Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 09/11/2015 16:00

He does need to be more circumspect re Chinese companies.

[salchow] 09/11/2015 13:06

Perhaps Simon Thompson is now being a bit more circumspect in general. There seems to have been too many novices jumping into whatever he mentioned. I will be very happy with a steady increase over the next 6 months on top of my existing gains. The days of the price doubling over a short period have surely gone. In fact, I would now like to see the company increase the dividend somewhat.

[peter27] 09/11/2015 12:06

we now have the ST tip in IC but he only says run profits and has not revised his target of 80 and break up of 100 which is a bit disappointing.

[dt1010] 06/11/2015 16:42

I wonder who they sold their Woolwich site to.

[ravin146] 06/11/2015 16:22

Interesting pickup late in the day...showing good strength considering other builders are down atm. Hopefully more good news on the way.Gla

[manrobert] 06/11/2015 15:13

it would be nice if we knew which builders had bought plots from inland,

[dt1010] 06/11/2015 14:38

Barratt or Taylor Wimpey will buy Inland Homes at some point I reckon.

I am holding out for between £3 to £4 in the next 3-5 years.

[sparkyhd] 06/11/2015 11:22

£2 is my target

[shanklin] 06/11/2015 11:11

That was tongue in cheek :-) Shame there is not a broker note giving an up-to-date perspective.

[shanklin] 06/11/2015 11:10

So INL is worth £2/share?

[manrobert] 06/11/2015 10:48

very good point made by both of you. in addition the Southampton site on the waterfront must be a huge attraction to a large builder. asset value is the key here.

[igbertsponk] 06/11/2015 10:36

Indeed David.
76 homes going up by £14.5m is £190k up each. And looking at those they have sold and those up for rent you'd not expect any of them to be worth more than £750k in their current knackered state.
This suggests that the remainder of the site they picked up for relative buttons.
Assume the 76 homes ARE worth £750k a pop (toppy, but this is crazy Beaconsfield). That's £57m. Take this off the GDV of £250m leaves £193m for the remaining 300 homes. So an average of £643k a home. Feasible, given not many social housing units and there will be quite a few £1m+ houses on the greenest bits of the site.
I'd expect your £60m valuation uplift to be conservative.
One thing that does interest me is the current stock of army houses. Many of these are on decent plots ( ) that could support much bigger houses than the current open plan edifices. Knock that pair down and stick three 4 bed town houses up for instance.
INL have done so well to get this site - they must be like pigs in mud figuring out exactly how to maximise the GDV!

[sogoesit] 06/11/2015 10:01

Nemat Shafik of the MPC says interest rates are not appropriate tool for "dealing with the housing market".
She says rates could "... go even lower, if needed."
So expect rates to go lower and mortgage lending to be controlled by BoE.

Soon they'll want to control our cash... Ooops Haldane already said that... and tell us how to invest and live our lives.
Is that what Cameroon, the socialist in capitalist's clothing, meant by the Big Society????

[davidosh] 06/11/2015 10:00

Just a few thoughts...

There are quite a few valuation clues in the results statement and I have always held the view that the true NAV of the Inland assets to another housebuilder would be at least three times higher than that shown using the previously recorded valuation method.

This is one...

This outstanding set of results has been helped by a revaluation surplus of £14.5m on the existing housing portfolio at Wilton Park, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire where 76 houses are being held as investment properties. This revaluation should help give shareholders an indication of some of the underlying value behind Inland's stated NAV per share. These properties are being rented out on assured shorthold tenancy agreements with 31 properties going under offer to tenants in the first few months. Once all the houses at Wilton Park are let, we expect gross residential rental income on this project to exceed £1m per annum.

Then later the section on WP says....

We achieved adoption of the planning brief for the development of this site during the course of the year. This confirms the capacity for at least 300 new homes, together with commercial space and the retention of a substantial number of existing former MoD houses.

This site is our 'jewel in the crown' and is geographically situated in one of the most affluent parts of the country outside Central London. We estimate the gross development value to be in the order of £250m. Shareholders' can rest assured that we are managing and nurturing this asset very carefully.


So...

If we know the cost of the land at WP and that it has already been increased in valuation by £14.5m because of 76 houses and the overall GDV is in the region of £250m I will be very surprised if the added value with full planning consent is not at least £60m and that is if we sold off all the plots available whereas there will be plenty of housebuilding profits to be made on top if they build there for the next three to five years no doubt. Do not forget Drayton Gardens has been a five year story and most of the plots were sold ahead.

The next interims will be very interesting with new EPRA reporting but we may be quite a while before knowing true value on Wilton Park and planning & deals are coming through almost every month now as Inland scales up

The interest rate stability to at least the end of 2016 is also good news of course.

David

[manrobert] 06/11/2015 08:44

most builders on the rise again.

[shanklin] 05/11/2015 18:27

Yes, I added a few just after midday.

[cfro] 05/11/2015 17:44

Good news for the builders today.

Added to my holdings straight away on the news.

[mr hangman] 05/11/2015 17:18

There is always one

[garybaldy] 05/11/2015 16:59

Topped-up 50K first thing this morning at 69p so a disappointing day at first but came good in the end.

Could someone please explain when and why 'Delayed Publication' of trades is used? In these days of transparency it seems a bit like market manipulation to me.

Thanks.

[ravin146] 05/11/2015 16:25

@sogosit seriously lol

As expected, slow reaction to the BoE news that interest rate rise may be pushed even further back.... but a positive reaction nonetheless.

Well done to those that that held on.

[manrobert] 05/11/2015 15:52

at last BLUE!

[luckymouse] 05/11/2015 15:25

no rise until 2017 - I guess no one wants to be in power when the music stops hoho - good for builders

[mr hangman] 05/11/2015 14:23

negative interest with negative equity ?

[sogoesit] 05/11/2015 13:47

If we follow other european countries (Denmark, Italy) wont we get negative interest rates before they start increasing? Now that could be interesting!