Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 23/2/2017 13:16

I confess that I was slightly hesitant in singing ol' Tel boy's praises.My wife holds one of his units trusts and it's done very well especially recently with the added benefit of dollar gains.Yes,he's quite a character.He outed bank accounting practises you'll remember when others were happy to go with the flow.I knew him pre Big Bang when he was a lowly associate member with his name coming up the rear of an extensive list of partners.I wasn't any great fan of the old boy partnership regime but I think that Big Bang ushered in changes which didn't favour the client.The integrated house has inherent conflicts of interest.Looking after the institutional client was in the broker's best interests during the days of single capacity.The day after Big Bang,the Lex column advised institutional clients,"you're on your own now".Very true.

[gregmorg] 23/2/2017 11:18

Yes, Steeplejack I too have a not dissimilar portfolio, probably fewer actual stocks, but with a heavy concentration on income. Within the portfolio there are just a couple of maverick stocks within the pharma sphere which have no yield. No prizes for guessing what these are!

I must admit Terry Smith has done terribly well and I do like and respect his investment approach and style. Trouble is I have never liked Unit Trusts or OEICS as the up front charges and subsequent annual charges eat into performance. Also the herd mentality forces the fund manager into buy/sell decisions especially with decisive market moves. Investment Trusts, I am OK with.

Terry Smith has mitigated charges but it is still there. I stressed his investment style as his known abrasiveness and pugilistic approach when he was in the City, either with P and D or subsequently Collins Stewart made people, including me, very wary. Yet the substance of what he has achieved cannot be faulted. It will be interesting if he out performs the" much rated guru" Neil Woodford over the medium term. I suspect he will!

As for Indivior I got in early as a result of an investment book. the name of it it will come to me at some stage! The American author highlighted some of the best investment opportunities can come with de-mergers with the owners of the spun off shares not realizing they owned the de-merged stock, let alone valuing it. Essentially they look to dump the stock and treat it as just a cash bonus. Enough examples proved the point. So I bought in the majority of my holding very early( within the first few weeks of the demerger) and have stuck with it. Full marks to my son who loaned me the book and pointed out the stock!

Thinking of Warren Buffett and risk and not touching things with big litigation risk. Bufffet analysis pays off time and time again but not without the odd scare. He bought into Salomon Brothers(of "Liars poker Lewis fame" when it hit a serious financial and legal crisis. He rescued the company and did a deal/financial settlement with the US Government and made a further fortune in the process.
So maybe as a disciple of Warren Buffet you shouldn't be too concerned about a spot of litigation!

[gregmorg] 23/2/2017 09:25

Steeplejack, Ref the last post or so. For periods I often used to trade on a daily basis when in a different life ( which was not too unlike your own--232!).

I had good runs, the odd brilliant one, and bad runs but in the end I found myself chasing my tail. Once done on a stock, most people just want to move on and so I would always find the need for a further rant rather weird! Analysis of events after a period of trading highlighted I was better at fundamentals although sometimes out of step with the rest of the market. That has never worried me!

I decided to stick to fundamentals and analysis which after all, had formed the basis of much of my career.

Moving on, the only other thing that came to me after yesterday's presentation was the mixed message probably forced on the company by its advisers. The Company stressed the dangers of very successful litigation against it and that in certain circumstances it might have to cut costs and downsize(summing it up). Then in the next breath it is talking of a developing M and A strategy--but down the line as well as revitalizing the US quote. Obviously these strands are incompatible other than maybe in a white flag situation which I feel sure is far from management thought!

Thinking of trading and related matters-- I was a bit annoyed with myself yesterday as I had thoughts of adding a tiny number of shares( certainly when down 54p) but first I needed to check my overall cash. By the time I did that the stock had rebounded 20p so I lost interest. That opportunity might, or might not, come again but I am relaxed about it.

[steeplejack] 23/2/2017 00:35

For the greater part,i've been guided in no small measure by Greg and his excellent interpretation of analysts meetings.This has been a rocky ride and I guess we've held each other's hand here.Not many other postings on this board.Thereagain,the stock only came to the market recently.

You're not a troll but you are a disappointment.Really,wasn't I the one who said "fasten your safety belts"?

I hold some 40 stocks worldwide and,relatively,this isn't that large a holding.Now,i do love Shire,and am smitten with Melrose and swoon over...

Anyway,thanks for your insights..grinder?..as a past Member of the London Stock Exchange and Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investment,your guidance is much appreciated.

[grindertraderuk] 22/2/2017 23:46

steeplejack,

"If you want to reduce risk and minimise the negatives then it's probably best to buy a tracker.Stock picking per se comes with health warnings."


Um, No. You invest in equities using a combination of Quality, Value and Momentum factors. You diversify over a number of different stocks in different sectors and you can manage the risk further using the likes of stop losses.

As Robbie Burns - Naked Trader says... 'if there is any negatives..get out'

You do not need a tracker fund.

Sorry but you ignore the very real risk here of litigation costs... you ARE emotionally attached to this stock and unfortunately, because of that you feel you can dictate to others how to safely invest.

One sign of this is that you seem to be the overwhelming poster on this bulletin board! Seen it time and time again and suggests your love of this stock mean NO negative comments allows.

However since I have mentioned a very Real 'negative issue' with this particular holding and now sold.. I'll leave you to um um um away and carry on loving this stock as I'll probably be accused of being a troll or something.

good luck

best regards. GrindertraderUK

[steeplejack] 22/2/2017 14:20

Thanks Greg,useful.I'm happy to hold and luckily have a profit cushion that stops me getting too panicky when they kick the chair from under the price.The litigation is understandably inhibiting for fresh buyers I guess ....albeit, the price performance since going 'solo' would suggest otherwise!

There's litigation,generic competition and an erratic President banging on about getting healthcare costs down and no dividend,but that apart,everything looks encouraging.

[gregmorg] 22/2/2017 14:11

Presentation fine.

The revenue and future revenues look pretty solid whilst the potential pipeline is impressive with upgraded peak sales etc. Monthly Bup will take time to build up because of the nature of the product i.e Physician injection etc. Cash position now positive and cash generation high.

Medium term M and A still on the agenda. The litigation aspect is highlighted in the interests of transparency and latest professional guidance. US listing just on hold given litigation but will be revived at some stage.

I felt it was very positive for the medium/long term on trading and potential but , in my opinion,the litigation aspect is going to overhang for some time. It seems some patent litigation news will develop within the next three months or so although for obvious reasons Co was circumspect re commenting on other DOJ and States litigation.

Nothing has changed my view that this stock has very interesting medium/long term potential but litigation fears and news will be a dominant factor for a while.

[steeplejack] 22/2/2017 14:11

Um..very glad you made a profit.

I never fall in love with stocks albeit I have a soft spot for pharmaceuticals in general.

I sold out of my ISA for a small profit here but held on in my regular trading account and have doubled my money.It is bucking bronco and there are uncertainties but that goes for equities in general from GEC,Enron,Royal Bank of Scotland to falsified accounts courtesy of Quindell to totally fictitious businesses like Globo.If you want to reduce risk and minimise the negatives then it's probably best to buy a tracker.Stock picking per se comes with health warnings.

[grindertraderuk] 22/2/2017 12:54

steeplejack

'Alternatively,you could concentrate on the very significant upping of revenue forecasts for new products or note the very high cash generation.'

Do you mean ignore the warning from the company that quote 'The final cost may be materially higher than this reserve' ?

I just stick to a policy of trying to reduce negativities within my holdings and try to remain unemotional (not fall in love with a stock) even when I have carried out enough research.

I sold out taking a 8% profit and will move on. I genuinely wish holders all the best here as we all have different methods of risk analysis when weighing up our portfolios.

good luck

[steeplejack] 22/2/2017 11:35

It does occur that the ongoing litigation is something of a poison pill for Indivior protecting it from takeover.If the litigation is resolved (which it will be in a few years) at say a not unreasonable cost,then a third party might be quite keen to purchase a company with a potential blockbuster drug on its books.Lot of imponderables when it comes to valuing this stock.

[gregmorg] 22/2/2017 11:30

Yes, the litigation aspect takes up a lot of space and is a big uncertainty against a very solid performance. The company will have been obliged by the auditors to spell out the dangers hence the cautionary comment.

Litigation uncertainty is indeed just that so how on earth can it be quantified. The trading appears to have gone well and continues. Accounting for provisions has put a bit of a dampener on the figures as well although this tentative reserve was announced months ago. The potential of the two big new products look even better with peak sales projections increased - with the caveat of clearing the remaining few hurdles. So something to look forward to if one can see beyond the litigation. Will see what today's presentation brings.

[grindertraderuk] 22/2/2017 10:29

Not good unfortunately. Profits down 3/4 and a serious paragraph here from the RNS


This announcement contains inside information.

The Company recorded a charge of $220m in the third quarter of 2016 for the investigative and antitrust litigation matters disclosed under Litigation Update on pages 8-9. The Company continues in discussions with the Department of Justice about a possible resolution to its investigation. The Company cannot predict with any certainty whether it will be able to reach ultimate resolution with the Department of Justice or any or all of the other parties, or the ultimate cost of resolving all of the matters. The final cost may be materially higher than this reserve

FT Take on this.

[grevis] 22/2/2017 10:05

Not encouraging!

[steeplejack] 22/2/2017 08:55

Operationally,everything goes well.Market share holding up,as are margins,excellent cash generation and upgrading of sales estimates for new products but after a recent good run in the shares,the market is understandably concerned about litigation issues.Sobering if circumspect statement below:-- In the event of a ruling in these matters that none of the claims of the asserted patents are valid and infringed by the ANDA-filers, and should there be FDA approval of one or more of the ANDAs and subsequent commercial launch of generic SUBOXONE(R) film, and pipeline products fail to obtain regulatory approval, there is the likelihood that revenues and operating profits of the Company will significantly decline. In these circumstances the Directors believe they would be able to take the required steps to reduce the cost base, however this would result in a significant change to the structure of the business.

[anthonyspencer1] 21/2/2017 17:38

Phase 3 cycle about to begin?

[anthonyspencer1] 21/2/2017 17:37

Buy on the rumour sell on the news.

[steeplejack] 21/2/2017 09:06

I suppose tomorrow we can look forward to the normal rollercoaster ride.Fasten your safety belts.

[gregmorg] 17/2/2017 11:06

Yes, this thing has been building up nicely ahead of the figures, due next Wednesday 22 Feb. The actual run of late has been quite impressive. Next week may reveal !

A couple of times in the past the stock has gone into a reversal within a few days after the figures but really I find this stock difficult to read. Having said that, I believe in the medium/long term. I had expected to be overseas on the day of the figures but a change of plan means that on the day I can tune into the investor briefing.

[steeplejack] 17/2/2017 10:28

All time high.

[gregmorg] 07/2/2017 16:47

This thing is looking perky for near term reasons I cannot fathom. I did swap a couple of the vein things into this one as a bit of a top up two months or so ago but felt I was purely fiddling. Balanced the holdings up a bit so we shall see which one wins out, I Suspect indivior wins but why this move now is beyond me !

[gregmorg] 03/2/2017 14:52

Whether true or not, this change in FD seems to be orderly succession planning with Cary having carried out his tasks thru assisting Indivior to find its feet as an independent public company. So the former FD of the Reckitt Pharma subsidiary changes title and becomes the new FD of the enhanced former Reckitt pharma subsidiary. On the face of it -fair enough!

[gregmorg] 03/2/2017 10:39

Market seems a bit more positive than Cantor.

Any day now we should get RNS official advice of results due on 22 Feb. Bit surprised we haven't heard much over the last couple of months re the outstanding legal issues . No doubt all will be revealed in time. Getting nearer to the next phase of product news.