" MJ Gleeson . The housebuilder says full-year results will be "significantly" ahead of expectations. "

Last Friday....

Shares in Vistry Group PLC (LON:VTYV) rose on Friday after the U.K. housebuilder said it expects its full-year profit margin to beat estimates...

[hybrasil] 11/7/2022 11:08

Please don’t stop posting for that reason.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 11/7/2022 10:41

Cielos. I don't work for INL. But I do work in the industry. And I'd love it if INL shares rise .....but we have to face facts......unless you're seeing a different picture to me? If you are - post away.

There's nothing I've posted that is biased towards or against INL - just opinion on INL or otherwise based directly on my current experience in the industry.

I think you were out of order posting my profile...but I've nothing to hide. I think that reflects on you rather than me. And I try to make time to post. It's important to me.

But tell you what. I'll stop posting. Make you happier.

[farnesbarnes] 11/7/2022 10:28

I see it's been marked down sharply this morning.

[cielos] 11/7/2022 10:01

>>>>> oi_oi_savaloy

You posts have a desire to see the shares lower, I wonder if you suppose working company, has anything to do with it, or wanting to buy cheap?

Most likely is "malaise" due to covid and you haven't managed to get rid of it yet, posting to often for a hard working man.

[master rsi] 11/7/2022 09:36

re - IC lemings

I had thought that something like this could have happened on Friday because there was no reason for the number of sales.

[kev0856153] 11/7/2022 09:27

PMSL. The IC lemmings are complete idiots. The hardcopy version of exactly the same sell rating hit the streets just on Friday there a week after the online version. The result being the hardcopy readers selling into good news from land sales released after the online sell rating went out.