Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 31/7/2017 15:34

As long as Bup Dept Monthly gets off to a better start than Varithena,I'll be happy!Talking of BTG,I have abandoned the BB there having attracted some disturbing vitriol.Some fairly inconsequential but admittedly frivolous comments on my part ,attracted the attention of a long term BTG devotee troll who seems willing to make a career writing diatribes at my expense.He seems to have a coterie of fans who swiftly vote up his more critical comments albeit I suspect he might have multiple usernames to support his cause!BTG is not a very happy BB,shorting conspiracy theories abound as you know and any criticism is given short shrift.BTG is probably correctly priced around current levels but what a tedious two years shareholders have endured.

Indivior has been an unexpected surprise for me.I've banked good profits on the way up but have now got a pretty heavy weighting.I like the fact that the bulletin board is so quiet.A noisy,dysfunctional BB is a real warning sign in my experience.

[gregmorg] 31/7/2017 13:09

Dare not Steeplejack, as I have too many . Having said that, as it goes up I will probably curse I didn't add more! Weakens, and I am glad I didn't!

Anyway the stock seems to be on course for a reasonable share price hike up but when --maybe not quite yet.

This news was spot on and the French announcement is nice but no game changer.
I can see the potential for Bup Dept Monthly and it having an impact on the size of the market but accept the Co view it may take time to build up. Pricing will be the determinate of that, of course. Jamie seemed to think the product launch will have a major revenue impact and quite fast as who would want the patches when a monthly injection is available! I prefer the cautious build up approach but obviously would be very happy with the faster result.

The Reckitt provision and the Indivior provision for apparently the same thing for a Claimed DOJ offence dating back to the Reckitt days is a puzzler to me and was not adequately explained by the CEO. Indeed he appeared to deliberately add to the confusion. The removal of these legal problems will help our cause but it does seem to be dragging on.

A build up in the product base will make all investors happier and that appears to be developing gradually. Nice to see debt/cash position but we have been warned of business development before reinstatement of dividend. The latter would really be helpful as our two specialist pharma's lack of yield weigh heavily from time to time. Arguments about looking at the total return are understood but do not quite cut it for me!

Without announcements this stock appears to loose momentum for months so one has to note that with share price expectations. In the meantime fingers crossed! If it did the Numis doubling projection(not seen just read about it!) wouldn't we be happy

[steeplejack] 31/7/2017 12:39

Good to hear your thoughts Greg.Added recently.

[el crow] 27/7/2017 20:25

✴✴ 036;✴✴

[steeplejack] 27/7/2017 09:50

Yes it's good but I agree, at some juncture the litigation could get ugly and take the icing right off the top.

[gregmorg] 27/7/2017 09:03

Upbeat statement by the CEO. Positive figures and forward projections. Mkt share and volumes holding up well. Debt coming down but the litigation , although a tad reduced, still sits there a bit like an elephant in the room as far as I can see. Will see what the presentation has to say later. Getting closer to an interesting growth phase. Spread of products still seems somewhat limited into the future that I can work out. Still not a bad day at all--so far!

[gregmorg] 08/5/2017 10:13

Back in the UK and thanks Steeplejack for a good summing up of the webcast. As you say it seems to be steady as you go for this quarter. AGM on 17 May but my guess is that is purely a formality. Dr Reddy verdict, when it comes, could provide some focus although I guess the DOJ settlement, if and when, will clear the air.

[steeplejack] 03/5/2017 14:47

Hi Greg ,hope all goes well.

Meeting lasted about half an hour.Around 5 questions,

Comprehensive RNS.Confirmed SUBOXONE 60 % market share.Managed Medicaid weakened towards quarter end which,with some de stocking,might be a trend that casts a bit of a 'shadow' over rest of year.Managed Medicaid saw some increased branded price competition rather than consequences of generic competition.Managed Medicaid is about 25-30% of sales in USA that accounts for 80% of worldwide sales.

Litigation-"No new news".Dr Reddy verdict could be imminent.Legislative news will roll out over rest of year.Asked about good cash generation,stated that would continue to accumulate until litigation liability known.Net cash of $182m at end of first Qtr.

Clearly delighted by progress of RBP 6000 and 7000 which will require incremental investment of between $40-60m in back half.6000 NDA application imminent.7000 year end.Feel that the product has very real advantages over competition,drew attention to flexible dosage regime.Distribution will be such that the product will be delivered direct to the physician,circumventing screw ups by patients .Whilst more expensive,this should reassure investors while putting pressure on competitors.Wouldn't be drawn on likely gross margin.Four presentations on RBP6000 phase 3 findings to be held in Washington,Fort Lauderdale and two other US locations during 2017.

All in all,very reassuring meeting.

Hope this helps Greg and that you're having a good time.You have not been charged for this post,albeit that it's accuracy cannot be guaranteed!Nice not to have the usual volatility today that normally accompanies results.

[steeplejack] 02/5/2017 17:09

First Qtr figures tomorrow.RNS at twelve noon.Analyst meeting 1 o clock.

[steeplejack] 27/4/2017 08:11

Okey dokey.I'll do my best.

[gregmorg] 26/4/2017 11:22

Steeplejack I will be abroad on the 3rd May so will not be able to listen in to the Co presentation/webcast until three days later when I return. A bit late then I know! I will be able to access the advfn site so any comments on the board that you make on the day will be helpful.

[gregmorg] 28/3/2017 16:38

A nice announcement really as it underpins the Monthly dosage concept. Might even relay to a few of the doubters that the eventual product roll out maybe not as slow as they have projected.

[gregmorg] 15/3/2017 12:36

thanks Steeplejack

[steeplejack] 15/3/2017 11:23

Quite right,there was a reference in the FT market report but it was reporting on the RBC downgrade(no mention of Jeffries).

[gregmorg] 14/3/2017 18:10

was told Jeffries did something similar which apparently was reported in the FT,Presume a comment in the market report.

[steeplejack] 14/3/2017 17:37

Yes,RBC Capital markets issued a sector perform recommendation,a downgrade,yet they upped their price target from 370p to 390p.

[gregmorg] 14/3/2017 10:02

ignore my last remark re m&a. on reflection just too early for anything like that.much of the litigation , patent disputes need to be cleared before the co can go there. Am told its a broker downgrade to perform in line. new product rollout will take time and co could lose market share in the meantime. Its a view.

[gregmorg] 13/3/2017 13:44

Of course we havent forgotten that the co did point to medium term M &A aspirations so will watch with interest!

[gregmorg] 13/3/2017 13:36

i forgot to suggest that maybe he was in two minds about it!

[gregmorg] 13/3/2017 13:35

yes that is good news. I got the text alert then had to get an internet connection but worth the effort! As you say someone somewhere possibly misread the signals.Great stuff that the product base has improved chances of being broadened.

[steeplejack] 13/3/2017 13:10

Indivior PLC
13 March 2017
Indivior PLC Announces Positive Top-line 12-Month Phase 3 Results Confirming Long-Term Safety Profile of RBP-7000 in Patients with Schizophrenia
Results represent the first demonstration of safety and durability of effect for a once-monthly injectable form of subcutaneously-administered risperidone in a long-term clinical trial ..

Looks like some scallywag knew there was an RNS on the way but didn't know the contents and speculated it could be bad news.

[steeplejack] 13/3/2017 09:51

No explanation found as yet which suggests that we might be due an update on litigation from the US.

[gregmorg] 13/3/2017 08:33

Am overseas and see the price has taken a wack this morning but no news according to advfn. No doubt all gets revealed in time!

[steeplejack] 09/3/2017 07:37

Interesting to note the strength of the US healthcare sector.In the last three months,it's up 10.6% ,top dog,narrowly outperforming the IT sector which comes second.Making up for a pretty dull 2016.